The second AFL Premilinary Final kicks off on a Saturday evening where the Brisbane Lions will take on the Geelong Cats at the Gabba.
The Lions are coming off a gutsy win in the first week of the finals in which they were too good for a spirited Tigers team. The Cats looked like they were at training at times against the Magpies, and proved they have been one of the best sides all season.
Friday Night football saw some close tough football at the Adelaide Oval. The Power and Tigers went head to head, but it was the Tigers who managed to get home by 6 Points and book a spot in the Grand Final next week.
Be sure to check back before each AFL Finals match, for AFL Footy Tips, AFL Previews, AFL Predictions and AFL Player Props for each round of the 2020 AFL Season.
Also, check out our in-depth Round by Round Brownlow Medal Predictions for the 2020 AFL Season. A summary of each round, with projected votes and some of the best chances based on some of the key statistical areas from previous winners and top-five finishes. Stats don’t mean everything, but some key stats have been consistent from past winners over the journey.
Tipping Results this Season
Finals Tips – 5/7
Finals Player Props – 7/16
Season Tips – 114/160 = 71.25%
Season Player Props – 74/136 = 54.4%
Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats
Last Meeting
Round 6 2020, Geelong 11.7 73 – Brisbane 6.10 46
The Cats got off to a poor start, but it was veterans Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood that stood up and helped the Cats dominate the second half. Selwood racked up 20 Disposals and 8 Tackles, and Dangerfield was prolific with 26 Disposals, 7 Inside 50s and 9 Score Involvements.
(Geelong by 27 Points)
Last 5 Meetings
Brisbane – 1 Win
Geelong – 4 Wins
Team Changes
Just the one change in this match with the Lions dropping impressive youngster Keidean Coleman and experienced campaigner Cam Ellis-Yolemen will come into the team.
Prediction
In their meeting in Round 6 this season, the Cats dominated possession of the football with 316 disposals to 233, and managed to create scoring chances. They made the most of it and went 61% for efficiency inside 50, and were worthy winners.
If the Lions want to win this match, they need to make sure they limit the Cats ability to control the football and need to make sure they convert on their shots on goal, as they went 6.10 in the last matchup.
Both sides have been excellent all season and the Lions have had the luxury of being at home for the majority of their year.
The most pressure in a prelim is always on the side that has had the week off, and the Lions will have their hands full against a classy Cats team.
Patrick Dangerfield is playing some fantastic football, and the Cats are loaded up with talent in the midfield, but the Lions also have some prolific contributors.
Once again a challenging game to pick, but this is the Cats real chance to win back some respect as they have underperformed in the finals for an extended period.
The Cats to win it in a close contest.
Our Pick – Geelong (Win)
Player Props
Player Prop – Mitch Duncan +84.5 Fantasy Points
The Magpies put Levi Greenwood on Duncan last week and it had zero impact on the result of the match. Duncan has elite running power and it may have benefited the Magpies if they went for an opposing Geelong Midfielder. Duncan has a season average of 88 Fantasy Points and has averaged 110.5 in the finals so far. Should cover this number even if he gets tagged, as that was not effective last week.
Player Prop – Cam Guthrie + 82.5 Fantasy Points
Guthrie has taken a step forward this season and is also a pretty good chance to finish in the Top 20 in this years Brownlow Medal Count. Is having his best season and will not be the main midfielder the Lions try and tag, if they choose that method in this contest. Has a season average of 86 Fantasy Points and has average 93.4 over his last 5 matches. Is a decent chance to cover this number.
Player Prop – Daniel Rich – (Under) 19.5 Disposals
Defenders have struggled to rack up the football against the Cats this season, and Rich is very damaging with his elite kicking ability. He may be targeted to reduce his impact, but does take a lot of the kick-ins so it is a bold play. Only averages the 17 Disposals per match for the season, but has averaged 21.8 over his last four matches. Given he is in form, the Cats may decide to try and reduce his impact on this match.
Player Prop – Gary Ablett 1+ Goals
Had a crack at this one last week and Gary had an impact against Collingwood and looked dangerous each time he went near the football. He failed to convert on his goal chance, but he is a champion and can step up in big matches. Should get a few chances to snag a goal in this match.
Hopefully this match is as close as the clash last night, and always remember to gamble responsibly.
If you are looking for a Round by Round Analysis for the Brownlow Medal, check out our Brownlow Medal Predictor. An in-depth Round by Round look at the best vote chances and the Projected Leaderboard and Team Votes.