A Bomber Climbs, Predictions Round 16, 2021

Brownlow Medal Predictor Round 16 2021
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A Bomber Climbs, Predictions Round 16, 2021

Sixteen rounds are done and dusted, and there are quite a few contenders for the 2021 Brownlow Medal.

Western Bulldogs star Marcus Bontempelli still firms as the favourite, but a rising Bomber is hot on his tail and is having an incredible season.

Darcy Parish has won three significant match day medals this season and has been featuring heavily in all the key statistics that have been consistent from past vote-getters.

Unlike last season there is no clear runaway favourite at this stage, but there has been some standouts, and some of those guys play for clubs in which there will be less competition from other teammates. St Kilda’s Jack Steele, Hawthorn’s Tom Mitchell and Brisbane’s Jarryd Lyons, to name a few.

Here is the Brownlow Medal Predictor for Round 16 of the 2021 AFL Season.

Be sure to check back each week of the 2021 AFL Season for an in-depth look at some of the better players for each round and who should get the votes.

Round by Round analysis of the Brownlow Medal Count. Who gets the Brownlow Votes, and who has the best chance to become the Brownlow Medal Winner on Brownlow Medal Night.

This Brownlow Medal Tracker features the players that have the best chance of getting the votes and three other players that are considered a vote chance.

A Star ⭐ rating is used to show the confidence level of each three-vote prediction.

⭐ = Tough Game to Pick

⭐⭐ = A Decent Chance

⭐⭐⭐ = Should get the Three Votes


Brownlow Medal Predictor Round 21

Gold Coast vs Richmond

Gold Coast 10.17 77 – Richmond 10.7 67

(Gold Coast by 10 Points)

The Suns were the underdogs in this clash, and many expected the Tigers to regroup and regain their form. However, the Suns put in a solid effort with a lot of pressure off the football, and it was enough to get them one of their biggest wins in recent times.

Touk Miller was superb in the middle of the ground and got the ball out of congestion, whilst using the footy well on many occasions.

Ben King had a good night up forward, and Ben Ainsworth was dangerous near the sticks for most of the contest. Charlie Ballard was solid all evening down back and played one of the best games of his career.

The Tigers were again disappointing, but Tom Lynch was their best player and presented well up forward, kicking 5 Goals.

Vote Chances

Ben King – 13 Disposals (11 Effective), 7 Marks (4 Marks Inside 50 and 2 Contested), 10 Score Involvements, 1 Goal Assist and 4 Goals

Charlie Ballard – 17 Disposals (15 Effective), 12 Intercept Possessions, 9 Marks (7 Intercept Marks and 3 Contested), 5 Score Involvements, 4 One Percenters and 4 Spoils

Jack Lukosius – 24 Disposals (17 Effective), 9 Intercept Possessions, 10 Marks (3 Intercept Marks and 2 Contested), 4 Inside 50s, 7 Rebound 50s and 782 Metres Gained

Projected Votes

1 Vote  (Gold Coast) Ben Ainsworth (1)

20 Disposals, 8 Marks (3 Marks Inside 50), 7 Inside 50s, 11 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 468 Metres Gained, 3 Goal Assists and 1 Goal

2 Votes (Richmond) Tom Lynch (4)

13 Disposals (11 Contested and 10 Effective), 6 Marks (5 Marks Inside 50 and 3 Contested), 4 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements and 5 Goals

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3 Votes (Gold Coast) Touk Miller (14) ⭐⭐⭐

36 Disposals (28 Effective and 15 Contested), 7 Marks, 9 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles, 24 Pressure Acts and 424 Metres Gained

Note – The Suns got the rare prime time Thursday Night Fixture, and Touk Miller was a clear standout in what has been his best year. Excellent use of the football, whilst getting the footy out of congestion, is a recipe for votes come Brownlow Night.


Geelong vs Essendon

Geelong 15.8 98 – Essendon 8.9 57

(Geelong by 41 Points)

The Bombers headed to Geelong for the first time in 28 Years and got the fast start against the Cats to lead at quarter time. The Cats got their game plan together in the second quarter and ran out winners by a comfortable margin.

Patrick Dangerfield was brilliant in this match and played a big part in helping the Cats gain a sizeable lead.

Tom Hawkins booted six goals, and defenders Tom Atkins and Tom Stewart were excellent down back.

Despite the 41 Point loss, the Bombers had a player who won the Tom Willis Award, with Darcy Parish continuing his excellent form. He racked up some ridiculous statistics in this match and was a well-deserving winner, but Dangerfield may pinch the three votes.

Other Bombers that were decent were Jake Stringer and Zach Merrett, but both will have a tough time getting into the votes in this match.

Vote Chances

Issac Smith – 25 Disposals (18 Effective), 6 Marks, 5 Inside 50s, 5 Rebound 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 466 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

Zach Merrett – 36 Disposals (23 Effective), 5 Marks, 9 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles, 30 Pressure Acts, 521 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

Jake Stringer – 25 Disposals (12 Contested), 4 Marks, 8 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 27 Pressure Acts, 523 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 3 Goals

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Geelong) Tom Hawkins (4)

15 Disposals (10 Effective), 6 Marks (4 Marks Inside 50), 9 Score Involvements, 1 Goal Assist and 6 Goals

2 Votes (Geelong) Patrick Dangerfield (2)

37 Disposals (28 Effective and 18 Contested), 11 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 11 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 685 Metres Gained, 2 Goal Assists and 1 Goal

3 Votes (Essendon) Darcy Parish (22) ⭐⭐

43 Disposals (32 Effective and 28 Contested), 10 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 13 Clearances, 15 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 22 Ground Ball Gets, 22 Pressure Acts, 908 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal

Note – Parish won the medal, but it would not at all be surprising if Dangerfield pinches the three votes come Brownlow Night. The Cats won comfortably in the end, but Parish seemed everywhere in this clash and loaded the stats sheet in all the key areas.


Melbourne vs GWS

Melbourne 7.13 55 – GWS 9.10 64

(GWS by 9 Points)

The Demons hosted the Giants at the MCG, and they may be beginning to show some vulnerabilities with their second loss in three matches.

The Giants came to play in this one and were led by their two star midfielders in Josh Kelly and Tim Taranto, who both won a lot of the footy and impacted the result.

Callan Ward, Jacob Hopper and Lachie Whitfield were all busy throughout the contest, and Tom Green’s effectiveness in the final quarter helped them win the match.

For the Demons, Christian Petracca was again influential in the middle of the ground, Christian Salem was solid down back, and Tom McDonald presented well up forward for most of the contest.

Vote Chances

Christian Salem – 31 Disposals (26 Effective), 5 Intercept Possessions, 9 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 7 Rebound 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 509 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

Callan Ward – 24 Disposals (17 Effective and 11 Contested), 7 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 4 Clearances, 4 Rebound 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 431 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

Tom Green – 25 Disposals (19 Effective and 11 Contested), 6 Marks, 4 Inside 50s and 7 Ground Ball Gets

Projected Votes

1 Vote  (GWS) Tim Taranto (7)

28 Disposals (11 Contested), 6 Marks, 10 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 21 Pressure Acts, 551 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

2 Votes (Melbourne) Christian Petracca (19)

30 Disposals (18 Contested), 10 Marks (3 Contested), 9 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 18 Pressure Acts and 658 Metres Gained

3 Votes (GWS) Josh Kelly (14) ⭐⭐

29 Disposals (19 Effective and 10 Contested), 4 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles, 28 Pressure Acts, 705 Metres Gained, and 1 Goal

Note – A gutsy win from the Giants, and Kelly was at his best. He made smart decisions in this game with a willingness to attack and keep the ball moving forward. He will be the favourite for the maximum votes in the win.

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Adelaide vs Brisbane

Adelaide 8.11 59 – Brisbane 17.9 111

(Brisbane by 52 Points)

The Crows hung around in the first half, but the class of the Lions stood out as the game went on.

The Lions were too good in this match and blew the margin out in the last term.

Jarryd Lyons was again one of their best in the middle of the ground, and was well supported by Zac Bailey, who continues to hit the scoreboard regularly.

Dayne Zorko was excellent off the football in this match, and the underrated Marcus Adams was solid in defence all game. Mitch Robinson was very busy early, and Lincoln McCarthy was lively up forward, booting 4 Goals.

For the Crows, Rory Laird was again one of their best and may feature in the votes despite the loss.

Vote Chances

Rory Laird – 37 Disposals (24 Effective and 16 Contested), 5 Marks, 9 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 5 Rebound 50s, 15 Ground Ball Gets, 459 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist

Marcus Adams – 18 Disposals (15 Effective and 13 Contested), 14 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks (6 Intercept Marks and 4 Contested), 5 Rebound 50s, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 6 One Percenters and 5 Spoils

Mitch Robinson – 27 Disposals (13 Contested), 7 Intercept Possessions, 7 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles and 506 Metres Gained

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Brisbane) Lincoln McCarthy (1)

16 Disposals (14 Effective), 6 Marks (2 Contested), 8 Score Involvements, 1 Goal Assist and 4 Goals

2 Votes (Brisbane) Jarryd Lyons (18)

31 Disposals (11 Contested), 4 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 4 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 10 Tackles (3 Tackles Inside 50), 35 Pressure Acts, 513 Metres Gained and 2 Goal Assists

3 Votes (Brisbane) Zac Bailey (4) ⭐⭐

26 Disposals (15 Contested), 9 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 12 Ground Ball Gets, 23 Pressure Acts, 491 Metres Gained 1 Goal Assist and 3 Goals

Note – Bailey has been hitting the scoreboard regularly, and this match was no exception. Three goals, a lot of the footy and a regular at extracting the football from congestion. He will be a decent shot at three votes in the win.

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Fremantle vs Carlton

Fremantle 8.16 64 – Carlton 12.8 80

(Carlton by 16 Points)

The Dockers tackled the Blues at the MCG in what was considered their home game, but they struggled away from Optus Stadium, and the Blues were too good.

This is a match the Dockers should win if they are considered a finals team, but the Blues defenders made it difficult for them to score, and ran away with the win.

Sam Walsh was again his usual self in the middle of the ground with a lot of the football and was well supported by a surprising contributor in Paddy Dow.

The Blues defenders were on in this clash, with Jacob Weitering and Liam Jones solid for most of the match.

Sean Darcy was excellent for the Dockers in the ruck all match, whilst Andrew Brayshaw had an impact in the middle, and Luke Ryan held his own in defence.

Vote Chances

Andrew Brayshaw – 28 Disposals (21 Effective), 6 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks, 5 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles and 2 Goals

Adam Cerra – 24 Disposals (17 Effective and 11 Contested), 5 Marks, 7 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 4 Rebound 50s, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 22 Pressure Acts and 496 Metres Gained

Matthew Kennedy – 22 Disposals (16 Effective and 10 Contested), 4 Marks, 4 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 25 Pressure Acts, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Carlton) Jack Silvagni (1)

19 Disposals (15 Effective), 9 Marks (4 Marks Inside 50), 6 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 1 Goal Assist and 2 Goals

2 Votes (Fremantle) Sean Darcy (7)

20 Disposals (13 Contested), 8 Marks (3 Contested and 2 Marks Inside 50), 6 Clearances, 9 Score Involvements, 22 Hit-outs to advantage, 5 One Percenters, 5 Spoils and 1 Goal

3 Votes (Carlton) Sam Walsh (16) ⭐

25 Disposals (10 Contested), 8 Marks, 5 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 8 Tackles, 20 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal

Note – Tough to split the votes in this one, with a few Dockers being contenders, despite the loss. Sean Darcy was brilliant in this game, but Sam Walsh was consistent throughout the contest and had a big last quarter with a crucial late goal.

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Hawthorn vs Port Adelaide

Hawthorn 7.11 53 – Port Adelaide 13.9 87

(Port Adelaide by 34 Points)

The fairytale 400th game win for veteran Shaun Burgoyne wasn’t to be in this clash as the Power were too talented and won the match comfortably.

Ollie Wines is now beginning to challenge as a contender for the Brownlow Medal this season, and he was brilliant in this match.

Darcy Byrne-Jones was solid in defence, and midfielders Travis Boak and Karl Amon influenced the result.

Tom Mitchell was again one of the best for the Hawks, and James Worpel held his own in the middle.

Vote Chances

Tom Mitchell – 29 Disposals (23 Effective and 13 Contested), 4 Marks, 8 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles and 24 Pressure Acts

Karl Amon – 26 Disposals (21 Effective), 9 Marks, 4 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 28 Pressure Acts, 619 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist

Charlie Dixon – 14 Disposals (10 Effective), 9 Score Involvements, 4 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 4 One Percenters, 4 Spoils, 1 Goal Assist and 4 Goals

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Port Adelaide) Darcy Byrne-Jones (2)

29 Disposals (25 Effective), 8 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks, 6 Ground Ball Gets and 3 One Percenters

2 Votes (Port Adelaide) Travis Boak (15)

27 Disposals (18 Effective and 14 Contested), 9 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles and 1 Goal Assist

3 Votes (Port Adelaide) Ollie Wines (19) ⭐⭐⭐

43 Disposals (23 Contested), 14 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles, 18 Pressure Acts and 616 Metres Gained,

Note – Wines didn’t have the best disposal efficiency in this clash, but he did a lot of the hard work and consistently extracted the football. A clear standout in the win and should get the maximum votes.


Sydney vs West Coast

Sydney 18.10 118 – West Coast 3.8 26

(Sydney by 92 Points)

The Swans smashed the Eagles in Geelong, and the effort levels of certain Eagles players will be questioned throughout the week.

Callum Mills stayed true to his form in the middle, and both George Hewett and Luke Parker helped win the midfield battle comfortably.

Tom Hickey showed up his former teammate in the ruck, and the run and carry of Oliver Florent was on show. Buddy was also dangerous up forward booting three goals, and Jordan Dawson had an impact from defence.

The Eagles had a shocker, but Dom Sheed led the game in Disposals with 37.

Vote Chances

Jordan Dawson – 25 Disposals (20 Effective and 11 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 6 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 4 One Percenters and 2 Goals

George Hewett – 26 Disposals (19 Effective and 12 Contested), 4 Marks, 5 Clearances, 5 Score Involvements and 10 Ground Ball Gets

Tom Hickey – 22 Disposals (15 Effective and 13 Contested), 4 Marks, 6 Clearances, 5 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 10 Hit-outs to advantage, 10 One Percenters and 7 Spoils,

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Sydney) Luke Parker (10)

30 Disposals (21 Effective and 17 Contested), 4 Marks, 5 Clearances, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles and 23 Pressure Acts

2 Votes (Sydney) Oliver Florent (5)

28 Disposals (21 Effective), 5 Marks, 5 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 500 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist

3 Votes (Sydney) Callum Mills (12) ⭐⭐

35 Disposals (26 Effective), 7 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles and 659 Metres Gained

Note – Mills had a good day and always looks confident with the footy. He made smart decisions and was consistent throughout this contest. He will be the favourite for the maximum votes in the sizeable win.

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Collingwood vs St Kilda

Collingwood 8.13 61 – St Kilda 10.10 70

(St Kilda by 9 Points)

The Pies charged home in the last quarter and gave the Saints a scare, but most of the work was done early, and it was enough to get the Saints the 4 Points.

Jack Steele and Luke Dunstan were again a couple of the Saints best, and the run and carry of Brad Hill stood out throughout the contest.

For the Magpies, Taylor Adams, Scott Pendlebury and Jordan De Goey all had solid games.

Vote Chances

Jordan De Goey – 32 Disposals (25 Effective), 9 Marks (3 Marks Inside 50), 6 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 486 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

Scott Pendlebury – 28 Disposals (24 Effective and 12 Contested), 4 Marks, 8 Clearances, 4 Rebound 50s, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, and 1 Goal Assist

Luke Dunstan – 27 Disposals (19 Effective and 13 Contested), 5 Marks, 10 Clearances,  4 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 9 Tackles, 38 Pressure Acts, and 1 Goal Assist

Projected Votes

1 Vote (St Kilda) Brad Hill (3)

30 Disposals (26 Effective), 4 Marks, 5 Inside 50s, 5 Rebound 50s, 7 Ground Ball Gets and 710 Metres Gained

2 Votes (Collingwood) Taylor Adams (7)

34 Disposals (22 Effective and 17 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 4 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 14 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 26 Pressure Acts and 2 Goal Assists

3 Votes (St Kilda) Jack Steele (19) ⭐⭐⭐

36 Disposals (24 Effective and 15 Contested), 5 Marks, 8 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 14 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 25 Pressure Acts and 3 Goal Assists

Note – Steele was a standout in the win and is beginning to make his move. He won a lot of the football and applied a heap of pressure on the opposition mids. He was noticeable at important stages and should get the three.


Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne

Western Bulldogs 16.12 108 – North Melbourne 11.13 79

(Western Bulldogs by 29 Points)

In the last match of the round, the Bulldogs did enough to control the game and get the win.

Their midfield was again in control, with Jack Macrae, Tom Liberatore and Marcus Bontempelli all having an influence, whilst a young forward, Cody Weightman, booted four goals.

Defenders Bailey Dale and Bailey Williams were also solid down back.

For the Kangaroos, Ben Cunnington held his own in the middle, whilst Jack Ziebell and Aaron Hall won a lot of the footy.

Vote Chances

Marcus Bontempelli – 27 Disposals (18 Effective), 6 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks, 4 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 12 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets 4 Tackles, 18 Pressure Acts and 400 Metres Gained

Bailey Dale – 23 Disposals (20 Effective), 5 Rebound 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 602 Metres Gained and 2 Goals

Cody Weightman – 13 Disposals (10 Effective), 7 Marks (5 Marks Inside 50 and 2 Contested), 10 Score Involvements, 2 Goal Assists and 4 Goals

Projected Votes

1 Vote (W.Bulldogs) Jack Macrae (17)

31 Disposals (25 Effective and 14 Contested), 7 Clearances, 8 Score Involvements, 11 Ground Ball Gets and 4 Goal Assists

2 Votes (North Melbourne) Ben Cunnington (10)

26 Disposals (17 Effective and 13 Contested), 8 Marks, 9 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles, 19 Pressure Acts, 514 Metres Gained and 2 Goals

3 Votes (W.Bulldogs) Tom Liberatore (10)

25 Disposals (17 Effective and 10 Contested), 6 Marks, 8 Clearances, 8 Score Involvements, 5 Tackles, 27 Pressure Acts and 2 Goals

Note – A tough match the split the votes with both sides having a few contributors, but Libba was consistent throughout the contest and booted a couple of goals. Definitely no certainty, and it wouldn’t be surprising if a young Dogs forward features in the votes.


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Leaderboard – Round 16

Top 10

Brownlow Medal Predictor Leaderboard 2021
NameProjected Votes
Marcus Bontempelli23
Darcy Parish22
Clayton Oliver22
Christian Petracca19
Ollie Wines19
Jack Steele19
Jarryd Lyons18
Tom Mitchell18
Jack Macrae17
Sam Walsh16
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To see the projected votes from previous rounds, click the Brownlow Medal Predictor 2021 on the menu bar. You can also click the TAGS at the bottom of this post or use the links below.

Cheers and always Gamble Responsibly.

Round 1

Round 2

Round 3

Round 4

Round 5

Round 6

Round 7

Round 8

Round 9

Round 10

Round 11

Round 12

Round 13

Round 14

Round 15

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About dailysportsbuddy 287 Articles
A sports enthusiast with a specific focus on the AFL Brownlow Medal Count. A model that focuses on analysing matches, analysing previous counts and using key statistics to help determine which players have the best chance of polling in the count.

2 Comments

  1. Really enjoy these posts each week, great insight and information. Best Brownlow Prediction suggestions by far. Keep up the great work, I’m sure it takes a bit of time and effort to analyse each game.

    • Thanks Ben

      Yes, takes a bit of time, but easy to do being a massive footy fan.

      Who knows who will get the votes, but with all the match statistics available on each player, the top performers can be identified.

      Feel free to share the content if you think anybody else may find it useful as a Brownlow Medal Guide for the 2021 Count.

      Cheers

      Chris

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