New Leader, Brownlow Predictor, Round 15 2021
Round 15 is all finished up, and we had last years Premiers drop a match that they should have won.
However, the Tigers still remain in the eight and coming up against them if they play finals could still be a daunting task.
Our Lock of the Week is also our new outright leader and was very impressive in a massive Bulldogs win out west.
Here is the Brownlow Medal Predictor for Round 15 of the 2021 AFL Season.
Be sure to check back each week of the 2021 AFL Season for an in-depth look at some of the better players for each round and who should get the votes.
Round by Round analysis of the Brownlow Medal Count. Who gets the Brownlow Votes, and who has the best chance to become the Brownlow Medal Winner on Brownlow Medal Night.
This Brownlow Medal Tracker features the players that have the best chance of getting the votes and three other players that are considered a vote chance.
A Star ⭐ rating is used to show the confidence level of each three-vote prediction.
⭐ = Tough Game to Pick
⭐⭐ = A Decent Chance
⭐⭐⭐ = Should get the Three Votes
Brisbane vs Geelong
Brisbane 13.16 94 – Geelong 7.8 50
(Brisbane by 44 Points)
The Lions hosted the Cats on a Thursday Night and got off to a fast start with a lot of scoreboard pressure. The Cats were never really in the match, with the Lions defenders making it tough for the Cats big forwards.
Dayne Zorko had a big first half and was probably the best player on the ground when Brisbane set up their sizeable lead.
Ruckman Oscar McInerney won the ruck battle, and most of the Lions defenders made a significant contribution.
Joe Daniher booted four goals, and Charlie Cameron was lively up forward for most of the match.
Midfielder Jarryd Lyons was again good at winning the football, and Lachie Neale got better as the game went on.
The Cats had a poor night, but Cam Guthrie did rack up a lot of cheap disposals.
Vote Chances
Jarryd Lyons – 24 Disposals (16 Effective and 15 Contested), 5 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 5 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 14 Ground Ball Gets and 1 Goal
Joe Daniher – 14 Disposals, 6 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50 and 2 Contested), 4 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 420 Metres Gained and 4 Goals
Daniel Rich – 25 Disposals (19 Effective), 7 Marks, 10 Rebound 50s, 5 Score Involvements and 641 Metres Gained
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Brisbane) Charlie Cameron (2)
14 Disposals, 6 Marks (4 Marks Inside 50), 10 Score Involvements, 1 Goal Assist and 3 Goals
2 Votes (Brisbane) Oscar McInerney (3)
18 Disposals (13 Effective and 11 Contested), 6 Marks (3 Intercept Marks and 2 Contested), 9 Clearances, 7 Hit-outs to advantage, 4 Tackles and 3 Spoils
3 Votes (Brisbane) Dayne Zorko (11) ⭐
24 Disposals (19 Effective), 6 Intercept Possessions, 10 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 4 Inside 50s, 12 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 12 Tackles, 30 Pressure Acts, 445 Metres Gained and 2 Goal Assists
Note – The Lions got a fast start in this clash, and had a sizeable lead at half-time. Zorko was probably the best player on the ground, but it is hard to be confident with picking him as he polled zero votes last season and was projected to poll in quite a few matches. He will be the favourite for the three votes, but it wouldn’t be surprising if the votes go elsewhere.
Richmond vs St Kilda
Richmond 2.10 22 – St Kilda 9.8 62
(St Kilda by 40 Points)
The Saints surprised everybody with their first win on a Friday Night at the MCG since 2010.
They defeated the reigning Premiers, but Richmond didn’t look themselves.
Luke Dunstan and Jack Steele made significant contributions in the middle of the ground and won the clearance battle. Brad Crouch got better as the game went on, and Jack Sinclair was impressive at times.
The Saints defence stood up and held the Tigers to one of their lowest scores in recent times, led by Dougal Howard down back.
The Tigers had an off night, but defender Nick Vlastuin was probably their best player.
Vote Chances
Nick Vlastuin – 24 Disposals (18 Effective), 8 Intercept Possessions, 7 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 5 Rebound 50s, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 8 One Percenters, 4 Spoils and 458 Metres Gained
Brad Crouch – 25 Disposals (17 Effective and 10 Contested), 5 Marks, 5 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 6 Ground Ball Gets and 7 Tackles (4 Tackles Inside 50)
Jack Sinclair – 23 Disposals (20 Effective), 7 Intercept Possessions, 4 Marks and 6 Ground Ball Gets
Projected Votes
1 Vote (St Kilda) Dougal Howard (1)
21 Disposals (20 Effective), 10 Intercept Possessions, 9 Marks (3 Contested and 3 Intercept Marks), 5 Rebound 50s, 8 One Percenters and 4 Spoils
2 Votes (St Kilda) Jack Steele (16)
25 Disposals (20 Effective and 13 Contested), 4 Marks, 9 Clearances, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 9 Tackles and 29 Pressure Acts
3 Votes (St Kilda) Luke Dunstan (6) ⭐⭐
32 Disposals (17 Contested), 4 Marks, 11 Clearances, 9 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 22 Pressure Acts, 667 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
Note – The forgotten Saint continues his excellent form, and this may be his second best on ground performance of the season. The best midfielder on the ground and had a clear impact on the result with many inside 50s and clearances.
North Melbourne vs Gold Coast
North Melbourne 9.18 72 – Gold Coast 9.9 63
(North Melbourne by 9 Points)
The Kangaroos managed their second win of the season with an impressive display in a win over the struggling Suns side.
Midfielders Ben Cunnington and Jy Simpkin again led the way and were the primary beneficiaries of some good ruck work from veteran Todd Goldstein.
The Roos forward line was also dangerous, with Cam Zurhaar and Nick Larkey both having decent matches.
For the Suns, Touk Miller was again their best, and Brandon Ellis racked up a lot of the football.
Vote Chances
Todd Goldstein – 21 Disposals (15 Effective and 12 Contested), 6 Clearances, 9 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets and 13 Hit-outs to advantage
Luke Davies-Uniacke – 25 Disposals (19 Effective and 19 Contested), 9 Intercept Possessions, 5 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 14 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 23 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal
Touk Miller – 32 Disposals (24 Effective and 10 Contested), 6 Marks, 5 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 6 Rebound 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets and 547 Metres Gained
Projected Votes
1 Vote (North Melbourne) Cameron Zurhaar (1)
24 Disposals (19 Effective), 7 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 4 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets and 2 Goals
2 Votes (North Melbourne) Jy Simpkin (8)
30 Disposals (21 Effective and 12 Contested), 4 Marks, 5 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 436 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
3 Votes (North Melbourne) Ben Cunnington (8) ⭐
28 Disposals (19 Effective and 17 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 8 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 4 One Percenters and 1 Goal Assist
Note – The Roos had a good day and had quite a few contributors that may feature in the votes. Cunnington missed the majority of 2020, and polled fewer votes than projected in 2019, despite having an excellent season. Another challenging game to pick, but Cunnington was important for most of the contest and played a big part in the win.
Collingwood vs Fremantle
Collingwood 12.7 79 – Fremantle 14.7 91
(Fremantle by 12 Points)
The Pies hosted the Dockers in an earlier timeslot, and it was the Dockers that came out on top on the back of another impressive display from veteran David Mundy.
The elite ball use and smart decision making of Mundy stood out in the win, but this was more of a solid team effort from the Fremantle side.
Andrew Brayshaw was again solid in the middle of the ground, Luke Ryan impressive down back, and Sean Darcy held his own in the ruck. Rory Lobb stood out in the latter stages of the contest with contested marks and important goals.
The usual suspects at the Pies with Taylor Adams, Steele Sidebottom, Brayden Maynard, Jack Crisp, Scott Pendlebury and Brodie Grundy all having decent matches, but it still wasn’t enough.
Vote Chances
Brodie Grundy – 22 Disposals (15 Effective), 7 Marks (3 Contested and 3 Marks Inside 50), 7 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 10 Hit-outs to advantage and 2 Goals
Scott Pendlebury – 29 Disposals (22 Effective and 15 Contested), 8 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets and 20 Pressure Acts
Andrew Brayshaw – 24 Disposals (19 Effective), 6 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 6 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets and 1 Goal
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Fremantle) Rory Lobb (2)
17 Disposals (12 Effective), 8 Marks (4 Contested and 3 Marks Inside 50), 9 Score Involvements and 3 Goals
2 Votes (Collingwood) Taylor Adams (5)
32 Disposals (15 Contested), 4 Marks, 7 Clearances, 9 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 26 Pressure Acts and 491 Metres Gained
3 Votes (Fremantle) David Mundy (14) ⭐
28 Disposals (21 Effective and 12 Contested), 4 Marks, 4 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 18 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal Assist
Note – The elite skills and smart decision making of the Dockers veteran stand out, and they were on show in important stages in this match. The Pies hung around and had many contributors, but some of Mundy’s in and under work at crucial times, may get him the maximum votes in this one.
Port Adelaide vs Sydney
Port Adelaide 12.9 81 – Sydney 10.11 71
(Port Adelaide by 10 Points)
In one of the matches of the round, the Power were challenged late against Buddy and the Swans, but managed to get the win with a late Scott Lycett goal that won them the match.
Travis Boak led from the front for the Power and was one of the best midfielders on the ground. Ollie Wines was again influential, as was Willem Drew, and defenders Dan Houston and Miles Bergman made solid contributions.
The Swans may have lost the match, but Buddy was brilliant on the closing stages, and Luke Parker and Callum Mills were excellent all game.
Vote Chances
Ollie Wines – 29 Disposals (12 Contested), 7 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 21 Pressure Acts, 438 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
Charlie Dixon – 19 Disposals (13 Contested), 3 Marks (3 Contested), 17 Pressure Acts and 2 Goals
Callum Mills – 30 Disposals (14 Contested), 6 Marks, 10 Clearances, 9 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 571 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Sydney) Lance Franklin (6)
16 Disposals (11 Effective and 10 Contested), 3 Marks (2 Contested), 10 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 1 Goal Assist and 4 Goals
2 Votes (Sydney) Luke Parker (9)
34 Disposals (24 Effective and 17 Contested), 7 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks (2 Contested), 8 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 29 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal
3 Votes (Port Adelaide) Travis Boak (13) ⭐⭐
29 Disposals (20 Effective and 15 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 6 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 8 Tackles, 23 Pressure Acts, 456 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
Note – A cracking game of football, and Boak was the Powers best in the middle of the ground and is a noted vote-getter, finishing second last season. He will be the favourite for the maximum votes as the Power won the match, and it’s hard to go past him.
Essendon vs Melbourne
Essendon 8.9 57 – Melbourne 9.14 68
(Melbourne by 11 Points)
Saturday Night footy saw a couple of in form clubs go at it, and it was the Demons that came out on top with another solid defensive effort.
Jake Lever and Steven May were excellent in this match, but they are defenders, and defenders don’t normally poll well on medal night.
Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver, James Harmes and Max Gawn all had decent games and played a significant part in winning the match for the Dees.
The Bombers may have lost, but Zach Merrett racked up 40+ Possessions, and Darcy Parish was also busy for most of the contest. Jordan Ridley was busy down back, and Kyle Langford continued his decent run of form.
Vote Chances
Darcy Parish – 37 Disposals (29 Effective and 14 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks, 8 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 20 Pressure Acts and 536 Metres Gained
Jake Lever – 18 Disposals (17 Effective), 10 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks (5 Intercept Marks and 2 Contested), 5 Rebound 50s, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 6 One Percenters and 5 Spoils
Steven May – 18 Disposals (18 Effective), 8 Intercept Possessions, 7 Marks (4 Intercept Marks), 4 Rebound 50s, 9 One Percenters and 7 Spoils
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Melbourne) Clayton Oliver (22)
34 Disposals (24 Effective and 15 Contested), 6 Marks, 7 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 21 Pressure Acts and 453 Metres Gained
2 Votes (Melbourne) Christian Petracca (17)
26 Disposals (12 Contested), 6 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 6 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 26 Pressure Acts, 398 Metres Gained and 2 Goals
3 Votes (Essendon) Zach Merrett (13) ⭐⭐
41 Disposals (32 Effective), 5 Marks, 6 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 8 Tackles, 26 Pressure Acts, 563 Metres Gained and 2 Goal Assists
Note – Merrett racked up the possessions in a hurry in this match, and kept the form going for most of the contest. The Bombers lost the match, and he didn’t rack up a lot of contested ball or clearances, but watching this match, he seemed everywhere. He will be the favourite for the maximum votes.
GWS vs Hawthorn
GWS 11.6 72 – Hawthorn 13.12 90
(Hawthorn by 18 Points)
The Giants took on the Hawks at the MCG, and the Hawks continued some decent form with their second win in three matches.
Tom Mitchell led the way with 40 disposals, and Will Day was solid down back for the Hawks.
Dylan Moore was an X-Factor up forward with 4 Goals, and Ben McEvoy contributed significantly throughout the contest.
For the Giants, Lachie Whitfield ended up with a lot of the football, as did Josh Kelly and Tim Taranto.
Vote Chances
Lachie Whitfield – 32 Disposals (24 Effective), 6 Marks, 4 Inside 50s, 6 Tackles and 552 Metres Gained
Jack Scrimshaw – 28 Disposals (24 Effective and 11 Contested), 9 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks (3 Intercept Marks and 2 Contested), 4 Rebound 50s, 7 Ground Ball Gets and 1 Goal Assist
Ben McEvoy – 19 Disposals (14 Effective and 11 Contested), 8 Marks (3 Contested and 3 Marks Inside 50), 8 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 2 Goal Assists and 1 Goal
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Hawthorn) Will Day (1)
29 Disposals (24 Effective and 10 Contested), 10 Intercept Possessions, 7 Marks, 6 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets and 634 Metres Gained
2 Votes (Hawthorn) Dylan Moore (2)
20 Disposals (14 Effective), 4 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 5 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 445 Metres Gained and 4 Goals
3 Votes (Hawthorn) Tom Mitchell (18) ⭐⭐
40 Disposals (31 Effective), 7 Intercept Possessions, 11 Marks (3 Intercept Marks), 8 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 20 Pressure Acts and 402 Metres Gained
Note – Mitchell racked up a lot of the football in the win and was used by teammates on many occasions with 11 marks. The 2018 Brownlow Winner played a match similar to the many that won him the medal a few years back. He will be the favourite for the maximum votes in this one.
West Coast vs Western Bulldogs
West Coast 6.7 43 – Western Bulldogs 13.20 98
(Western Bulldogs by 55 Points)
Wet weather out west and the game plan of the West Coast Eagles continues to struggle when the game is slippery and congested. The Dogs won this match easily and should have won by a greater margin if they had of kicked straight.
The Western Bulldogs were brilliant in this clash, on the back of a best on ground performance from Marcus Bontempelli, who is now the outright Brownlow Medal Favourite.
Jack Macrae and Bailey Smith were busy in the middle, and Aaron Naughton showed off his aerial skills with a stack of contested marks and 4 Goals.
The Eagles looked out of sorts in this match, but Nic Naitanui did his usual thing in the ruck, and Jeremy McGovern was good down back despite the loss.
Vote Chances
Caleb Daniel – 24 Disposals (20 Effective), 5 Intercept Possessions, 9 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 6 Score Involvements and 4 Ground Ball Gets
Jack Macrae – 32 Disposals (26 Effective and 14 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 4 Marks, 7 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 486 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
Lachie Hunter – 27 Disposals, 5 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks, 5 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets and 489 Metres Gained
Projected Votes
1 Vote (W.Bulldogs) Bailey Smith (3)
31 Disposals (21 Effective and 14 Contested), 5 Marks, 6 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 525 Metres Gained and 2 Goals
2 Votes (W.Bulldogs) Aaron Naughton (3)
15 Disposals (13 Effective and 12 Contested), 9 Marks (6 Marks Inside 50 and 5 Contested), 8 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 1 Goal Assist and 4 Goals
Lock of the Week
3 Votes (W.Bulldogs) Marcus Bontempelli (23) ⭐⭐⭐
29 Disposals (19 Effective and 17 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 4 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 10 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles, 24 Pressure Acts, 7 One Percenters, 4 Spoils, 514 Metres Gained and 3 Goals
Note – Bontempelli gets the Lock of the Week and is our new leader for the 2021 Brownlow Medal Predictor after 15 Rounds. A brilliant display in this one, and a goal of the year contender late in the match. Lock in the Three!
Carlton vs Adelaide
Carlton 12.11 83 – Adelaide 10.13 73
(Carlton by 10 Points)
The last game of the round, Carlton shook off a fast-finishing Crows outfit to come out the winners.
Sam Walsh was again brilliant in the middle of the ground, and Zac Williams made up for a lacklustre performance the previous week.
Defenders Liam Jones and Jacob Weitering were rock solid down back and made it challenging for the Crows going forward.
For the Crows, Rory Laird, Ben Keays and Paul Seedsman again all had decent matches and gave the Crows every chance to stay in the contest.
Vote Chances
Zac Williams – 26 Disposals (20 Effective and 10 Contested), 8 Intercept Possessions, 4 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 5 Inside 50s, 6 Rebound 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 626 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
Liam Jones – 11 Disposals (9 Effective), 10 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks (6 Intercept Marks and 3 Contested), 4 Inside 50s, 12 One Percenters and 11 Spoils
Rory Laird – 33 Disposals (22 Effective and 16 Contested), 4 Marks, 8 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 4 Rebound 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 20 Pressure Acts and 526 Metres Gained
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Adelaide) Ben Keays (5)
30 Disposals (21 Effective and 17 Contested), 4 Marks, 7 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 21 Pressure Acts, 551 Metres Gained, 2 Goal Assists and 1 Goal
2 Votes (Carlton) Jacob Weitering (2)
22 Disposals (18 Effective), 12 Intercept Possessions, 16 Marks (6 Intercept Marks and 2 Contested), 8 Rebound 50s, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 11 One Percenters and 10 Spoils
3 Votes (Carlton) Sam Walsh (13) ⭐⭐
38 Disposals (26 Effective and 10 Contested), 7 Marks, 9 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 578 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
Note – The elite running power and work ethic of Walsh, was on show again, and he was the standout in this match. A couple of Blues defenders also significantly impacted the result, but Walsh was the best midfielder on the ground.
Leaderboard – Round 15
Top 10
| Name | Projected Votes |
|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | 23 |
| Clayton Oliver | 22 |
| Darcy Parish | 19 |
| Tom Mitchell | 18 |
| Christian Petracca | 17 |
| Jarryd Lyons | 16 |
| Ollie Wines | 16 |
| Jack Steele | 16 |
| Jack Macrae | 16 |
| David Mundy | 14 |
| Cam Guthrie | 14 |
To see the projected votes from previous rounds, click the Brownlow Medal Predictor 2021 on the menu bar. You can also click the TAGS at the bottom of this post or use the links below.
Cheers and always Gamble Responsibly.