Brownlow Medal Predictor, Round 4 2022

The Brownlow Medal Predictor is back for AFL Season 2022, but will be released later in the season to allow a more in-depth analysis of each AFL match.

All the projected votes, vote chances, key statistics, star ratings and leaderboards will be released gradually towards the latter stages of the 2022 AFL Season.  

The DailySportsBuddy Brownlow Medal Predictor uses a model that focuses on analysing matches and using key statistics that have been consistent from past winners and top performers in previous Brownlow Medal Counts.

Statistics are not everything, but the award is generally a midfielder’s award, with midfielders making up most of the top ten in previous Brownlow Medal Counts.

It is impossible to predict the entire season’s votes in order, but with a bit of research, most players who are a chance of polling in any given match can be identified.

A Star ⭐ Rating is used to show the confidence level of each three-vote prediction.

⭐ = Tough Game to Pick

⭐⭐ = A Decent Chance

⭐⭐⭐ = Should get the Three Votes

The 2021 Brownlow Medal Predictor had a strike rate of 69.7% for three-vote predictions last season.

There are many games each season where a player is a clear standout, and the three-star ratings for matches came in at 92.7%.

Click the link below to see all the results from the 2021 Brownlow Medal Predictor.

2021 Brownlow Medal Predictor Results

Here is the Brownlow Medal Predictor for Round 4 of the 2022 AFL Season.

Good luck picking a winner for any category this season, and always remember to Gamble Responsibly.


Brownlow Medal Predictor, Round 4 2022

Port Adelaide vs Melbourne

Port Adelaide 4.12 36 – Melbourne 10.8 68

(Melbourne by 32 Points)

Vote Chances

Travis Boak – 35 Disposals (26 Effective and 15 Contested), 8 Marks, 5 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles and 21 Pressure Acts

James Harmes – 23 Disposals (21 Effective), 7 Marks, 5 Score Involvements, 4 Ground Ball Gets, 19 Pressure Acts and 2 Goals

Luke Jackson – 14 Disposals (12 Effective), 5 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks (3 Intercept Marks and 2 Contested), 4 One Percenters, 6 Tackles, 18 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Melbourne) Jack Viney (1)

21 Disposals (16 Contested), 7 Clearances, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles (3 Tackles Inside 50), 28 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal

2 Votes (Melbourne) Steven May (2)

23 Disposals (21 Effective), 11 Intercept Possessions, 9 Marks (7 Intercept Marks and 3 Contested), 11 Rebound 50s, 4 One Percenters, 4 Spoils and 692 Metres Gained

3 Votes (Melbourne) Max Gawn (3) ⭐⭐⭐

25 Disposals (12 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 12 Marks (5 Intercept Marks and 5 Contested), 6 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 13 Hit-outs to advantage, 516 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

Note – The Demons kept the Power goalless at the main break and led the match from start to finish.

Max Gawn played his best game of the season so far and was a clear best on ground. His elite tap work and contested marking went a long way to setting up another win for the Demons.

The minor votes could go several ways, but Steven May took seven intercept marks and made it very tough for the Power forwards to have any impact in the match.


Geelong vs Brisbane

Geelong 11.14 80 – Brisbane 11.4 70

(Geelong by 10 Points)

Vote Chances

Mark Blicavs – 22 Disposals (17 Effective), 7 Marks (2 Intercept Marks and 2 Marks Inside 50), 5 Clearances, 10 Score Involvements, 8 Tackles and 18 Pressure Acts

Daniel McStay – 14 Disposals (11 Effective), 11 Marks (5 Marks Inside 50 and 4 Contested), 7 Score Involvements and 3 Goals

Joe Daniher – 12 Disposals (11 Effective), 7 Marks (5 Contested and 2 Marks Inside 50), 5 Score Involvements and 3 Goals

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Geelong) Isaac Smith (1)

29 Disposals (26 Effective), 10 Marks, 8 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 626 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

2 Votes (Brisbane) Lachie Neale (7)

30 Disposals (21 Contested), 11 Clearances, 6 Score Involvements, 16 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles and 23 Pressure Acts

3 Votes (Geelong) Tom Hawkins (5) ⭐⭐

14 Disposals, 7 Marks (7 Marks Inside 50 and 5 Contested), 11 Score Involvements, 3 Tackles, 17 Pressure Acts and 5 Goals

Note – The Cats won a close contest, and veteran forward Tom Hawkins stood out with a stack of contested marks in dangerous positions. Hawkins booted five goals for the match and helped set up several more scoring chances for the Cats.

Isaac Smith also had a big game for the Cats with a significant amount of run and carry, whilst Lachie Neale did his usual thing in the middle of the ground and is always a chance to poll.


Sydney vs North Melbourne

Sydney 13.8 86 – North Melbourne 12.3 75

(Sydney by 11 Points)

Vote Chances

Callum Mills – 28 Disposals (24 Effective and 10 Contested), 7 Marks, 7 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 19 Pressure Acts, 435 Metres Gained and 2 Goal Assists

Oliver Florent – 23 Disposals (15 Effective), 10 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 589 Metres Gained and 2 Goal Assists

Jack Ziebell – 9 Disposals, 3 Marks (3 Marks Inside 50), 7 Score Involvements, 3 Tackles (3 Tackles Inside 50), 1 Goal Assist and 5 Goals

Projected Votes

1 Vote (North Melbourne) Jy Simpkin (1)

33 Disposals (12 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 5 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 543 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

2 Votes (Sydney) Isaac Heeney (6)

17 Disposals (15 Effective), 5 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 11 Tackles (5 Tackles Inside 50), 27 Pressure Acts, 410 Metres Gained and 2 Goals

3 Votes (Sydney) Justin McInerney (3)

30 Disposals (24 Effective and 12 Contested), 6 Marks, 7 Clearances, 6 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 419 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

Note – The Kangaroos hung in there for most of this contest, but the Swans pulled away in the final term to come up with the win.

A tough match to split the votes, but Justin McInerney finished the game well when the match was up for grabs. He racked up 14 disposals, and booted a goal in the final quarter.

The votes could go several ways in this match, with no notable standouts, and it would not be surprising if Jack Ziebel features in the votes with five goals from just the nine disposals.


Collingwood vs West Coast

Collingwood 10.14 74 – West Coast 14.3 87

(West Coast by 13 Points)

Vote Chances

Jack Crisp – 29 Disposals (22 Effective and 13 Contested), 9 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks, 4 Clearances, 9 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 5 One Percenters, 676 Metres Gained and 2 Goal Assists

Brody Mihocek – 13 Disposals, 8 Marks (6 Contested and 5 Marks Inside 50), 4 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements and 2 Goals

Willie Rioli – 13 Disposals (10 Contested), 3 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 3 Clearances, 5 Score Involvements, 4 Ground Ball Gets, 1 Goal Assist and 3 Goals

Projected Votes

1 Vote (West Coast) Tom Barrass (1)

11 Disposals (11 Effective), 7 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks (3 Intercept Marks and 3 Contested), 5 Rebound 50s, 13 One Percenters and 13 Spoils

2 Votes (West Coast) Jeremy McGovern (2)

22 Disposals (20 Effective), 11 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks (5 Intercept Marks), 5 Rebound 50s, 4 Ground Ball Gets, 6 One Percenters and 4 Spoils

3 Votes (Collingwood) Nick Daicos (3)

32 Disposals (25 Effective), 7 Marks, 4 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 5 Tackles, 21 Pressure Acts, 490 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist

Note – The Eagles hung on for their first win of the season, and their defenders were busy throughout the day and stood up with the Pies entering the forward fifty 19 more times.  

Nick Daicos was probably the most noticeable player on the ground and racked up plenty of the footy, but this will be a tough match to split, with a couple of Eagles defenders having big games.

The votes in this match could go several ways, but Daicos seemed everywhere at times and is a chance despite the loss.


Richmond vs Western Bulldogs

Richmond 15.9 99 – Western Bulldogs 7.19 61

(Richmond by 38 Points)

Vote Chances

Jack Macrae – 34 Disposals (27 Effective and 16 Contested), 5 Marks, 9 Clearances, 8 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 24 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal

Marcus Bontempelli – 33 Disposals (25 Effective and 13 Contested), 5 Marks, 8 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 13 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 5 One Percenters, 541 Metres Gained, 2 Goal Assists and 1 Goal

Bailey Smith – 36 Disposals (25 Effective and 11 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 7 Marks, 5 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 26 Pressure Acts and 644 Metres Gained

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Richmond) Dion Prestia (1)

30 Disposals (21 Effective), 5 Intercept Possessions, 7 Marks, 7 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 19 Pressure Acts, 2 Goal Assists and 1 Goal

2 Votes (Richmond) Jayden Short (5)

35 Disposals (26 Effective), 6 Marks, 7 Inside 50s, 4 Ground Ball Gets, 810 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

3 Votes (Richmond) Shai Bolton (4) ⭐⭐

20 Disposals (14 Effective and 13 Contested), 4 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50 and 2 Intercept Marks), 5 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 17 Pressure Acts and 2 Goals

Note – The Tigers won, and Shai Bolton doesn’t need much of the football to stand out on the footy field. Bolton had a clear impact in this match and helped set up many of the Tigers scoring chances.

The minor votes will be favoured to go to a couple of Tigers players because of the margin, but a number of Bulldogs midfielders won a lot of the football.


Fremantle vs GWS

Fremantle 13.10 88 – GWS 8.6 54

(Fremantle by 34 Points)

Vote Chances

Griffin Logue – 17 Disposals (14 Effective), 8 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks (5 Intercept Marks), 6 Rebound 50s, 4 Ground Ball Gets, 10 One Percenters and 9 Spoils

Nathan O’Driscoll – 20 Disposals, 5 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 5 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 452 Metres Gained and 2 Goals

Tim Taranto – 32 Disposals (22 Effective and 14 Contested), 6 Clearances, 5 Rebound 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 32 Pressure Acts and 483 Metres Gained

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Fremantle) Andrew Brayshaw (8)

26 Disposals (20 Effective), 5 Marks, 4 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 6 Tackles, 22 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal

2 Votes (Fremantle) David Mundy (2)

30 Disposals (10 Contested), 6 Clearances, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles and 18 Pressure Acts

3 Votes (Fremantle) Will Brodie (3)

37 Disposals (21 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 6 Clearances, 6 Score Involvements, 12 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 27 Pressure Acts, 474 Metres Gained and 2 Goal Assists

Note – The Dockers got the win over the Giants and new recruit Will Brodie was the best player on the ground, but lesser-known players have not polled as well as the more prominent names in past counts.

David Mundy and Andrew Brayshaw had a significant impact in the match, and defender Griffin Logue was solid down back all match.


Essendon vs Adelaide

Essendon 15.13 103 – Adelaide 15.9 99

(Essendon by 4 Points)

Vote Chances

Ben Keays – 27 Disposals (11 Contested), 5 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 12 Tackles, 39 Pressure Acts, 523 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

Josh Rachele – 19 Disposals (14 Effective), 9 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 7 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 1 Goal Assist and 3 Goals

Taylor Walker – 18 Disposals (13 Effective and 10 Contested), 6 Marks, 7 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 473 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 4 Goals

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Essendon) Mason Redman (1)

19 Disposals (15 Effective), 10 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks (4 Intercept Marks), 7 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 514 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

2 Votes (Adelaide) Rory Laird (4)

38 Disposals (32 Effective and 15 Contested), 8 Marks, 8 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 4 Rebound 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets and 2 Goal Assists

3 Votes (Essendon) Darcy Parish (5) ⭐⭐

38 Disposals (27 Effective and 17 Contested), 8 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 30 Pressure Acts, 3 One Percenters and 1 Goal Assist

Note – The Bombers got the narrow win, and Darcy Parish was their best player for most of the contest.

Adelaide’s Rory Laird also had a big match, but the maximum votes tend to go to the winning side, making Parish a genuine chance.


Hawthorn vs St Kilda

Hawthorn 10.13 73 – St Kilda 22.10 142

(St Kilda by 69 Points)

Vote Chances

Jade Gresham – 20 Disposals (15 Effective and 10 Contested), 4 Clearances, 8 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 2 Goal Assists and 4 Goals

Max King – 17 Disposals, 11 Marks (7 Marks Inside 50 and 2 Contested), 4 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 351 Metres Gained 2 Goal Assists and 4 Goals

Brad Crouch – 29 Disposals (20 Effective and 10 Contested), 5 Marks, 8 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles (3 Tackles Inside 50), 20 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal Assist

Projected Votes

1 Vote (St Kilda) Brad Hill (1)

23 Disposals (16 Effective), 9 Marks (3 Marks Inside 50), 5 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 445 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 4 Goals

2 Votes (St Kilda) Jack Sinclair (2)

35 Disposals (29 Effective and 10 Contested), 8 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks, 8 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 3 One Percenters, 401 Metres Gained and 2 Goal Assists

3 Votes (St Kilda) Jack Steele (4) ⭐⭐

33 Disposals (25 Effective and 15 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 10 Marks (3 Intercept Marks and 2 Marks Inside 50), 5 Clearances, 8 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal

Note – The Saints led from start to finish and made easy work of the Hawks at the MCG.

Their star midfielder Jack Steele racked up a lot of the football and will go in favourite for highest vote honours.

Four Saints booted four goals in this clash, and the minor votes could go several ways, but Steele will be the favourite for the three.


Gold Coast vs Carlton

Gold Coast 13.14 92 – Carlton 8.14 62

(Gold Coast by 30 Points)

Vote Chances

Touk Miller – 32 Disposals (21 Contested), 8 Clearances, 14 Ground Ball Gets and 18 Pressure Acts

Will Powell – 17 Disposals (15 Effective), 5 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks (3 Intercept Marks), 6 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 4 One Percenters, 4 Spoils, 604 Metres Gained and 2 Goal Assists

Zac Williams – 36 Disposals (26 Effective), 8 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks, 11 Rebound 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 4 One Percenters, 4 Spoils, 5 Tackles and 800 Metres Gained

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Gold Coast) Jarrod Witts (1)

16 Disposals (11 Effective and 11 Contested), 6 Clearances, 7 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 17 Hit-outs to advantage and 1 Goal Assist

2 Votes (Gold Coast) Lachie Weller (2)

31 Disposals (25 Effective), 6 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks, 7 Inside 50s, 7 Rebound 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 811 Metres Gained 2 Goal Assists and 1 Goal

3 Votes (Gold Coast) Noah Anderson (3) ⭐⭐

35 Disposals (15 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 10 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 12 Ground Ball Gets, 4 One Percenters, 682 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

Note – The Suns upset the Blues and led from start to finish. Midfielder Noah Anderson had a significant impact in the middle of the ground and is every chance to get the maximum votes.

The votes could go several ways in this match, but Anderson was the noticeable player on the ground throughout the day.


To see all the votes for previous rounds, click the link Brownlow Medal Predictor 2022 on the menu bar. You can also use the TAGS at the bottom of this post or click the links below.

Best of luck picking a winner, and always remember to Gamble Responsibly.

Round 1

Round 2

Round 3