Brownlow Medal Predictor, Round 21 2021
The AFL Season is drawing to a close, and the Top 4 is almost set, with positions likely to change in the final two rounds.
The Melbourne Demons reclaimed the top spot on the AFL Ladder with a couple of results going their way and a win over the Eagles in Wet Conditions on a Monday Night.
The 2021 Brownlow Medal Count is shaping up for a close finish with several players still a chance with a couple of rounds left in the 2021 AFL Season
Here is the Brownlow Medal Predictor for Round 21 of the 2021 AFL Season.
Be sure to check back each week of the 2021 AFL Season for an in-depth look at some of the better players for each round and who should get the votes.
Round by Round analysis of the Brownlow Medal Count. Who gets the Brownlow Votes, and who has the best chance to become the Brownlow Medal Winner on Brownlow Medal Night.
This Brownlow Medal Tracker features the players that have the best chance of getting the votes and three other players that are considered a vote chance.
A Star ⭐ rating is used to show the confidence level of each three-vote prediction.
⭐ = Tough Game to Pick
⭐⭐ = A Decent Chance
⭐⭐⭐ = Should get the Three Votes
Geelong vs GWS
Geelong 8.17 65 – GWS 13.6 84
(GWS by 19 Points)
The Giants travelled to Geelong and caught the Cats by surprise in an impressive showing in which they led from start to finish.
In an impressive showing from some of the Giants defenders, Sam Taylor and Isaac Cumming had big nights down back and made it challenging for the Cats forwards to impact.
Tim Taranto was solid in the middle of the ground for most of the match and was well supported by Lachie Whitfield and Callan Ward. Toby Greene was also influential up forward for the Giants and booted four goals.
Captain Joel Selwood stepped up in the middle of the ground for the Cats, and Jed Bews and Tom Stewart had decent nights down back, but it wasn’t enough to topple the Giants.
Vote Chances
Joel Selwood – 27 Disposals (15 Contested), 4 Marks, 9 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 518 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
Toby Greene – 16 Disposals (12 Contested), 4 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 425 Metres Gained and 4 Goals
Lachie Whitfield – 34 Disposals, 7 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks, 8 Rebound 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 3 One Percenters and 726 Metres Gained
Projected Votes
1 Vote (GWS) Isaac Cumming (1)
34 Disposals (28 Effective), 8 Intercept Possessions, 4 Marks (2 Contested and 2 Intercept Marks), 18 Rebound 50s, 7 Ground Ball Gets and 984 Metres Gained
2 Votes (GWS) Sam Taylor (3)
21 Disposals (18 Effective and 11 Contested), 17 Intercept Possessions, 12 Marks (8 Intercept Marks and 2 Contested), 10 Rebound 50s, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 5 One Percenters and 3 Spoils
3 Votes (GWS) Tim Taranto (10) ⭐⭐
34 Disposals (23 Effective and 13 Contested), 5 Clearances, 5 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 9 Tackles, 32 Pressure Acts, 3 One Percenters and 2 Goals
Note – It is tough for defenders to poll votes in the Brownlow Medal Count, but Sam Taylor and Isaac Cumming had a noticeable impact in this match. Tim Taranto was solid in the middle all evening for the Giants, but it wouldn’t be at all surprising if a defender polls the maximum votes in this one.
Carlton vs Gold Coast
Carlton 8.9 57 – Gold Coast 11.10 76
(Gold Coast by 19 Points)
The Blues again couldn’t back up a solid performance the week prior, and the Suns took advantage and came from behind to win the match.
Touk Miller again had his usual impact in the middle of the ground and had a big second half to help set up the win.
Will Powell had a good game on the back half for the Suns and capped off an impressive showing with a goal of the year contender.
Noah Anderson found some form in the middle, and Brayden Fiorini kept up his recent good form for the Suns.
The Blues were disappointing in this one, but Nic Newman was busy down back and was probably their best player.
Vote Chances
Nic Newman – 25 Disposals (18 Effective and 10 Contested), 12 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks, 5 Rebound 50s, 7 Ground Ball Gets and 5 Tackles
Brayden Fiorini – 23 Disposals (18 Effective and 13 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 4 Marks, 4 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 11 Tackles, 22 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal
Alex Sexton – 20 Disposals, 10 Marks, 9 Inside 50s, 515 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Gold Coast) Noah Anderson (4)
30 Disposals (25 Effective and 10 Contested), 8 Marks, 8 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 4 Rebound 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 546 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
2 Votes (Gold Coast) Will Powell (2)
28 Disposals (25 Effective and 11 Contested), 9 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks, 10 Rebound 50s, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles, 6 One Percenters, 5 Spoils, 598 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
3 Votes (Gold Coast) Touk Miller (22) ⭐⭐
34 Disposals (27 Effective and 12 Contested), 7 Marks, 7 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 19 Pressure Acts, 1 Goal Assist and 2 Goals
Note – Another good game from Miller, and when the match was up for grabs, he stepped up. Will Powell was also very impressive in this match, but Miller will be the favourite for highest vote honours.
Richmond vs North Melbourne
Richmond 13.11 89 – North Melbourne 8.8 56
(Richmond by 33 Points)
The Kangaroos got the early break on the Tigers and had a decent halftime lead. However, the Tigers regrouped at the half and ran out comfortable winners to keep their finals hopes alive.
Jack Graham seemed everywhere in this match at stages and racked up many disposals whilst applying tremendous pressure on the opposition.
Nick Vlastuin was solid down back for most of the contest for the Tigers, whilst Liam Baker, Dion Prestia and Trent Cotchin stepped up when the match was up for grabs.
Quite a few players won a lot of the football for the Kangaroos, with the emerging Luke Davies-Uniacke leading the way. Jy Simpkin and Aaron Hall also racked up plenty of the football in the loss.
Vote Chances
Dion Prestia – 29 Disposals (24 Effective), 8 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks, 4 Inside 50s, 5 Rebound 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 24 Pressure Acts, 437 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
Jy Simpkin – 34 Disposals (12 Contested), 6 Marks, 5 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 516 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
Luke Davies-Uniacke – 38 Disposals (31 Effective), 6 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks, 5 Clearances, 5 Score Involvements and 5 Ground Ball Gets,
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Richmond) Liam Baker (3)
26 Disposals (22 Effective), 7 Marks, 9 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 5 One Percenters, 19 Pressure Acts, 2 Goal Assists and 2 Goals
2 Votes (Richmond) Nick Vlastuin (2)
30 Disposals (26 Effective), 10 Intercept Possessions, 14 Marks (5 Intercept Marks), 5 Rebound 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 3 One Percenters and 437 Metres Gained
3 Votes (Richmond) Jack Graham (5) ⭐⭐
36 Disposals (30 Effective), 8 Marks, 7 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 8 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 39 Pressure Acts and 472 Metres Gained
Note – Graham racked up a lot of the football and used the footy at high efficiency. He also applied a lot of pressure on the Kangaroos Mids and had a massive last quarter to be the favourite for maximum vote honours.
Adelaide vs Port Adelaide
Adelaide 7.9 51 – Port Adelaide 7.13 55
(Port Adelaide by 4 Points)
The Showdown took place on a Saturday Night, and despite an impressive early showing from the Crows, the Power came back and managed to pinch the win in a close one.
The standout for this match and the winner of the Showdown Medal was Port Adelaide Defender Allir Allir. He read the play well down back all evening and racked up double-figure intercept marks to be the best player on the ground.
Other Power players that helped stage a comeback included Ollie Wines, Willem Drew and Travis Boak. Defenders Riley Bonner, Dan Houston and Ryan Burton were also good throughout the win.
For the Crows, Rory Laird continued his impressive season in the middle, whilst Paul Seedsman, Jordan Butts and Harry Schoenberg all had decent games.
Vote Chances
Paul Seedsman – 31 Disposals (23 Effective and 10 Contested), 4 Clearances, 9 Inside 50s, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 18 Pressure Acts and 658 Metres Gained
Willem Drew – 23 Disposals (18 Effective and 15 Contested), 7 Clearances, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 10 Tackles and 27 Pressure Acts
Travis Boak – 27 Disposals (15 Contested), 4 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 8 Tackles, 21 Pressure Acts and 4 One Percenters
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Port Adelaide) Ollie Wines (25)
26 Disposals (17 Effective and 11 Contested), 5 Marks (2 Contested and 2 Marks Inside 50), 5 Clearances, 7 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 18 Pressure Acts, 461 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
2 Votes (Adelaide) Rory Laird (16)
31 Disposals (21 Effective and 18 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 6 Clearances, 6 Score Involvements, 17 Ground Ball Gets, 8 Tackles, 28 Pressure Acts, 3 One Percenters and 1 Goal Assist
3 Votes (Port Adelaide) Allir Allir (4) ⭐⭐⭐
21 Disposals (17 Effective), 16 Intercept Possessions, 11 Marks (10 Intercept Marks and 5 Contested), 6 Rebound 50s, 10 One Percenters, 8 Spoils and 400 Metres Gained
Note – Allir won the medal and despite being a defender was a clear standout. He read the play well and intercepted the football on a regular occurrence in the narrow win.
St Kilda vs Sydney
St Kilda 14.9 93 – Sydney 10.4 64
(St Kilda by 29 Points)
The Saints were one the sides that provided an upset in Round 21 and kept their season alive with an impressive win over the talented Swans outfit at home.
Jack Steele continued another impressive season and was the best midfielder on the ground. Rowan Marshall had a decent night in the ruck for the Saints, whilst Jack Higgins was lively up forward and Jack Sinclair solid on the defensive half.
The Swans had an off night, but Luke Parker was one of the better players on the ground and clearly the Swans most productive performer in the loss.
Vote Chances
Jack Sinclair – 25 Disposals (17 Effective), 10 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 9 Rebound 50s, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 4 One Percenters, 2 Spoils and 420 Metres Gained
Dean Kent – 15 Disposals (13 Effective), 7 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 6 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 4 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 28 Pressure Acts, 3 One Percenters, 2 Goal Assists and 3 Goals
Luke Parker – 30 Disposals (22 Effective and 18 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 4 Marks, 12 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 12 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles and 26 Pressure Acts
Projected Votes
1 Vote (St Kilda) Jack Higgins (1)
16 Disposals (12 Effective), 4 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 5 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 16 Pressure Acts and 4 Goals
2 Votes (St Kilda) Rowan Marshall (2)
25 Disposals (18 Contested and 17 Effective), 8 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks (3 Intercept Marks), 8 Clearances, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Hit-outs to advantage and 4 One Percenters
3 Votes (St Kilda) Jack Steele (28) ⭐⭐⭐
34 Disposals (27 Effective and 14 Contested), 6 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 6 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles, 26 Pressure Acts, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
Note – Steele is right up near the leaders with a couple of rounds left and will go into this match as the heavy favourite for three more votes to add to his tally. Another impressive performance and a noticeable impact to help set up the win.
Hawthorn vs Collingwood
Hawthorn 15.7 97 – Collingwood 12.6 78
(Hawthorn by 19 Points)
The Hawks have been pretty good over the last month, and they led from start to finish over the Magpies for an impressive victory.
Tom Mitchell was a clear best on ground and won a lot of the football throughout the contest.
Other Hawks that impressed included Chad Wingard, Blake Hardwick and Jack Scrimshaw, whilst small forward Dylan Moore was lively for most of the match. Jonathan Ceglar was also impressive in the ruck and held his own.
For the Magpies, the usual suspects in Taylor Adams, Jordan De Goey, Jack Crisp and Brodie Grundy all had solid games, but it wasn’t enough to defeat an impressive Hawks side.
Vote Chances
Blake Hardwick – 28 Disposals (25 Effective), 7 Intercept Possessions, 11 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 5 Score Involvements, 6 One Percenters, 5 Spoils, 467 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
Jonathan Ceglar – 20 Disposals (18 Effective and 13 Contested), 6 Marks (3 Contested and 2 Intercept Marks), 8 Clearances, 8 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 4 One Percenters, 3 Spoils and 1 Goal Assist
Taylor Adams – 30 Disposals (24 Effective and 10 Contested), 6 Marks, 6 Clearances, 5 Rebound 50s, 4 Tackles, 32 Pressure Acts and 438 Metres Gained
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Hawthorn) Chad Wingard (3)
30 Disposals (22 Effective), 4 Marks, 6 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 4 Tackles, 24 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal Assist
2 Votes (Hawthorn) Dylan Moore (4)
20 Disposals (15 Effective), 6 Marks (4 Marks Inside 50), 11 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 3 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 30 Pressure Acts, 4 Goal Assists and 2 Goals
Lock of the Week
3 Votes (Hawthorn) Tom Mitchell (25) ⭐⭐⭐
44 Disposals (37 Effective and 12 Contested), 10 Marks, 8 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 12 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 400 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
Note – Mitchell gets the Lock of the Week in an impressive showing. He racked up heaps of the football and used it at high efficiency to be a real standout.
Western Bulldogs vs Essendon
Western Bulldogs 12.12 84 – Essendon 15.7 97
(Essendon by 13 Points)
The Bombers needed the win to keep their finals hopes intact, and they were impressive in their win over the highly ranked Western Bulldogs team.
Big two-metre Peter Wright was the standout and provided many headaches for the Bulldogs defenders booting 7 Goals.
Zach Merrett and Darcy Parish were consistent for most of the clash in the middle, whilst Jordan Ridley impressed down back, and Sam Draper won the ruck battle.
The Dogs may have lost the match, but their two regular midfield contributors, Jack Macrae and Marcus Bontempelli were influential and helped keep the dogs in the match.
Vote Chances
Zach Merrett – 30 Disposals (26 Effective), 6 Marks, 5 Clearances, 7 Rebound 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 4 Tackles, 26 Pressure Acts, 426 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
Darcy Parish – 28 Disposals (21 Effective and 11 Contested), 9 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 17 Pressure Acts, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
Sam Draper – 11 Disposals, 4 Clearances, 9 Score Involvements, 14 Hit-outs to advantage, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
Projected Votes
1 Vote (W.Bulldogs) Marcus Bontempelli (29)
34 Disposals (25 Effective and 12 Contested), 4 Marks, 9 Clearances, 10 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 3 One Percenters, 18 Pressure Acts, 551 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
2 Votes (W.Bulldogs) Jack Macrae (25)
37 Disposals (29 Effective and 17 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 9 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 20 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal Assist
3 Votes (Essendon) Peter Wright (5) ⭐⭐
10 Disposals (8 Effective), 7 Marks (5 Marks Inside 50 and 3 Contested), 9 Score Involvements, 6 Hit-outs to advantage, 3 One Percenters, 3 Spoils, 16 Pressure Acts and 7 Goals
Note – Wright didn’t get a lot of the football, but was dangerous whenever he went near it. Forwards that kick bags of seven or more are genuinely the favourites for highest vote honours.
Fremantle vs Brisbane
Fremantle 8.6 54 – Brisbane 18.10 118
(Brisbane by 64 Points)
The Dockers were again outclassed at home, and the Lions brought the pressure to win this match by a comfortable margin.
Dayne Zorko was the standout in this clash with a lot of contested ball, inside 50s, and metres gained.
The defenders from the Lions played a big part in this clash, with Harris Andrews rock solid down back and the elite foot skills of Daniel Rich on show throughout the win.
Midfielder Hugh McCluggage was good when the match was up for grabs, Jarryd Lyons got better later in the game, and Joe Daniher snagged four goals. Charlie Cameron was also lively up forward and got better as the match went on.
The Dockers were disappointing in this clash, but Caleb Serong tried hard all day and won plenty of the footy.
Vote Chances
Joe Daniher – 17 Disposals (12 Effective), 7 Marks (3 Marks Inside 50), 10 Score Involvements and 4 Goals
Hugh McCluggage – 29 Disposals (20 Effective), 4 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 6 Tackles, 28 Pressure Acts, 592 Metres Gained and 2 Goal Assists
Jarryd Lyons – 29 Disposals (13 Contested), 8 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 30 Pressure Acts, 407 Metres Gained and 2 Goal Assists
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Brisbane) Daniel Rich (1)
28 Disposals (26 Effective), 8 Intercept Possessions, 11 Marks, 10 Rebound 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets and 643 Metres Gained
2 Votes (Brisbane) Harris Andrews (4)
20 Disposals (18 Effective), 11 Intercept Possessions, 9 Marks (3 Intercept Marks), 4 Rebound 50s, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 15 One Percenters and 14 Spoils
3 Votes (Brisbane) Dayne Zorko (14) ⭐⭐
34 Disposals (17 Contested), 8 Intercept Possessions, 7 Clearances, 11 Inside 50s, 5 Rebound 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 14 Ground Ball Gets, 10 Tackles (4 Tackles Inside 50), 25 Pressure Acts, 816 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
Note – The only concern with this one is Zorko was projected to poll in quite a few games last season and didn’t receive a single vote. He was a clear best on ground in this one and will be the favourite for highest vote honours.
West Coast vs Melbourne
West Coast 9.9 63 – Melbourne 10.12 72
(Melbourne by 9 Points)
The Demons managed to hold on out West and didn’t let a lighting strike disrupt their evening.
Midfielders Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver and James Harmes were solid throughout the win, whilst Alex Neal-Bullen was dangerous up forward and applied a lot of pressure on the Eagles defenders.
Max Gawn was good in the ruck and youngster Luke Jackson held his own against Nic Nat.
The Eagles have missed the in and under work of Elliott Yeo this season, and the wet conditions suit him. He kept them in the match at stages and will be one of the favourites for the three votes.
Vote Chances
Jack Redden – 30 Disposals (20 Effective and 14 Contested), 7 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks (3 Intercept Marks), 6 Clearances, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 22 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal
James Harmes – 25 Disposals (17 Effective), 5 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 515 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
Clayton Oliver – 28 Disposals (21 Contested), 9 Clearances, 15 Ground Ball Gets and 23 Pressure Acts
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Melbourne) Alex Neal-Bullen (1)
19 Disposals (13 Effective), 7 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 8 Tackles (5 Tackles Inside 50), 21 Pressure Acts, 407 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 2 Goals
2 Votes (Melbourne) Christian Petracca (28)
28 Disposals (17 Effective and 10 Contested), 7 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 20 Pressure Acts, 449 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
3 Votes (West Coast) Elliot Yeo (5) ⭐⭐
31 Disposals (20 Contested and 19 Effective), 14 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 24 Pressure Acts and 725 Metres Gained
Note – Yeo is the tough in and under player the Eagles have missed for most of the season. He was very good at extracting the footy and had the most significant impact on the ground. The Eagles didn’t win the match though, but he will still be one of the favourites for the three.
Leaderboard – Round 21
Top 10
| Name | Projected Votes |
|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | 29 |
| Clayton Oliver | 28 |
| Christian Petracca | 28 |
| Jack Steele | 28 |
| Sam Walsh | 25 |
| Tom Mitchell | 25 |
| Ollie Wines | 25 |
| Jack Macrae | 25 |
| Darcy Parish | 24 |
| Zach Merrett | 22 |
| Touk Miller | 22 |
To see the projected votes from previous rounds, click the Brownlow Medal Predictor 2021 on the menu bar. You can also click the TAGS at the bottom of this post or use the links below.
Cheers and always Gamble Responsibly