Final Leaderboard, Round 18 Brownlow Predictor 2020
The final round of the 2020 AFL Season and we have a runaway leader of the 2020 Brownlow Medal Predictor, with Lachie Neale from the Brisbane Lions, projected to win the count on 29 Votes.
Neale has had a fantastic season in the middle of the ground for the Brisbane Lions and has had a solid showing in some of the key statistical areas that previous Brownlow medal winners excel in.
The season has come to an end, and we look forward to week one of the finals which starts with a Blockbuster between the Power and the Cats on Thursday Night. Be sure to check back for AFL Tips and AFL Player Props for all of the 2020 AFL Finals.
Here is the Brownlow Medal Predictor, for Round 18 of the 2020 AFL Season.
Be sure to check back each week of the 2020 AFL Season for an in-depth look at the some of the better players for each round and who should get the votes.
Round by Round analysis of the Brownlow Medal Count. Who gets the Brownlow Votes and who has the best chance to become the Brownlow Medal Winner on Brownlow Medal Night.
North Melbourne vs West Coast
North Melbourne 4.10 34 – West Coast 7.7 49
(West Coast by 15 Points)
Vote Chances
Liam Ryan – 15 Disposals (10 Contested), 4 Marks, 7 Score Involvements and 2 Goals
Shannon Hurn – 23 Disposals (91% Efficiency), 9 Intercept Possessions, 9 Rebound 50s and 576 Metres Gained
Jackson Nelson – 22 Disposals, 5 Marks, 8 Intercept Possessions and 10 Rebound 50s
Projected Votes
1 Vote (North Melbourne) Jy Simpkin (2)
The Kangaroos lost the match, but were in it for the majority of the contest, and a couple of their midfielders were the better players on the ground. Simpkin kept getting the football in this match and racked up 32 Disposals, including 12 Contested. Covered the ground well all night and was good without the footy with 5 Tackles. He is a decent chance to poll votes, despite the loss.
2 Votes (North Melbourne) Jed Anderson (9)
Anderson has been a bright spark for the Kangaroos this season and finished the season off well. He racked up 30 Disposals, including 12 Contested and used the football at an impressive 87% Efficiency. Also had 5 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s and a massive 499 Metres Gained throughout the match. Was also dangerous going forward and set up teammates with 8 Score Involvements and booted a goal. Was probably the best player on the ground, but always tough to get it in a loss.
3 Votes (West Coast) Andrew Gaff (12)
Gaff has stepped up in the absence of some of the Eagles hardball winners, and in this match, he racked up 26 Disposals, including 14 Contested. Also had 4 Clearances and 5 Inside 50s in the game and is in some great form come finals. Does a lot of running out on the footy field, which is always noticeable with a high possession count.
St Kilda vs GWS
St Kilda 12.10 82 – GWS 3.12 30
(St Kilda by 52 Points)
Vote Chances
Brad Hill – 14 Disposals, 436 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
Stephen Coniglio – 23 Disposals (10 Contested), 6 Marks and 6 Score Involvements
Lachie Whitfield – 28 Disposals, 13 Marks, 6 Rebound 50s and 467 Metres Gained
Projected Votes
1 Vote (St Kilda) Hunter Clark (3)
The Saints defender has been solid all season and finished the season off well. Spent time in the middle of the ground in this clash and racked up 16 Disposals, 5 Clearances and 5 Tackles. Looks comfortable in the middle of the ground and is a decent chance to poll in the win.
2 Votes (St Kilda) Rowan Marshall (10)
Marshall spent the majority of the first half up forward and virtually had no impact. Was given more time up the ground in the second half and had a huge impact. 9 of his 18 Disposals were contested, and he racked up 4 Clearances. 2 of his 7 Marks were contested, and the majority of them were taken in the second half, to set up the win. Also kicked a goal and should poll votes in this match.
3 Votes (St Kilda) Jack Steele (19)
Steele has only polled 5 Brownlow Votes before this season, but should get a lot of votes this year. If you go back through some of the projected votes for previous rounds, there are five other matches where he is considered a vote chance, so he could potentially poll 20+ votes in the count. He was the best player in the big win over the Giants with 14 of his 18 Disposals being contested, and he used the footy at 83% Efficiency. Also had a massive 10 Clearances, 7 Tackles, 9 Score Involvements and booted 2 Goals, to be the favourite for maximum votes in the win.
Essendon vs Melbourne
Essendon 7.7 49 – Melbourne 10.8 68
(Melbourne by 19 Points)
Vote Chances
Dylan Shiel – 25 Disposals (96% Efficiency), 6 Clearances, 7 Score Involvements and 1 Goal
Ed Langdon – 23 Disposals, 13 Marks and 6 Score Involvements
Mitch Brown – 20 Disposals, 13 Marks and 6 Score Involvements
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Essendon) Zach Merrett (16)
Another productive game in the middle of the ground for Merrett and he racked up 25 Disposals, at 84% Efficiency. Also had 5 Clearances and 7 Marks, but it may be his work off the football that may help him snag a vote in this one, with 9 Tackles.
2 Votes (Melbourne) Max Gawn (14)
Gawn finished the season off in style with his presence in the ruck. Won the ruck battle with 26 Hit-outs and helped his midfielders get first use of the football. 17 Disposals, 4 Marks and 6 Score Involvements and he should poll votes, although this was a challenging game to split the projected votes.
3 Votes (Melbourne) Christian Petracca (20)
Petracca finished off a fantastic season with a possible best on ground performance. Was reliable for the majority of the encounter and got a lot of the football late, to help the Demons win this match. 23 Disposals, 7 Marks and 5 Inside 50s throughout the match, and he also racked up 415 Metres Gained. Also had 6 Score Involvements and booted a goal. If he has more votes than projected at the final round and Neale gets a few less, it may get interesting.
Adelaide vs Richmond
Adelaide 4.9 33 – Richmond 12.5 77
(Richmond by 44 Points)
Vote Chances
Reilly O’Brien – 19 Disposals, 29 Hit-outs, 7 Marks (4 Contested)
Brad Crouch – 26 Disposals, 8 Clearances, 4 Tackles and 5 Inside 50s
Kane Lambert – 18 Disposals, 6 Marks, 5 Tackles, 5 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements and 1 Goal
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Adelaide) Matt Crouch (6)
Crouch finished the season off well and was one of the Crows best in the back half of the season. Another 30 Disposals in this encounter, with 11 of those contested. Covers the ground well and had 6 Score Involvements in a low score for the Crows. Was one of the best midfielders on the ground and is good at finding space.
2 Votes (Richmond) Shane Edwards (2)
Edwards is a welcome return for another Tigers Premiership tilt, and he had an influence in the win. Never gets massive stats, but on this occasion, he racked up 18 Disposals, including 12 Contested and used the football at an elite 89% Disposal Efficiency. Was also good at getting the football out of congestion with 8 Clearances, and should poll votes in this match.
3 Votes (Richmond) Dustin Martin (16)
Previous count history would suggest that when Martin has an impact, he usually gets the three votes. A big game in this match with 16 of his 28 Disposals being contested, and over 70% of his possessions coming on the dangerous forward half for the Tigers. He always looks at moving the ball into an attacking position with 6 Inside 50s and a massive 496 Metres Gained. 2 of his 6 Marks were contested, and he had 6 Score Involvements and booted a goal, to more than likely get the three votes.
Brisbane vs Carlton
Brisbane 11.12 78 – Carlton 10.1 61
(Brisbane by 17 Points)
Vote Chances
Brandon Starcevich – 16 Disposals, 5 Marks and 9 Intercept Possessions
Callum Ah Chee – 13 Disposals, 10 Marks, 11 Intercept Possessions and 5 Rebound 50s
Matthew Kennedy – 23 Disposals (11 Contested), 5 Marks, 6 Clearances and 4 Tackles
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Brisbane) Daniel Rich (4)
Rich had a significant influence in the back half in this match and even went forward to boot a couple of goals. 10 of his 22 Disposals were contested, and he used the footy at an elite 86% Disposal Efficiency. His ability to read the play stood out in this match, and he racked up a massive 12 Intercept Possessions. Kept the ball moving forward on every opportunity with 5 Inside 50s and 441 Metres Gained, and should poll votes in the win.
2 Votes (Carlton) Sam Walsh (10)
Walsh has finished the season off in style and is a sneaky chance to finish with the most votes at the Blues, although Patrick Cripps will be challenging to surpass. A big impact in the middle of the ground in this match and 21 of his 31 Disposals were Contested. Also has 6 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s and 6 Intercept Possessions, to be a decent chance to poll in the final match of the year.
3 Votes (Brisbane) Lachie Neale (29)
Neale should already have the medal in the bag at this stage, unless some of the chasers have more votes than projected, which is always possible. Neale had 29 Disposals to finish off the season, including 16 Contested. The part that stood out in this match was his willingness to attack for the Lions, and he racked up a massive 9 Inside 50s and 627 Metres Gained. Also had 5 Clearances, 7 Score Involvements and 7 Intercept Possessions, to be the favourite for the maximum votes in the final round.
Hawthorn vs Gold Coast
Hawthorn 17.6 108 – Gold Coast 8.9 57
(Hawthorn by 51 Points)
Vote Chances
Paul Puopolo – 11 Disposals (82% Efficiency), 8 Score Involvements and 3 Goals
Dylan Moore – 25 Disposals (88% Efficiency), 8 Marks, 5 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements and 1 Goal
James Cousins – 24 Disposals (83% Efficiency), 7 Marks, 8 Inside 50s and 7 Score Involvements
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Gold Coast) David Swallow (2)
The Suns were outplayed in this match, but Swallow tried hard all day in the middle of the ground. 17 of his 27 Disposals were contested, and he used the football at 82% Efficiency. Racked up a massive 11 Clearances throughout the match and was one of the best midfielders on the ground, despite the loss.
2 Votes (Hawthorn) Tom Mitchell (9)
The 2018 Brownlow Medal Winner has not had one of his best seasons, but it was hard to expect too much after a significant injury. He racked up 34 Disposals in this match and used the football at 82% Efficiency. Also had 5 Clearances, 7 Marks and 7 Score Involvements to more than likely feature in the votes.
3 Votes (Hawthorn) Jack Gunston (4)
Gunston got off to a red hot start in this match and was dangerous up forward for the majority of the contest. Got most of his 18 Disposals deep in the Hawks attacking 50, and 6 of his 11 Marks were in the attacking 50 for the Hawks. Racked up a massive 12 Score Involvements and booted 4 Goals, to be the favourite for the three votes.
Sydney vs Geelong
Sydney 9.9 63 – Geelong 10.9 69
(Geelong by 6 Points)
Vote Chances
Josh Kennedy – 25 Disposals, 5 Score Involvements and 1 Goal
Luke Parker – 23 Disposals (12 Contested), 5 Marks, 4 Clearances and 6 Score Involvements
Cam Guthrie – 19 Disposals (90% Efficiency), 5 Marks, 5 Tackles and 1 Goal
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Sydney) Tom Papley (5)
The Swans almost ruined the Cats top 4 hopes, and Papley was lively up forward for the majority of the match. He racked up 17 Disposals and had 10 Score Involvements to provide the Cats with a lot of headaches. Could have kicked a bag of goals in this match with 7 Shots on goal, but only ended up with 2. A decent chance to poll votes based on the impact he had.
2 Votes (Geelong) Sam Menegola (9)
This has been Menegola’s best season, and some have him projected to get a lot of votes in the count. He is more of an outside midfielder and will have plenty of competition with Dangerfield, Guthrie, Duncan and Hawkins all having productive seasons. In this match 20 of his 25 Disposals were Kicks, and his elite running power got him free to take 10 uncontested marks. Also had 487 Metres Gained and should poll votes in the win.
3 Votes (Geelong) Patrick Dangerfield (16)
Dangerfield is a midfielder, but can go forward and have a significant impact when needed. This was one of those matches, and he helped spare the Cats of a potential upset to finish the season. Just the 14 Disposals, but 10 of those were contested, and he stepped up in the final term. Had 6 Inside 50s and booted 3 important goals, to be the favourite for the three votes in this match.
Fremantle vs Western Bulldogs
Fremantle 6.8 44 – Western Bulldogs 11.8 74
(W.Bulldogs by 30 Points)
Vote Chances
Marcus Bontempelli – 20 Disposals, 7 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements and 1 Goal
Caleb Serong – 25 Disposals (12 Contested), 6 Inside 50s and 6 Tackles
Luke Ryan – 25 Disposals (92% Efficiency), 9 Marks, 7 Intercept Possessions and 7 Rebound 50s
Projected Votes
1 Vote (W.Bulldogs) Lachie Hunter (3)
The Dogs needed the win to play finals, and Hunter stepped up with 35 Disposals at an elite 83% Disposal Efficiency. He has elite running power and covered the ground sufficiently to rack up 601 metres gained. Also had 5 Inside 50s, 7 Marks, 9 Score Involvements and booted a goal and may get all three votes, but there were a couple of others to consider.
2 Votes (Fremantle) Nat Fyfe (14)
The Dockers lost the match, but that hasn’t stopped Fyfe from racking up votes in recent years. He was very productive in this match and racked up 23 Disposals, including 12 Contested. Also had 6 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s and booted a couple of goals, to keep the Dockers in the match for periods.
3 Votes (W.Bulldogs) Tom Liberatore (4)
Liberatore never looks flashy out on the field, but this was his best match of the season. He is hitting form at the right time of the year and racked up 25 Disposals. 15 of those were contested, and he used the football at an elite 88% Disposal Efficiency. Racked up more key stats, with 7 Clearances, 8 Tackles, 6 Inside 50s and 12 Score Involvements, to be the favourite for the 3 votes.
Collingwood vs Port Adelaide
Collingwood 7.3 45 – Port Adelaide 9.7 61
(Port Adelaide by 16 Points)
Vote Chances
Scott Pendlebury – 23 Disposals (13 Contested), 7 Clearances and 6 Tackles
Robbie Gray – 25 Disposals and 6 Clearances
Darcy Byrne-Jones – 20 Disposals, 8 Marks and 7 Intercept Possessions
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Collingwood) Taylor Adams (10)
The Pies lost the match, but Adams played an excellent game in the middle of the ground. He racked up 26 Disposals and 6 Clearances throughout the match, and covered the ground well. Was also good without the football with 11 Tackles, and should feature in the votes.
2 Votes (Port Adelaide) Dan Houston (2)
Houston had an influence on the defensive half in this match and racked up 23 Disposals, including 17 Kicks. The part that stood out in the match was his ability to read the play with 14 Intercept Possessions. Also took 12 Marks, and should poll votes in the win.
3 Votes (Port Adelaide) Tom Rockliff (9)
Rockliff had a great match in the middle of the ground, and 15 of his 30 Disposals were contested. Was very good at the stoppages with 10 Clearances and managed to hit the scoreboard with a goal. Plenty of the football, and stepped up when the game was on the line in the second half.
Final Leaderboard – Round 18
| Name | Projected Votes |
|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | 29 |
| Travis Boak | 21 |
| Christian Petracca | 20 |
| Jack Steele | 19 |
| Zach Merrett | 16 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | 16 |
| Dustin Martin | 16 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | 15 |
| Patrick Cripps | 14 |
| Nat Fyfe | 14 |
| Max Gawn | 14 |
| Luke Parker | 14 |
| Nic Naitanui | 14 |
| Jack Macrae | 14 |
Value Bets
Patrick Dangerfield Top 5 Finish
Probably not the best value, but we have Dangerfield projected to finish in a tie for the top 5, with 16 votes. It is no secret that he polls well in the Brownlow with distinctive pace and his ability to shrug off tackles, as well as create scoring chances. Has polled 112 votes in his last four seasons and went in as favourite last season, only to be outpolled by Fremantle’s Nat Fyfe.
A few other Geelong midfielders in Cam Guthrie, Sam Menegola and Mitch Duncan stepped up this season so he may not get as many as projected, but is a proven vote-getter and once again had a productive season.
Team to Poll the Most Brownlow Votes
Port Adelaide
Port Adelaide had a fantastic season and finished the year on top of the ladder with a healthy percentage. Travis Boak, Ollier Wines, Tom Rockliff and Robbie Gray are Projected to poll votes as well as big forward Charlie Dixon. We have them projected to win this comfortably on 78 votes, followed by Geelong on 68, and Brisbane on 67.
Luke Parker – Top 10 Finish
Parker is projected to finish in the top 10 in the Brownlow Medal Predictor, and could poll close to 20 votes in the count. The only downside is that Sydney did not have a great season, however, they didn’t have many significant contributors in the middle of the ground with Kennedy missing a fair chunk of the season. Parker had a good year and should rack up votes.
Head to Head Matchups
Cam Guthrie vs Tom Hawkins (Cam Guthrie)
Clayton Oliver vs Tom Mitchell (Clayton Oliver)
Josh Kelly vs Toby Greene (Josh Kelly)
Luke Parker vs Taylor Adams (Luke Parker)
Nat Fyfe vs Sam Menegola (Nat Fyfe)
Nic Naitanui vs Lachie Whitfield (Nic Naitanui)
Ollie Wines vs Andrew Brayshaw (Ollie Wines)
Charlie Dixon vs Robbie Gray (Charlie Dixon)
Patrick Cripps vs Sam Walsh (Patrick Cripps)
Trent Cotchin vs Shai Bolton (Trent Cotchin)
Projected Player Votes
Luke Parker + 12.5 Votes
Marcus Bontempelli + 13.5 Votes
Nic Naitanui + 10.5 Votes
Sam Menegola Under 13.5 Votes
Most Votes last 8 Rounds
Petracca is favoured to take this one out, but the odds are not the most attractive. A couple of guys that had decent finishes to the season include Marcus Bontempelli and Patrick Dangerfield. The below table shows their projected finish and what they could poll if given one vote each time considered a vote chance throughout this Brownlow Medal Predictor.
Most Votes Last 8 Rounds
| Name | Projected Votes | Could Potentially Poll |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Petracca | 12 | 14 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | 11 | 14 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | 11 | 12 |
| Travis Boak | 10 | 11 |
| Nat Fyfe | 10 | 12 |
| Lachie Neale | 9 | 11 |
| Nic Naitanui | 8 | 8 |
| Sam Menegola | 8 | 9 |
| Zach Merrett | 8 | 8 |
| Luke Parker | 8 | 9 |
| Andrew Gaff | 8 | 9 |
| Dustin Martin | 8 | 8 |
If you are wondering how a certain player might fair in this years count, or have some predictions to share, leave a comment in the comments section, and we will get back to you with their projected votes.
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