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It’s Thursday Night NBL action for Round 5 of the NBL26 season, as the Adelaide 36ers host the South East Melbourne Phoenix at the Adelaide Entertainment Centre.
The 36ers will be out to bounce back after a tough 79–103 loss to the Sydney Kings last Saturday night. Adelaide’s offense struggled to find rhythm, and Bryce Cotton was shut down effectively, finishing with just 7 points. Coach Mike Wells will need to come up with a plan to get Cotton free and firing against a defensively disciplined Phoenix outfit.
South East Melbourne, on the other hand, enter this clash full of confidence after a gritty 87–81 win over the New Zealand Breakers. The Phoenix will be looking to replicate the defensive pressure that Sydney used so well against Adelaide, while leaning on their own balanced scoring attack to keep the Sixers on the back foot.
Both teams are eager to build momentum early in the season, and with the Adelaide crowd behind them, the 36ers will be desperate to deliver a statement performance on their home floor. Expect a physical, hard-fought contest to kick off Round 5!
Adelaide 36ers vs SEM Phoenix Prediction, Thursday October 16th 2025.
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Adelaide 36ers vs SEM Phoenix Prediction
Venue – Adelaide Entertainment Centre
Tip Off – 7.30pm EST
Season Record
| Team | W-L | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide | 3-1 | 2-1 | 1-0 |
| SEM | 2-1 | 1-0 | 1-1 |
Season Scoring
| Team | PPG | Opp PPG | Game Total Ave |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide | 93.5 | 87.8 | 181.3 |
| SEM | 94.5 | 87 | 181.5 |
Quick Game Facts
- Six of Adelaide’s last seven home matches have gone UNDER the total match points line
- The home team has won 11 of South East Melbourne’s last 12 games.
- The favourite has covered the line in each of the last four games between Adelaide and South East Melbourne.
Quick Player Facts – Adelaide 36ers
- Bryce Cotton has been a nightmare matchup for the Phoenix — dropping 28.3 points per game across his last six meetings.
- Bryce Cotton’s teams are now 1-13 in his last 14 games in which he’s failed to score 15 points.
- Isaac Humphries has started the season strong, averaging 17.3 points through his first four games.
- Flynn Cameron is finding his groove, putting up 15.7 points and 4.7 assists over his last three outings.
- Dejan Vasiljevic has struggled against SEM recently, averaging just 11.8 points across his last four clashes.
- Zylan Cheatham is doing the work on the glass early, hauling in 10.3 rebounds per game to start the season.
- Zylan Cheatham is a perfect 8-for-8 from the free-throw line so far this year.
Quick Player Facts – SEM Phoenix
- Nathan Sobey has been leading by example, averaging 19 points and 6 assists through his first three games.
- John Brown III is setting the defensive tone, racking up a combined 15 steals and blocks across the opening three rounds.
- Owen Foxwell has been deadly from deep, hitting 7 of 12 threes (58%) to start the season.
- Jordan Hunter owns the glass against SEM, grabbing 7 or more rebounds in seven straight games versus the 36ers.
Prediction
The Adelaide 36ers will need to tighten up their defense in this clash, and they have every chance to do so against a Phoenix side that is strong defensively but lacks consistent offensive firepower. It’s rare for Bryce Cotton to have two poor games in a row, but the Phoenix will make scoring difficult. Expect the 36ers to bounce back, though this could turn into a low-scoring, hard-fought battle.