Brownlow Medal Predictor, Round 17
Round 17 of the 2020 AFL Season is complete, and we are approaching finals in a shortened 2020 AFL Season. Some of the results in the early stages of Round 17 will shape the final eight at the conclusion of the season. An injury-ravaged West Coast Eagles side had one of their best wins of the season against the Saints, to keep their top 4 chances alive.
In what many believe are the two best sides in the competition, the Tigers and the Cats went at it on a Friday Night, and it was the Tigers that came out on top to win by 26 points.
Here is the Brownlow Medal Predictor for Round 17 of the 2020 AFL Season.
Be sure to check back each week of the 2020 AFL Season for an in-depth look at the some of the better players for each round, and who should get the votes.
Round by Round analysis of the Brownlow Medal Count. Who gets the Brownlow Votes and who has the best chance to become the Brownlow Medal Winner on Brownlow Medal Night.
St Kilda vs West Coast
St Kilda 6.14 50 – West Coast 9.11 65
(West Coast by 15 Points)
Vote Chances
Jack Steele – 26 Disposals, 8 Clearances, 6 Tackles and 5 Inside 50s
Tom Barrass – 15 Disposals (93% Efficiency), 7 Marks, 11 Intercept Possessions and 6 Rebound 50s
Liam Ryan – 16 Disposals, 4 Marks, 9 Score Involvements and 1 Goal
Projected Votes
1 Vote (West Coast) Nic Naitanui (14)
Naitanui came up against the duo of Ryder and Marshall, and won the ruck battle. He continues to have one of his finest seasons and was once again influential for the Eagles in the win. 16 of his 18 Disposals were contested, and he racked up a massive 9 Clearances and 7 Inside 50s throughout the match. A decent chance to poll votes, based on the impact he had.
2 Votes (West Coast) Andrew Gaff (9)
In the absence of some of the key West Coast midfielders, Gaff has stood up and got the most disposals on the ground. 13 of his 33 Possessions were contested and was good without the football with 4 Tackles. Gaff has polled well in previous counts, and these are the sorts of matches he traditionally polls well in. He had a lot of the football and covered the ground well with elite running power.
3 Votes (West Coast) Tim Kelly (12)
In what was the Eagles best win of the season, Kelly stepped up in the absence of key midfielders, and played his best match of the year. 20 of his 30 Disposals were Kicks, which helped him rack up a massive 513 Metres Gained. Was very good at stoppages with 9 Clearances and worked hard as half of his disposals were contested possessions. Covered the ground well and his work at stoppages helped create scoring chances with 9 Score Involvements, and he booted a goal.
Geelong vs Richmond
Geelong 4.7 31 – Richmond 7.15 57
(Richmond by 26 Points)
Vote Chances
Cam Guthrie – 23 Disposals, 9 Marks and 6 Tackles
Tom Stewart – 25 Disposals, 8 Marks, 8 Rebound 50s and 564 Metres Gained
Mark Blicavs – 18 Disposals (83% Efficiency), 7 Marks and 12 Hit-outs
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Richmond) Dylan Grimes (4)
Grimes should probably get the three votes as his impact in the early stages of the contest down back, helped set up the Tigers win. He continually made it tough for the Cats forwards throughout the match and managed a massive 12 Intercept Possessions. 4 of his 6 Marks were strong contested grabs, and he racked up 16 Disposals, at 81% Efficiency. He is a defender though, and history would suggest that defenders rarely poll maximum votes unless they have midfield like statistics.
2 Votes (Richmond) Dustin Martin (13)
Martin may get all three votes in this clash, but failed to kick a goal. Always looked dangerous when he went near the football and led the Tigers in Disposals, with 19. What stood out was his ability to get the Tigers attacking, and he racked up 8 Inside 50s and 7 Score Involvements, to have a significant impact on the result.
3 Votes (Richmond) Jack Riewoldt (3)
In a match where there were only 11 goals scored, Riewoldt kicked 4 of them and was a clear X-factor when the game was on the line. Looked confident and dangerous each time the Tigers went forward. Not a lot in terms of statistics, with just the 10 Disposals, but 2 of his 6 Marks were contested, and he racked up 7 Score Involvements and booted 4 match-winning goals. It was a challenging game to split the votes, as the Tigers rarely have too many standouts, but the three named had an impact and helped set up the win.
North Melbourne vs Fremantle
North Melbourne 5.5 35 – Fremantle 15.9 99
(Fremantle by 64 Points)
Vote Chances
David Mundy – 24 Disposals, 5 Clearances and 7 Score Involvements
Sean Darcy – 13 Disposals, (9 Contested), 22 Hit-outs and 1 Goal
Lachie Schultz – 14 Disposals, 4 Marks, 7 Score Involvements and 3 Goals
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Fremantle) Michael Walters (4)
Walters was again dangerous up forward, and if the ball goes down there, he will have an impact. It went down there a lot in the massive Fremantle victory. Just the 13 Disposals, but looked dangerous when the Dockers went forward, and 2 of his 7 Marks were contested. Walters is always switched on in creating scoring chances, and had 8 Score Involvements and booted 3 Goals.
2 Votes (Fremantle) Blake Acres (2)
Acres had the ball on a string in the early stages of the contest, and his running power helped the Dockers get the ball moving forward. Racked up a total of 24 Disposals in which 18 were Kicks, and took 9 Uncontested Marks. His 6 Inside 50s and massive 545 Metres Gained, made him a significant contributor in the Dockers win.
3 Votes (Fremantle) Nat Fyfe (12)
Fyfe had a big game and was very influential in the middle of the ground. 13 of his 25 Disposals were contested, and he used the football at an elite 84% Efficiency. 4 of his 7 Marks were contested in this clash, which helped create scoring chances with 7 Score Involvements. These are the sorts of performances that Fyfe has polled well in the past in, and he also had 6 Clearances to be the favourite for maximum votes.
Port Adelaide vs Essendon
Port Adelaide 11.13 79 – Essendon 4.5 29
(Port Adelaide by 50 Points)
Vote Chances
Connor Rozee – 18 Disposals, 6 Tackles and 6 Score Involvements
Dan Houston – 17 Disposals (94% Efficiency), 8 Marks and 8 Intercept Possessions
Darcy Byrne-Jones – 19 Disposals (15 Kicks), 4 Clearances, 5 Tackles and 6 Intercept Possessions
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Port Adelaide) Ollie Wines (12)
Another solid game in the middle for Wines and he racked up 28 Disposals and covered the ground well all match. Also had 5 Clearances, 5 Score Involvements and booted a goal, to be a decent chance to poll in the sizeable win.
2 Votes (Port Adelaide) Travis Boak (21)
Boak was again influential in this win and racked up 26 Disposals, including 12 Contested. Was consistent for the majority of the match and had 6 Score Involvements and booted a goal. Not as many of the key stats as previous games, but he was one of the best players on the ground and should feature in the votes.
3 Votes (Port Adelaide) Tom Rockliff (6)
Rockliff has had a consistent second half of the year and is one of the better tacklers in the comp. Racked up 6 Tackles in this match, but also got a lot of the football, with 31 Disposals. Also had 5 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements and booted a goal, to be the favourite for the maximum votes.
GWS vs Melbourne
GWS 11.8 74 – Melbourne 12.7 79
(Melbourne by 5 Points)
Vote Chances
Tom Green – 30 Disposals (21 Contested), 4 Clearances and 6 Score Involvements
Clayton Oliver – 23 Disposals (11 Contested), 7 Clearances, 7 Tackles and 4 Inside 50s
Christian Petracca – 22 Disposals (19 Contested), 6 Clearances, 6 Intercept Possessions and 1 Goal
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Melbourne) Stephen May (3)
May was again solid down back in this match, and may get all three votes, but defenders don’t typically poll too well in the count. 18 of his 19 Disposals were Kicks, and he used the footy at 84% Efficiency deep in the Dees defence. 2 of his 8 Marks were contested, and his 7 Intercept Possessions and 8 Rebound 50s should help him feature in the votes. Had a significant impact when the game was in the line, and made it very tough for the Giants forwards.
2 Votes (GWS) Josh Kelly (8)
Kelly was the Giants best player and kept them in the match at stages. 20 of his 24 Disposals were Kicks, and he racked up 13 Contested Possessions. The most noticeable part was his initiative with the football, and he racked up a massive 10 Inside 50s and 707 Metres Gained throughout the match. Should poll votes based on the impact he had, despite the loss.
3 Votes (Melbourne) Max Gawn (12)
Gawn won the ruck battle and was reliable for the majority of the match. Helped set up his midfielders with first use of the football with a massive 44 Hit-outs. Was also good at winning the football himself with 8 Clearances, and racked up 15 Disposals, including 9 Contested. It was a tough match to split the votes, but Gawn probably had the most significant impact on the result.
Carlton vs Adelaide
Carlton 8.8 56 – Adelaide 10.12 72
(Adelaide by 16 Points)
Vote Chances
Harry McKay – 8 Disposals, 6 Marks (5 Contested) and 4 Goals
Sam Walsh – 22 Disposals, 6 Marks, 6 Score Involvements and 6 Tackles
Matt Crouch – 28 Disposals, 4 Clearances and 7 Score Involvements
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Adelaide) Bryce Gibbs (1)
In his last game of league football against his old side, Gibbs showed glimpses of why he was the number one draft pick, way back in the 2006 AFL Draft. He racked up 27 Disposals in his final match, and 16 of those were kicks. Also, read the play well with 7 Intercept Possessions and 7 Rebound 50s throughout the match. His solid work down back resulted in 7 Score Involvements, and he is a decent shot at voting in his farewell game.
2 Votes (Adelaide) Rory Laird (8)
Laird continues to get it done in the back half of the year and helped the Crows to their third win of the season. On this occasion, he stepped up in the middle of the ground and racked up 27 Disposals, including 14 Contested. Also used the football at an elite 89% Disposal Efficiency. Covered the ground well and had 4 Clearances, 6 Score Involvements and 5 Tackles, to be a decent chance at racking up more votes.
3 Votes (Adelaide) Lachlan Sholl (3)
Some of the football experts and analysts have described Sholl as an elite user of the football, who may be a steal, as he was a late draft pick in the 2018 Draft. This was a breakout game for him, and he found himself free on a regular occurrence on a wing. Racked up 24 Disposals, including 19 Kicks and made smart decisions to rack up 627 Metres Gained and 5 Inside 50s. Also had 8 Score Involvements and booted 2 goals, to be the favourite for the three 3 Votes, but lower-profile players generally do not poll well in the count.
Hawthorn vs Western Bulldogs
Hawthorn 6.4 40 – Western Bulldogs 11.10 76
(W.Bulldogs by 36 Points)
Vote Chances
Bailey Smith – 25 Disposals, 4 Tackles and 1 Goal
Jack Macrae – 29 Disposals (10 Contested) and 9 Score Involvements
Josh Dunkley – 20 Disposals, 5 Clearances, 10 Tackles and 7 Score Involvements
Projected Votes
1 Vote (W.Bulldogs) Tom Liberatore (1)
Liberatore is starting to hit some form at the right time of the year and had a significant impact in the win. 14 of his 28 Disposals were contested, and he was good without the football with 9 Tackles. Also had 6 Intercept Possessions and is one of the more favoured players to poll votes in this match.
2 Votes (W.Bulldogs) Caleb Daniel (3)
Probably the best game of the season for Caleb Daniel and he may get all three votes. 21 of his 28 Disposals were Kicks, at a 79% Efficiency rating. Racked up 546 metres gained in the back half to go along with 7 Inside 50s, and his impact was noticeable. Also racked up 11 Marks and booted a goal, to be a challenger for the maximum votes, but his captain may pinch the three votes.
3 Votes (W.Bulldogs) Marcus Bontempelli (15)
Bontempelli was excellent in this match and history from previous counts would suggest that he will get the three votes. 17 of his 28 Disposals were contested, and he used the football at an elite 82% Efficiency. His impact was noticeable with 11 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s and 6 Tackles and seemed everywhere at stages. 2 of his 8 Marks were contested, and he racked up 6 Score Involvements, and will more than likely get the maximin votes.
Sydney vs Brisbane
Sydney 6.5 41 – Brisbane 11.7 73
(Brisbane by 32 Points)
Vote Chances
Jake Lloyd – 26 Disposals (20 Kicks), 7 Rebound 50s and 597 Metres Gained
Josh Kennedy – 26 Disposals (15 Contested), 8 Clearances, 10 Tackles and 5 Inside 50s
Oscar McInerney – 14 Disposals, 20 Hit-outs and 4 Clearances
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Brisbane) Jarryd Lyons (9)
Lachie Neale was well held in this clash and Lyons was one of the Brisbane midfielders that stepped up throughout the contest. He managed 20 Disposals, including 14 Contested, and read the play well with 7 Intercept Possessions. Not the biggest match in terms of stats, but he had 5 Clearances, racked up 481 metres gained and booted a goal, to be one of the favourites for votes in the win.
2 Votes (Sydney) Luke Parker (14)
Parker had an influence in this match and was probably the best midfielder on the ground. 18 of his 33 Disposals were contested, and he racked up 5 Clearances throughout the contest. Covered the ground well in the wet conditions, and even went forward to kick 2 Goals. The Swans lost the match, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Parker gets the three votes in this match.
3 Votes (Brisbane) Daniel Rich (3)
This was Daniel Rich’s best game of the season, and he had an influence from the back half, especially in the latter stages of the contest. 19 of his 23 Disposals were Kicks, and he used the footy at an elite 83% Efficiency. His teammates look for him to set up the play and that showed with 10 Uncontested Marks. The part that stood out, and the reason he may get the three votes, was the 623 Metres Gained from his elite kicking, and his ability to have an impact on both ends with 5 Inside 50s, and 6 Rebound 50s. A challenging game to split the votes, but Rich was one of the best Lions out there.
Collingwood vs Gold Coast
Collingwood 10.8 68 – Gold Coast 6.10 46
(Collingwood by 22 Points)
Vote Chances
Mason Cox – 8 Disposals, 7 Marks (4 Contested), 5 Score Involvements and 2 Goals
Lachie Weller – 23 Disposals (11 Contested), 5 Clearances, 4 Tackles and 4 Inside 50s
Touk Miller – 22 Disposals, 4 Clearances and 9 Tackles
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Collingwood) Jack Crisp (5)
Another solid display from the Pies defender and Crisp had a significant impact in this match. Racked up 23 Disposals at 78% Efficiency, and put the ball Inside 50 on 5 Occasions with elite running power. Also went forward and kicked a goal, to be a chance to poll votes from the back half.
2 Votes (Collingwood) Adam Treloar (7)
In his first game back, Treloar looked right at home in the middle of the ground and kept on winning the football, especially in the early stages. 12 of his 26 Disposals were contested, and he was good without the football with 5 Tackles. Had an impact in the middle of the ground and should poll votes in the win.
3 Votes (Collingwood) Jordan De Goey (6)
De Goey was on from the start, and it has been clear the Pies have missed having him in their forward line over the last couple of months. Wasted no time in having an impact, and had all the answers up forward for the Pies. Not a massive match from a statistical standpoint with just the 10 Disposals, but he racked up 7 Score Involvements and booted 4 Goals. Was dangerous when the ball went forward for the Pies and made the Suns defenders accountable.
Leaderboard – Round 17
| Name | Projected Votes |
|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | 26 |
| Travis Boak | 21 |
| Christian Petracca | 17 |
| Jack Steele | 16 |
| Zach Merrett | 15 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | 15 |
| Patrick Cripps | 14 |
| Luke Parker | 14 |
| Nic Naitanui | 14 |
| Jack Macrae | 14 |
For the projected votes from the previous rounds, click the links below, or click the Brownlow Medal Predictor TAG at the bottom of this post.