10 NBA Daily Fantasy Secrets
NBA Daily Fantasy Sports competitions have been around for a few years now, and the daily jackpots continue to get bigger, especially on the US Platforms.
The game seems relatively simple, pick a few players in each position and ensure that your chosen players remain under the given salary cap.
Competition has grown in this space, and if you are to have a go at competing in some of the tournaments, you better make sure that you have done your research.
Now luck will always play a significant part in any form of chance, but an edge can be gained if the following ten principles are implemented. If they are applied over a period of time, participants won’t consistently make donations to the many DFS platforms.
You can be competitive in NBA DFS by simply entering one lineup, but there are many tournaments where participants enter many lineups to chase the big jackpot.
Ten Secrets to NBA Daily Fantasy
Lines and Game Totals
The first thing to look at on any given NBA Slate is who’s playing and whether or not the matches will be high scoring, low scoring, close or a blowout.
A game that is projected to be high scoring will allow for a lot more chances for players to load the stats sheet, but always be careful the match is not a blowout as star players get rested.
The Golden State Warriors dominated the NBA from 2014 to 2019, and they were involved in many matches that were over at halftime. This meant that Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Kevin Durant sat on the bench for many fourth quarters throughout their dominance.
This has an impact when choosing players as it did when Klay Thompson dropped 61 on the Indiana Pacers in the 2016/2017 NBA Season. He was on fire that night and sat the entire fourth quarter. Still a good pick, but it might have been the difference in an NBA DFS Tournament.
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Injuries
The other thing to look at is injuries and NBA Lineups.
An injury to a star player can change the way an entire NBA team will play, and generates value opportunities for inexpensive types that may have to fill the void.
Always good to keep an eye on last-minute outs for sides and plan ahead in case one of the stars chosen doesn’t take his spot.
This one is frustrating with Los Angeles big man Anthony Davis a Game Time Decision on almost every match he plays in recent years.
PACE
The Pace is the number of possessions there is for each team in an NBA Match. The faster sides play, the less they use the shot clock and the more possessions there are.
This poses an opportunity for many different statistics as there are more chances for players to score, rebound and set up teammates.
Usage Rate
Usage Rate is the percentage of team plays a player was involved in while on the floor. The play must end in either a field goal attempt, free throw attempt, or turnover to be counted as a player usage.
The NBA is loaded with star players, and unfortunately, that means a lot of a thing called Isolation Ball.
This can be a good thing for NBA DFS as players like Kevin Durant and Lebron James will have the ball in their hands a lot of the time.
Usage rate is important, and many bench players will come off the bench and take charge of the second unit.
Unfortunately, when a star player controls the majority of the play, some role players see less action. We saw that in the 2021 NBA Finals where Giannis Antetokounmpo took over and the likes of P.J Tucker and Brook Lopez spread out to the side and got out of the way. They were not involved in a lot of the plays, which will impact their fantasy score.
Projected Minutes
When two decent sides go at it, the match will be projected to be close. This is where keeping an eye on the Lines and Game Totals will come in very handy.
Star players will play more minutes in closer matchups as coaches will keep them out there as long as their side still has any chance of winning.
This is a spot to watch for potential blowouts as most chalky plays tend to sit when the game is done and dusted, and the defensive intensity wanes.
The projected minutes for a specific player can be estimated by taking into account the matchup, game totals and the lines. Of course, no method is perfect, and injuries will always play a part, but determining how many minutes a player might take the court will help choose players that may provide more value in a lineup.
Role Players
There are many star players in the NBA, which means a lot of Isolation Basketball in which the star player handles the ball and his teammates spread out and let him take his opponent on one on one.
Role players fit in well with star players, but they fail to load up the stat sheet regularly.
Role Players include defenders, shooters and various big men that play some minutes if needed. It is rare for a player that is predominantly a shooter to load the stats sheet up in the significant areas for a high fantasy score.
A recent example of a role player would be in the recent 2021 NBA Finals, in which the Milwaukee Bucks defeated the Phoenix Suns.
P.J Tucker was an excellent pickup for the Milwaukee Bucks, and he can play defence, is experienced and can shoot the three-ball from the corner if needed.
The Bucks let Giannis take over on offence for the majority of the series and Tucker was left playing his role which helped Giannis and the Bucks dominate the series.
Tucker’s statistics were not flashy, and his Usage Rate was low, but it’s doubtful Tucker or the Bucks cared too much as they became NBA Champs. He did come in relatively cheap on most fantasy platforms, so if he hit a couple of open three-pointers and grabbed a few boards, value would still be made.
Each side has their chosen role players, and many of these guys could impact if they were given the green light. However, the star players tend to dominate the offence on most NBA Teams, so steering clear of role players is ideal. Unless there is a clear injury to a star which may present the role player with an opportunity for a higher usage rate.
Finding Value
Basically, this means finding player options that are a good chance of beating their projected score.
Players are priced based on what they are projected to score on a given slate, but if a particular player in any position is coming up against a poor defence or the match might be close and high scoring, they are an excellent chance to smash their projection.
This is one of the more critical aspects to consider when choosing players in a NBA DFS Lineup. A player that is a higher price may not necessarily be the best value on any given slate.
A simple way of figuring this out on the DraftKings platform would be to multiply a players value by 5.
For example, if Stephen Curry is worth $10,000, he would need 50 Fantasy Points to hit his projected value. If Khris Middleton is worth $8,000 he would need 40 points to beat his value.
Other DFS platforms have players set at different salaries, so it would be important to try and figure out a way of calculating the projected value of the players chosen.
Defence vs Position
This is one of the best pieces of information and can be used on picking player props if you like the odd wager.
Now many would argue that they don’t play high-intensity defence in the NBA, and that is true to an extent. The NBA season goes for 82 games, there are 12 minute quarters, and the margin of all the matches doesn’t matter. This creates a lot of matchups where sides try things out, and star players get the benefit of ISO Ball and defensive intensity that isn’t at its peak.
There are still many good defenders in the NBA, and some sides will have a player that defends a particular position or player type well.
If matches are projected to be close, then the Defence vs Position stat will come more into play and choosing players that are coming up against sides that struggle to defend a specific spot will be of benefit.
Fading the Chalk
Fading the Chalk means choosing players that may not be as popular as others and trying to find an edge. For example, owning a player that has low ownership creates an opportunity over the field. If they beat their projected score and the others hit their value, a participant will be in the minority and around the top part of the leaderboard.
Bankroll Management
Now this one is important for any form, but a solid foundation of managing money is ideal in general.
You can be competitive in the NBA DFS space by researching the above, but keeping a tab on your wins and losses is always a wise idea. Never use money that you cannot afford, and always remember to gamble responsibly.
NBA Daily Fantasy is supposed to be fun, and stacking lineups is not needed to be competitive. There are several single entry competitions or double-ups in which the competition is reduced, and players can’t stack 100 plus teams.
Participants will have an advantage in the single entry comps, because they will have entered one team and not be cluttered with a plethora of different scenarios.
Where to Get the Information
Now you might wonder, how the hell do you find the time to do all this research, and where do you get it?
Of course, all of this information can be found for free online, but finding it is challenging and then sorting it out becomes a mission of organised clutter.
We are all pressed for time, that’s why it’s a lot easier just to let somebody else do all that research and have it right in front of us so we can choose a side that will be competitive on any given slate.
The team at DFS Army are professional DFS players, and most of the researchers are former winners that help others be competitive in that space.
They provide all the above information in one space, whilst there are Daily Cheat Sheets with all the best options for each position.
If you are keen on stacking together some lineups, their Domination Station is a great tool to use, but the cheat sheets and research station, which includes most of the above, usually is all a player needs.
You could get all the information on an NBA Slate on any given morning and use their cheat sheets to find the likely studs of the day.
DFS Army has all the required information for NBA, MLB, NFL, PGA and many more sports, but this platform is by far the Best DFS Optimiser going around.
Of course, there are no guarantees in any form of chance, but at the very least, if a participant applies the methods at DFS Army, they won’t consistently lose their bankroll.
The platform has valuable information for all the top DFS Sports and the Research Station can be used as a vital tool to pick player props.
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