Saints vs Bulldogs, AFL Finals Tips

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St Kilda Saints vs Western Bulldogs AFL Finals Week One
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The 2020 AFL Finals continue on AFL Saturday, and we have an intriguing match in what many believe will go down to the wire.

The St Kilda Saints and the Western Bulldogs meet at the Gabba to kick off the Saturday AFL Finals proceedings.

The Saints will be looking for their first finals victory since 2010, and the Bulldogs will be looking to replicate their 2016 charge in the AFL Finals in which they won the flag.

Friday Night football saw one of the best matches of the 2020 AFL Season, where the Brisbane Lions got over the Richmond Tigers in what was an amazing atmosphere. Charlie Cameron put on a show, and the Lion’s midfielders and defenders stepped up in their best win for over a decade.

Check out some of the highlights below, courtesy of the AFL on Youtube.

Be sure to check back before each AFL Finals match for AFL Tips, AFL Previews and AFL Player Props for each match of the 2020 AFL Finals.

Also, check out our in-depth Round by Round Brownlow Medal Predictions for the 2020 AFL Season. A summary of each round, with projected votes and some of the best chances based on some of the key statistical areas from previous winners and top-five finishes. Stats don’t mean everything, but some key stats have been consistent from past winners over the journey.


Tipping Results So Far

Finals Tips – 1/2

Finals Player Props – 2/3

Season Tips – 110/155 = 70.97%

Season Player Props – 69/123 = 56.1%


St Kilda Saints vs Western Bulldogs

Last Meeting

Round 2 2020 St Kilda 14.4 88 – Western Bulldogs 7.7 49

(St Kilda by 39 Points)

Last 5 Meetings

St Kilda – 3 Wins

Western Bulldogs – 2 Wins

Last Round

The Saints secured their first finals spot in nine seasons after a 52 Point win over the struggling Giants in Round 18.

The Bulldogs had to win to play finals and were to good for the Fremantle Dockers to win the match by 30 Points.

Team Changes

Just the one change for the Saints for this clash, with Josh Battle out injured, and Zak Jones comes in and will be important in the middle of the ground.

The Bulldogs will go into this match with an unchanged line-up. 

Current Head to Head Odds

St Kilda – $2.25

Western Bulldogs – $1.65

Prediction

This is a challenging game to predict, and many believe the Bulldogs can get on a run and do some damage in the finals. They do, however, have a heavy reliance on their star players and lack depth in certain areas of the ground, especially up forward. Some of their stars are playing good football, and that will need to continue for them to win this match.

The Saints do have an advantage in the ruck in this match and have looked decent at times this season, but have also looked like a below-average team at stages. Players like Jack Steele, Seb Ross and Brad Hill will need to step up, and Jack Billings has a good record against the Bulldogs, but is out of form at the minute.

The Bulldogs were smashed in their finals match last season to the Giants, and lost the match by 58 Points. It is a tough game to pick, but this is a bold play, and if the Saints can control the stars of the Bulldogs to some degree and make the Bulldogs role players contribute, they should win the match. The Saints have won the last two matches against the Dogs, and will be confident they can win their first final in 10 seasons.

Our Pick – St Kilda (Win)

Player Props

Player Prop – Nick Coffield + 60.5 Fantasy Points

Coffield is averaging 66 Fantasy Points in his last four matches and the Bulldogs are ranked third for points conceded to opposition defenders this season. Should cover this number and is a good user of the football.

Player Prop – Jack Billings + 66.5 Fantasy Points

This is a bold play given Billings is averaging just 61.5 Fantasy Points over his last four matches. However, Billings plays forward at stages and the Bulldogs give up the fourth amount of fantasy points to opposition forwards this season. Throw in the fact that he averaged 116 Fantasy Points in his last two games against the Dogs prior to this year, and racked up 112 in their Round 2 win over the Dogs. This is a low number and if the Saints are to win the match, Billings will need to have an impact and use the football well.  

Player Prop – Bailey Smith + 69.5 Fantasy Points

Smith averages 70 Fantasy Points for the season and given the fact the Dogs stars will get a lot of attention in this clash, he may need to step up and do some of the hard work in the middle. 

Player Prop – Hunter Clark + 66.5 Fantasy Points

Clark plays down back, but has been playing in the middle of the ground at stages in recent games. The Bulldogs can be prone to conceding points to opposition defenders and Clark has averaged 69 per game over his last three matches. If he spends half the game in the middle of the ground, he should cover. 

Player Prop – Dan Butler – 1+ Goals

Butler has finals experience and if the Saints are going to win the match, he will need to have an impact. His fantasy line is around 56.5, which may be pushing it, but it will be surprising if he doesn’t snag a goal in this match. 

Be sure to also check out our 2020 Bronwlow Medal Predictor. An in-depth round by round look at the best chances to poll votes in match of the 2020 AFL Season. 

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