NBA Player Special Wager
If you are a fan of the NBA and like to have a small wager here and there the NBA Player Special Wager could be a good one to look at.
This is an ideal wager for Traders especially if they play NBA Daily Fantasy and have some idea of which players may perform well for any specific matchup.
A Player Special Wager also know as the NBA Player Prop is trying to determine how many statistics a specific player will get for a few different categories.
The bookies will generally offer a total for these bets and traders will have the option of either going over or under the decided number.
Things to Consider
NBA Defence vs Position
One of the best things to use to help see if a player special bet has any value is to look at the Defence vs Position Stats for a matchup.
Some sides have not defended the point guard spot as well as others, so if a side is playing a team with a weak rating in defence vs position then a possible total points or assists over can be made.
The same can be true for a side that defends the point guard or any other position well. The under can be taken here.
An example of this was when arguably the NBA’s best Defender Kawhi Leonard was playing for the San Antiono Spurs. The Spurs did a great job of protecting the small forward spot, so the under game points total was always a good option depending on the team, the situation and the player he was defending.
NBA Game Totals, Lines and PACE
Once a player has been identified as having a chance of going over or under the player special a number of other factors should be considered.
Will the game be high scoring and fast paced or will it be low scoring or low paced?
Will the game be close or will it be one-sided?
Close games are generally good for a player who is up against a side that struggles to defend their position as they will play more minutes.
A one-sided affair can also be good as it could help both the over or the under. If a side gets jumped on early and the under has been taken it normally helps. If a side dominates the early stages it means that the player may be filling up the stat sheet. There are many ways to consider if a player prop may be of value.
NBA Minutes Played
With the above information, a player needs to make an educated guess on how many minutes his chosen player may play.
Remember if the game may not be close their minutes may be reduced. This is an important factor when considering which NBA Player Props to choose from.
NBA Performance vs Teams
Some players will have a tendency to perform a lot better against specific teams and matchups. There are many statistical based websites that help determine whether or not a player plays well against a specific team.
Use the link to the ESPN Player Stats in which allows you to toggle between different stat categories. A player’s previous performances against specific teams are listed on here.
NBA Revenge Factor
Sometimes a specific matchup can be identified as a revenge game. The NBA can be brutal sometimes and players are traded against their will on many occasions.
When the player traded comes up against their old side this generally means that they are pumped up and out to prove a point. A couple of recent examples was Demar DeRozan against the Raptors earlier this season in which he scored a triple-double in a big win.
Blake Griffen traveled back to LA to face the Clippers and dropped 44 points for the Pistons earlier in the season against his old side.
Although scarce, the Revenge Factor is definitely worth considering and can be a factor for some of the lesser-known players if they are given minutes.
The NBA Player Special Wager is a great one, particularly if you already play NBA DFS and have already done some player related research.
Bookies will generally make it seem difficult, but with the above information, an edge over the bookies can certainly be created.
Take a look at our post on the NBA Over Under Bet to learn a little more about some of the other NBA Bets available.