Brownlow Medal Predictor, Round 1 2022

The Brownlow Medal Predictor is back for AFL Season 2022.

All the projected votes, vote chances, key statistics, star ratings and leaderboards will be released gradually towards the latter stages of the 2022 AFL Season.  

The DailySportsBuddy Brownlow Medal Predictor uses a model that focuses on analysing matches and key statistics that have been consistent from past winners and top performers in previous Brownlow Medal Counts.

Statistics are not everything, but the award is generally a midfielder’s award, with midfielders dominating the top ten in previous counts.

It is impossible to predict the entire season’s votes in order, but with a bit of research, most players who are a chance of polling in any given match can be identified.

A Star ⭐ Rating is used to show the confidence level of each three-vote prediction.

⭐ = Tough Game to Pick

⭐⭐ = A Decent Chance

⭐⭐⭐ = Should get the Three Votes

The 2021 Brownlow Medal Predictor had a strike rate of 69.7% for three vote predictions last season.

There are many games each season where a player is a clear standout, and the three-star ratings for matches came in at 92.7%.

Click the link below to see all the results from the 2021 Brownlow Medal Predictor.

2021 Brownlow Medal Predictor Results

Here is the Brownlow Medal Predictor for Round 1 of the 2022 AFL Season.

Good luck picking a winner for any category this season, and always remember to Gamble Responsibly.


Brownlow Medal Predictor, Round 1 2022

Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs

Melbourne 14.13 97 – Western Bulldogs 11.5 71

(Melbourne by 26 Points)

Vote Chances

Ben Brown – 13 Disposals, 8 Marks (6 Marks Inside 50 and 2 Contested), 11 Score Involvements and 3 Goals

Jack Macrae – 39 Disposals (31 Effective and 15 Contested), 5 Marks, 11 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 9 Ground Ball Gets and 613 Metres Gained

Aaron Naughton – 14 Disposals, 6 Marks (3 Marks Inside 50), 7 Score Involvements, 342 Metres Gained and 4 Goals

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Melbourne) Clayton Oliver (1)

32 Disposals (24 Effective and 15 Contested), 7 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks, 6 Clearances, 8 Score Involvements, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 29 Pressure Acts and 549 Metres Gained

2 Votes (W.Bulldogs) Bailey Smith (2)

33 Disposals (22 Effective and 11 Contested), 7 Marks, 8 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 11 Tackles, 31 Pressure Acts and 528 Metres Gained

3 Votes (Melbourne) Christian Petracca (3) ⭐⭐⭐

38 Disposals (29 Effective and 16 Contested), 8 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 9 Clearances, 11 Inside 50s, 13 Score Involvements, 13 Ground Ball Gets, 27 Pressure Acts, 869 Metres Gained and 2 Goals

Note – Much like the 2021 AFL Grand Final, Christian Petracca stood out in this clash and was one of the main contributors in the second half.

Petracca won a stack of the football, and most of his disposals were damaging, which helped create many scoring chances. He will be very tough to beat for top vote honours.


Carlton vs Richmond

Carlton 14.17 101 – Richmond 11.10 76

(Carlton by 25 Points)

Vote Chances

Adam Saad – 21 Disposals (20 Effective), 6 Intercept possessions, 8 Marks, 6 Inside 50s, 4 Tackles and 520 Metres Gained

George Hewett – 28 Disposals (22 Effective and 13 Contested), 5 Marks, 4 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets and 1 Goal

Sam Docherty – 26 Disposals (25 Effective), 6 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 5 Inside 50s, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 467 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Carlton) Adam Cerra (1)

30 Disposals (24 Effective and 10 Contested), 6 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 6 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 542 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

2 Votes (Carlton) Matthew Kennedy (2)

33 Disposals (14 Contested), 8 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 11 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 514 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

3 Votes (Carlton) Patrick Cripps (3) ⭐⭐

30 Disposals (20 Effective and 11 Contested), 5 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 8 Clearances, 11 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 20 Pressure Acts, 679 Metres Gained and 3 Goals

Note – The Blues finished this game off well with a massive seven-goal last term, and Patrick Cripps will go in as the favourite for the maximum votes.

A few other Blues also had big games, but Cripps was a real standout and booted 3 goals.


St Kilda vs Collingwood

St Kilda 12.13 85 – Collingwood 15.12 102

(Collingwood by 17 Points)

Vote Chances

Jack Sinclair – 25 Disposals (17 Effective), 5 Marks, 4 Clearances, 5 Rebound 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 599 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

Jade Gresham – 24 Disposals (17 Effective), 6 Marks, 6 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 513 Metres Gained and 2 Goals

Taylor Adams – 25 Disposals (17 Effective and 16 Contested), 11 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 21 Pressure Acts and 2 Goal Assists

Projected Votes

1 Vote (St Kilda) Jack Hayes (1)

18 Disposals (16 Effective and 11 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 10 Marks (4 Contested and 2 Intercept Marks), 8 Score Involvements, 4 Ground Ball Gets and 3 Goals

2 Votes (Collingwood) Patrick Lipinski (2)

30 Disposals (23 Effective and 13 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 5 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 2 Goal Assists and 1 Goal

3 Votes (Collingwood) Jordan De Goey (3) ⭐⭐

27 Disposals (19 Effective), 5 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 5 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 12 Score Involvements, 464 Metres Gained and 2 Goals

Note – The Magpies were too good for the Saints on a Friday Night, and Jordan De Goey had a big finish when the match was up for grabs.

New Pies recruit Patrick Lipinski also had a solid game, but De Goey gets the nod with a couple of crucial second-half goals.

There are several contenders for the minor votes, but a mature age Saint in his first match really stood out and is a genuine chance to snag a vote.


Geelong vs Essendon

Geelong 20.18 138 – Essendon 11.6 72

(Geelong by 66 Points)

Vote Chances

Tyson Stengle – 20 Disposals (15 Effective and 10 Contested), 4 Marks, 6 Inside 50s, 11 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 466 Metres Gained and 4 Goals

Brandon Parfitt – 32 Disposals (16 Contested), 11 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 26 Pressure Acts and  623 Metres Gained

Joel Selwood – 27 Disposals (19 Effective), 6 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets and 3 Goal Assists

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Essendon) Nic Martin (1)

27 Disposals (24 Effective), 10 Marks, 8 Score Involvements and 5 Goals

2 Votes (Geelong) Tom Hawkins (2)

17 Disposals (11 Effective), 8 Marks (7 Marks Inside 50 and 4 Contested), 14 Score Involvements, 3 Goal Assists and 4 Goals

3 Votes (Geelong) Patrick Dangerfield (3) ⭐⭐

31 Disposals (20 Effective and 19 Contested), 4 Marks (2 Contested), 8 Clearances, 9 Inside 50s, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Spoils, 5 One Percenters, 511 Metres Gained, 4 Goal Assists and 1 Goal

Note – The Cats made easy work of the Bombers, and most of the damage was done in the early stages of the contest. Dangerfield was on from the get-go in this clash and racked up 22 disposals and 9 inside 50s before halftime. He will be the favourite for the maximum votes in the sizeable win.

The Cats dominated this match from the start and may very well sweep the votes, but it is hard to ignore the 5 Goals that stood out from the Bombers first gamer Nic Martin in the closing stages of the contest.


GWS vs Sydney

GWS 13.14 92 – Sydney 17.10 112

(Sydney by 20 Points)

Vote Chances

Tim Taranto – 28 Disposals (12 Contested), 5 Marks (2 Contested and 2 Marks Inside 50), 5 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 446 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

Oliver Florent – 20 Disposals (18 Effective), 5 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 12 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 439 Metres Gained and 3 Goals

Tom Hickey – 16 Disposals (11 Effective), 4 Marks, 7 Clearances, 6 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 9 Hit-outs to advantage, 4 Tackles and 20 Pressure Acts

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Sydney) Isaac Heeney (1)

25 Disposals (16 Effective), 5 Marks, 6 Clearances, 6 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 22 Pressure Acts, 413 Metres Gained and 3 Goals

2 Votes (GWS) Tom Green (2)

31 Disposals (24 Effective and 17 Contested), 8 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50 and 2 Intercept Marks), 8 Clearances, 7 Score Involvements, 12 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles, 22 Pressure Acts and 2 Goals

3 Votes (Sydney) Luke Parker (3) ⭐⭐⭐

21 Disposals (17 Effective and 12 Contested), 5 Marks (3 Marks Inside 50 and 3 Contested), 11 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 24 Pressure Acts and 5 Goals

Note – The Swans came from behind in this clash, and it was a massive 4 goal second half from Luke Parker that helped them get the win. Parker was brilliant in the second half and a real X-Factor in the closing stages.

The most consistent player on the ground was probably GWS midfielder Tom Green, but 5 Goals in a close match should get the maximum votes.


Brisbane vs Port Adelaide

Brisbane 11.14 80 – Port Adelaide 10.9 69

(Brisbane by 11 Points)

Vote Chances

Zac Bailey – 23 Disposals, 7 Marks, 4 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 3 Tackles (3 Tackles Inside 50), 23 Pressure Acts, 432 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

Marcus Adams – 20 Disposals (16 Effective), 10 Intercept Possessions, 11 Marks (6 Intercept Marks and 3 Contested), 5 Rebound 50s and 374 Metres Gained

Travis Boak – 32 Disposals (23 Effective and 19 Contested), 8 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks, 7 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 12 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 25 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Brisbane) Joe Daniher (1)

11 Disposals, 7 Marks (4 Contested and 4 Marks Inside 50), 7 Score Involvements, 336 Metres Gained and 4 Goals

2 Votes (Brisbane) Lachie Neale (2)

31 Disposals (26 Effective and 15 Contested), 7 Marks, 7 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 25 Pressure Acts and 439 Metres Gained

3 Votes (Port Adelaide) Dan Houston (3) ⭐⭐

36 Disposals (25 Effective), 6 Intercept Possessions, 12 Marks, 10 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 18 Pressure Acts, 775 Metres Gained and 2 Goals

Note – The Power did not win, but Dan Houston was brilliant in this match with a lot of run and carry and helped set up a stack of scoring chances, whilst booting a couple of goals in the process. Houston had a noticeable impact in the match and seemed everywhere at stages, but the Lions won the game on the back of a solid team performance, and 2020 winner Lachie Neale is a proven vote-getter.


Hawthorn vs North Melbourne

Hawthorn 11.12 78 – North Melbourne 8.10 58

(Hawthorn by 20 Points)

Vote Chances

James Sicily – 27 Disposals (19 Effective), 7 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks, 5 Rebound 50s, 4 One Percenters, 4 Spoils and 538 Metres Gained

Changkuoth Jiath – 24 Disposals (20 Effective), 9 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks (3 Intercept Marks), 4 Rebound 50s, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 7 One Percenters and 6 Spoils

Tom Mitchell – 29 Disposals (21 Effective and 11 Contested), 6 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 22 Pressure Acts and 431 Metres Gained

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Hawthorn) Mitch Lewis (1)

13 Disposals (10 Effective), 9 Marks (6 Contested and 5 Marks Inside 50), 7 Score Involvements, 3 Tackles Inside 50 and 3 Goals

2 Votes (North Melbourne) Luke McDonald (2)

27 Disposals (24 Effective), 13 Intercept Possessions, 12 Marks (8 Intercept Marks and 4 Contested), 4 Inside 50s, 7 Rebound 50s, 6 One Percenters, 5 Spoils and 548 Metres Gained

3 Votes (Hawthorn) Jack Gunston (3)

18 Disposals (10 Contested), 8 Marks (6 Marks Inside 50 and 3 Contested), 9 Score Involvements and 3 Goals

Note – A close contest for most of the day, and the Hawks pulled away in the final term.

This is a tough match to split the votes, but Jack Gunston was dangerous up forward and marked the ball in dangerous positions. Gunston is a chance to get the maximum votes, but there will be several contenders for the votes in this match.


Adelaide vs Fremantle

Adelaide 12.10 82 – Fremantle 11.17 83

(Fremantle by 1 Point)

Vote Chances

Jordan Clark – 20 Disposals (16 Effective), 5 Intercept Possessions, 6 Inside 50s, 7 Rebound 50s, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 6 One Percenters, 6 Spoils, 716 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

Rory Lobb – 13 Disposals, 6 Marks (6 Marks Inside 50), 9 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 4 One Percenters, 4 Spoils, 2 Goal Assists and 2 Goals

Matt Crouch – 30 Disposals (23 Effective and 13 Contested), 6 Marks, 9 Score Involvements, 12 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles and 17 Pressure Acts

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Adelaide) Ben Keays (1)

37 Disposals (25 Effective), 4 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 12 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 25 Pressure Acts and 615 Metres Gained

2 Votes (Fremantle) Andrew Brayshaw (2)

28 Disposals (12 Contested), 6 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 8 Clearances, 9 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles, 30 Pressure Acts and 713 Metres Gained

3 Votes (Adelaide) Josh Rachele (3)

14 Disposals (10 Effective), 5 Marks (3 Marks Inside 50), 8 Score Involvements, 4 Ground Ball Gets, 3 Tackles and 5 Goals.

Note – Another tough match to split the votes, and if the Crows had of won the contest, five goals from a debutant would probably be enough. Josh Rachele was brilliant in this clash, but the Dockers won the game, and Andrew Brayshaw had a significant impact.


West Coast vs Gold Coast

West Coast 12.8 80 – Gold Coast 16.11 107

(Gold Coast by 27 Points)

Vote Chances

Jamaine Jones – 21 Disposals (16 Effective), 6 Marks, 4 Inside 50s, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 17 Pressure Acts and 2 Goals

Noah Anderson – 23 Disposals (17 Effective and 10 Contested), 5 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 6 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 30 Pressure Acts and 435 Metres Gained

Jarrod Witts – 15 Disposals (10 Contested), 4 Clearances, 7 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 11 Hit-outs to advantage and 1 Goal

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Gold Coast) Touk Miller (1)

29 Disposals (21 Effective and 18 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 8 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 20 Pressure Acts, 629 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

2 Votes (Gold Coast) Izak Rankine (2)

23 Disposals, 6 Marks (5 Marks Inside 50), 11 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 17 Pressure Acts, 2 Goal Assists and 4 Goals

3 Votes (Gold Coast) Matt Rowell (3) ⭐⭐

33 Disposals (24 Effective and 22 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 8 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 15 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 18 Pressure Acts and 388 Metres Gained

Note – The Suns came from behind to win this match, and Matt Rowell won a lot of contested footy throughout the contest. Rowell was the most influential player on the ground and will be the favourite for highest vote honours, but small forward Izak Rankine booted four goals and was an X-Factor in the final term.


To see the results from the 2021 Brownlow Medal Predictor click the link below.

Brownlow Medal Predictor 2021 Results

Cheers and always remember to Gamble Responsibly.