Brownlow Medal Predictor, Round 19 2021
A month left in the 2021 AFL Season, and the Geelong Cats are fast becoming the team to beat in the race for the Flag. The Bulldogs and Demons will challenge, but with Cats superstar Patrick Dangerfield finding form at the right time of the year and a list that has a lot of depth, the Cats are now the favourites.
The race for the 2021 Brownlow Medal is on, and we now have a clear favourite in Western Bulldogs star Marcus Bontempelli. There will be some challenges, and Bontempelli did poll less than projected last season, so if a similar thing occurs in 2021, it could be a close count.
Here is the Brownlow Medal Predictor for Round 19 of the 2021 AFL Season.
Be sure to check back each week of the 2021 AFL Season for an in-depth look at some of the better players for each round and who should get the votes.
Round by Round analysis of the Brownlow Medal Count. Who gets the Brownlow Votes, and who has the best chance to become the Brownlow Medal Winner on Brownlow Medal Night.
This Brownlow Medal Tracker features the players that have the best chance of getting the votes and three other players that are considered a vote chance.
A Star ⭐ rating is used to show the confidence level of each three-vote prediction.
⭐ = Tough Game to Pick
⭐⭐ = A Decent Chance
⭐⭐⭐ = Should get the Three Votes
Port Adelaide vs Collingwood
Port Adelaide 14.13 97 – Collingwood 10.9 69
(Port Adelaide by 28 Points)
The Power were forced to play their home game at Marvel Stadium in Melbourne, but they were too talented for a Pies outfit that did put up a fight.
In his 300th game, Travis Boak had a significant impact in the middle of the ground and was well supported by the in-form Ollie Wines.
A little known Power mid, Willem Drew will probably be the favourite for the three votes, and he had a good match as an inside midfielder.
Karl Amon was again flashy at times, whilst Charlie Dixon was a dominant presence up forward and provided the Pies defenders with many headaches.
For the Pies, Taylor Adams had a dominant first half, but was hardly sited after halftime. Jack Crisp is a genuine chance of votes and had a decent match on the defensive end, as did Jack Madgen. Brody Mihocek was also lively up forward for most of the evening.
Vote Chances
Charlie Dixon – 11 Disposals, 4 Marks (4 Contested and 2 Marks Inside 50), 7 Score Involvements, 4 Ground Ball Gets, 21 Pressure Acts and 4 Goals
Karl Amon – 24 Disposals (19 Effective), 8 Score Involvements, 6 Tackles (3 Tackles Inside 50), 18 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal
Jack Crisp – 30 Disposals (25 Effective), 10 Intercept Possessions, 13 Marks (5 Intercept Marks), 6 Rebound 50s, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles and 22 Pressure Acts
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Port Adelaide) Ollie Wines (23)
30 Disposals (13 Contested), 8 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 19 Pressure Acts, 572 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
2 Votes (Port Adelaide) Travis Boak (17)
30 Disposals (22 Effective and 16 Contested), 7 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 4 Rebound 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 26 Pressure Acts and 435 Metres Gained
3 Votes (Port Adelaide) Willem Drew (3) ⭐
32 Disposals (23 Effective and 17 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 6 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 13 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 27 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal Assist
Note – Tough to split the votes in this with a few of the usual Power mids having an impact. Drew was consistent throughout the contest and had a big third term to help set up the win. Not a big name, though, so never a certainty, but he was probably the best player on the ground.
Carlton vs North Melbourne
Carlton 11.11 77 – North Melbourne 18.8 116
(North Melbourne by 39 Points)
This match was close at the half, but the Kangaroos began controlling the match in the second half and ran away comfortable winners on the back of a big game from a key forward.
Nick Larkey booted seven goals in this clash and looked dangerous each time he went near the footy. The skills of another young Kangaroo, Tarryn Thomas were also on show, and he racked up a lot of the footy whilst booting four Goals.
Other Kangaroos that impacted were Jy Simpkin and Ben Cunnington, whilst Todd Goldstein gave them plenty of chances at first use of the football.
The Blues were disappointing in this clash, but Patrick Cripps was probably their best and snagged three goals.
Vote Chances
Jaidyn Stephenson – 24 Disposals (20 Effective), 8 Marks (3 Marks Inside 50), 4 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets and 3 Goals
Ben Cunnington – 27 Disposals (22 Effective and 13 Contested), 5 Marks, 10 Clearances, 5 Rebound 50s and 6 Ground Ball Gets
Todd Goldstein – 15 Disposals (11 Effective), 4 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 14 Hit-outs to advantage, 3 One Percenters, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
Projected Votes
1 Vote (North Melbourne) Jy Simpkin (9)
31 Disposals (23 Effective and 12 Contested), 8 Marks, 8 Clearances, 7 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 18 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal Assist
2 Votes (North Melbourne) Tarryn Thomas (3)
23 Disposals (20 Effective and 12 Contested), 4 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 4 Clearances, 9 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Inside 50s, 5 Tackles, 21 Pressure Acts, 509 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 4 Goals
3 Votes (North Melbourne) Nick Larkey (3) ⭐⭐
20 Disposals (15 Effective), 8 Marks (6 Marks Inside 50 and 3 Contested), 13 Score Involvements, 4 Ground Ball Gets and 7 Goals
Note – When a key forward boots a bag of goals in the modern game, they get noticed, and Nick Larkey had a massive impact in this match. Tarryn Thomas was also excellent and will challenge for the 3, but Larkey was a real X-Factor and had a real noticeable impact.
Brisbane vs Gold Coast
Brisbane 17.18 120 – Gold Coast 10.11 71
(Brisbane by 49 Points)
The Suns led this match for a significant length, but were overrun in the final term, and the Lions won the game comfortably.
Oscar McInerney had a significant impact in the ruck and racked up double-figure clearances, whilst Jarryd Lyons won the Marcus Ashcroft Medal for Best on Ground.
Hugh McCluggage had a quiet match until the final term and was a big reason the Lions managed to storm home. Lincoln McCarthy and Joe Daniher were lively up forward, whilst defenders Daniel Rich and Harris Andrews had good games on the defensive end.
For the Suns, Touk Miller was again one of their best and will welcome the support of Brayden Fiorini, who continues to rack up the football.
Vote Chances
Hugh McCluggage – 23 Disposals (16 Effective), 6 Marks, 9 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 661 Metres Gained and 3 Goal Assists
Lincoln McCarthy – 14 Disposals, 3 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 8 Score Involvements, 2 Goal Assists and 4 Goals
Touk Miller – 32 Disposals (21 Effective and 12 Contested), 5 Marks, 6 Clearances, 8 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 9 Tackles, 29 Pressure Acts, and 4 One Percenters
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Gold Coast) Brayden Fiorini (1)
41 Disposals (32 Effective and 14 Contested), 8 Marks, 4 Clearances, 5 Rebound 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles and 18 Pressure Acts
2 Votes (Brisbane) Oscar McInerney (5)
18 Disposals (16 Contested), 12 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 15 Hit-outs to advantage and 4 One Percenters
3 Votes (Brisbane) Jarryd Lyons (21) ⭐⭐
33 Disposals (18 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks, 4 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 22 Pressure Acts, 574 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
Note – Lyons won the medal and had a noticeable impact in the second half of the Q Clash. There were some other solid contributors, but hard to go past the impact Lyons had in the win.
West Coast vs St Kilda
West Coast 14.10 94 – St Kilda 13.8 86
(West Coast by 8 Points)
The Saints spent the week out West and took it up to the Eagles at Optus Stadium. The talented Eagles outfit was too good and held off a fast-finishing Saints side to snatch the win.
Dom Sheed was excellent when the match was up for grabs in the final term, and midfielders Elliott Yeo and Tim Kelly had a decent impact.
Nic Naitanui was again good in the ruck, whilst Andrew Gaff did a lot of running and used the footy well.
For the Saints, Max King took a stack of contested marks in the forward 50 and nearly willed the Saints a victory. The work ethic and smarts of Zak Jones was on show, and although Jack Steele didn’t win a lot of the football, he was good off the ball and racked up double-figure tackles.
Dan Butler also played one of his better games of the season and had an impact up forward.
Vote Chances
Tim Kelly – 26 Disposals, 5 Marks, 5 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 24 Pressure Acts, 592 Metres Gained, 3 Goal Assists and 1 Goal
Andrew Gaff – 29 Disposals (27 Effective), 10 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 4 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 402 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
Zak Jones – 32 Disposals (27 Effective and 13 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks, 7 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 22 Pressure Acts and 604 Metres Gained
Projected Votes
1 Vote (West Coast) Elliott Yeo (2)
24 Disposals (20 Contested and 17 Effective), 9 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 13 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles and 26 Pressure Acts
2 Votes (West Coast) Dom Sheed (11)
32 Disposals (24 Effective and 13 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks, 7 Clearances, 4 Rebound 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 446 Metres Gained and 2 Goals
3 Votes (St Kilda) Max King (4) ⭐⭐
13 Disposals (11 Contested), 9 Marks (8 Contested and 8 Marks Inside 50), 8 Score Involvements, 1 Goal Assist and 6 Goals
Note – Saints fans have been spoilt for the majority of the last twenty years with a player wearing number 12 taking a lot of contested marks inside the forward 50. Max King doesn’t quite look the same as Nick Riewoldt, but he made a statement in this match and showed he can really take a grab. He had the most significant impact on the match, but the Eagles won, and Dom Sheed kicked a couple of important goals late.
Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs
Melbourne 9.11 65 – Western Bulldogs 13.7 85
(Western Bulldogs by 20 Points)
The two top sides went at it on a wet Saturday Night at the MCG, and it was the classy Bulldogs team that got the job done.
Marcus Bontempelli again proved why he is the favourite for the Brownlow Medal this season with smart decision making and a willingness to attack with the football. However, he will have competition for the votes in this clash, with his midfield mate and renowned Brownlow Medal vote-getter Jack Macrae having a brilliant night and consistent throughout the match.
Defender Caleb Daniel also had a significant impact, as did Bailey Smith and Tom Liberatore.
For the Demons, Clayton Oliver stood out and was the Demons best, whilst Max Gawn did his usual thing in the ruck.
Vote Chances
Caleb Daniel – 34 Disposals (26 Effective and 16 Contested), 9 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks, 5 Clearances, 6 Score Involvements, 13 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 415 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
Bailey Smith – 26 Disposals (17 Effective and 10 Contested), 4 Marks, 4 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 9 Tackles, 30 Pressure Acts, 592 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assists and 1 Goal
Tom Liberatore – 27 Disposals (19 Contested), 6 Clearances, 6 Score Involvements, 15 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 31 Pressure Acts and 2 Goal Assists
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Melbourne) Clayton Oliver (26)
38 Disposals (25 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 4 Marks, 8 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 21 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 26 Pressure Acts, 3 One Percenters and 431 Metres Gained
2 Votes (W.Bulldogs) Marcus Bontempelli (28)
31 Disposals (13 Contested), 9 Clearances, 10 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 29 Pressure Acts, 3 One Percenters, 755 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 2 Goals
3 Votes (W.Bulldogs) Jack Macrae (21) ⭐
38 Disposals (27 Effective and 16 Contested), 5 Marks, 9 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 16 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 532 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
Note – Tough to split the votes in this match, with four players who could get the maximum votes. Clayton Oliver was probably the best player on the ground, but the Demons lost, so that is looking unlikely. Jack Macrae is a consistent, proven vote-getter from past seasons, and these are the types of performances that generally net him votes. Was consistent in every quarter and extracted the footy on a regular occurrence whilst using the footy at high efficiency. Bontempelli is a strong chance to pinch the three and extend his lead though.
Adelaide vs Hawthorn
Adelaide 16.6 102 – Hawthorn 13.5 83
(Adelaide by 19 Points)
The Crows were forced to host the Hawks in Melbourne and found some form in this match. They led from start to finish, and their big forward, Taylor Walker snagged four goals.
Midfielder Rory Laird was brilliant in this clash and seemed everywhere at stages. He won the hardball and also managed to hit the scoreboard for a couple of goals.
Ruckman Reilly O’Brien won the ruck battle and took a handful of contested marks, whilst defender Tom Doedee was rock solid down back all evening. Ben Keays also had a decent night in the middle.
A few regular Hawks had good matches in this one, but it wasn’t enough to topple the Crows.
Vote Chances
Tom Mitchell – 28 Disposals (21 Effective and 10 Contested), 4 Clearances, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 9 Tackles, 32 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal
Jaeger O’Meara – 24 Disposals (17 Effective and 13 Contested), 8 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 8 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 27 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal Assist
James Worpel – 28 Disposals (18 Effective and 11 Contested), 4 Clearances, 9 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 21 Pressure Acts, 529 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Adelaide) Tom Doedee (1)
22 Disposals (20 Effective), 11 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks (5 Intercept Marks and 2 Contested), 6 Rebound 50s, 4 Ground Ball Gets, 8 One Percenters and 8 Spoils
2 Votes (Adelaide) Reilly O’Brien (3)
23 Disposals (17 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 7 Marks (4 Contested and 4 Intercept Marks), 5 Clearances, 12 Ground Ball Gets, 8 Hit-outs to advantage and 19 Pressure Acts
Lock of the Week
3 Votes (Adelaide) Rory Laird (14) ⭐⭐⭐
36 Disposals (27 Effective and 20 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks, 10 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 16 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 26 Pressure Acts, 518 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 2 Goals
Note – Laird gets the lock of the week after a brilliant performance in the win. He has shown he is a proven midfielder and can win the footy and help set up teammates. An excellent match from the Crows midfielder.
Sydney vs Fremantle
Sydney 14.14 98 – Fremantle 8.10 58
(Sydney by 40 Points)
The Dockers came to play in this match and surprised the Swans with the early jump and a quarter-time lead. The talented Swans outfit proved to good as the match went on and they ran out comfortable winners.
Isaac Heeney had a big match for the Swans on the forward half booting five goals, and was well supported by the lively Errol Gulden.
Swan veterans Luke Parker and Josh Kennedy won the midfield battle, and Tom Hickey again impacted the ruck against the in-form Sean Darcy.
For the Dockers, Adam Cerra and Andrew Brayshaw both racked up a lot of the football and had decent matches.
Vote Chances
Errol Gulden – 23 Disposals (18 Effective), 5 Marks, 4 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles (3 Tackles Inside 50), 21 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal
Adam Cerra – 30 Disposals (20 Effective), 9 Marks, 4 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 586 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 2 Goals
Andrew Brayshaw – 34 Disposals (24 Effective), 6 Marks, 4 Clearances, 5 Rebound 50s, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles and 35 Pressure Acts
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Sydney) Josh Kennedy (5)
34 Disposals (26 Effective and 16 Contested), 6 Marks, 7 Clearances, 5 Score Involvements, 13 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 28 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal Assist
2 Votes (Sydney) Luke Parker (17)
30 Disposals (21 Effective and 11 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks, 7 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 19 Pressure Acts, 1 Goal Assist and 2 Goals
3 Votes (Sydney) Isaac Heeney (9) ⭐⭐⭐
22 Disposals (15 Effective), 11 Marks (3 Marks Inside 50 and 2 Intercept Marks), 8 Score Involvements, 403 Metres Gained and 5 Goals
Note – Heeney gave the Freo defenders many headaches and looked on from the start in this clash. 20+ disposals and 5 Goals usually is a recipe for maximum votes, and he will go in heavy favourite for the three votes in the win.
Geelong vs Richmond
Geelong 15.5 95 – Richmond 8.9 57
(Geelong by 38 Points)
The Tigers have been disappointing this season and were never really in this match. On the other hand, the Cats led from start to finish and are beginning to look tough to beat in the latter stages of the season.
Patrick Dangerfield was brilliant in this clash and kept the form going for the entire four quarters. Cam Guthrie did his usual thing in the middle of the ground and used the football at a high-efficiency rate.
Forward Tom Hawkins and Esava Ratugolea both booted four goals each, and defenders Tom Stewart and Lachie Henderson made it tough for the Tigers forwards.
The Tigers had an off game, but Jayden Short was probably their best in the loss.
Vote Chances
Tom Hawkins – 13 Disposals, 6 Marks (6 Marks Inside 50), 6 Score Involvements, 3 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 327 Metres Gained and 4 Goals
Issac Smith – 25 Disposals, 9 Marks, 5 Inside 50s, 4 Rebound 50s, 5 Ground Ball Gets and 534 Metres Gained
Esava Ratugolea – 6 Disposals, 3 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 4 One Percenters, 3 Spoils and 4 Goals
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Geelong) Tom Stewart (8)
25 Disposals (23 Effective0, 10 Intercept Possessions, 9 Marks (4 Intercept Marks), 7 Rebound 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 3 One Percenters and 421 Metres Gained
2 Votes (Geelong) Cam Guthrie (16)
34 Disposals (26 Effective), 7 Marks, 7 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 395 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
3 Votes (Geelong) Patrick Dangerfield (7) ⭐⭐⭐
28 Disposals (20 Effective and 18 Contested), 6 Marks (3 Contested), 6 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 12 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 518 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
Note – Dangerfield was brilliant in the win and is hitting form at the right time of the year. He won the hardball in this clash and used the footy well throughout the contest. The best player on the ground and had the most significant impact.
Essendon vs GWS
Essendon 7.11 53 – GWS 9.12 66
(GWS by 13 Points)
The final game of the round, and the Bombers couldn’t hold off the Giants, who pinched the match and finished the game well.
The elite ball skills of Lachie Whitfield were on show for the Giants and youngster Tom Green got better as the match went on and had a significant last term.
Defender Sam Taylor made it challenging for the Bombers forwards, whilst Brent Daniels and Harry Perryman made a solid contribution.
Some of the regulars for the Bombers had off matches, but Dyson Heppell was good, as was small forward Will Snelling and defender Jordan Ridley.
Vote Chances
Jordan Ridley – 25 Disposals (23 Effective), 6 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks (2 Contested and 2 Intercept Marks), 6 Rebound 50s, 6 One Percenters, 4 Spoils and 536 Metres Gained
Harry Perryman – 25 Disposals (20 Effective), 5 Intercept Possessions, 9 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 6 Rebound 50s and 467 Metres Gained
Brent Daniels – 17 Disposals (13 Effective), 4 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 25 Pressure Acts, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
Projected Votes
1 Vote (GWS) Sam Taylor (1)
21 Disposals (18 Effective), 7 Intercept Possessions, 11 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 5 Rebound 50s, 6 One Percenters and 6 Spoils
2 Votes (GWS) Tom Green (5)
29 Disposals (20 Effective and 11 Contested), 7 Marks, 6 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements and 9 Ground Ball Gets
3 Votes (GWS) Lachie Whitfield (3) ⭐⭐
35 Disposals (29 Effective), 10 Marks, 4 Rebound 50s, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 355 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
Note – Whitfield used the football well all match, but did not poll as well as projected last season. There were not many standouts in this clash, but he did have a noticeable impact with his elite foot skills.
Leaderboard – Round 19
Top 10
| Name | Projected Votes |
|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | 28 |
| Clayton Oliver | 26 |
| Darcy Parish | 24 |
| Jack Steele | 24 |
| Christian Petracca | 23 |
| Ollie Wines | 23 |
| Sam Walsh | 22 |
| Jarryd Lyons | 21 |
| Tom Mitchell | 21 |
| Jack Macrae | 21 |
To see the projected votes from previous rounds, click the Brownlow Medal Predictor 2021 on the menu bar. You can also click the TAGS at the bottom of this post or use the links below.
Cheers and always Gamble Responsibly