Brownlow Medal Predictor, Round 11 2022

The Brownlow Medal Predictor is back for AFL Season 2022, but will be released later in the season to allow a more in-depth analysis of each AFL match.

All the projected votes, vote chances, key statistics, star ratings and leaderboards will be released gradually towards the latter stages of the 2022 AFL Season.  

The DailySportsBuddy Brownlow Medal Predictor uses a model that focuses on analysing matches and using key statistics that have been consistent from past winners and top performers in previous Brownlow Medal Counts.

Statistics are not everything, but the award is generally a midfielder’s award, with midfielders making up most of the top ten in previous Brownlow Medal Counts.

It is impossible to predict the entire season’s votes in order, but with a bit of research, most players who are a chance of polling in any given match can be identified.

A Star ⭐ Rating is used to show the confidence level of each three-vote prediction.

⭐ = Tough Game to Pick

⭐⭐ = A Decent Chance

⭐⭐⭐ = Should get the Three Votes

The 2021 Brownlow Medal Predictor had a strike rate of 69.7% for three vote predictions last season.

There are many games each season where a player is a clear standout, and the three-star ratings for matches came in at 92.7%.

Click the link below to see all the results from the 2021 Brownlow Medal Predictor.

2021 Brownlow Medal Predictor Results

Here is the Brownlow Medal Predictor for Round 11 of the 2022 AFL Season.

Good luck picking a winner for any category this season, and always remember to Gamble Responsibly.


Brownlow Medal Predictor, Round 11 2022

Sydney vs Richmond

Sydney 16.10 106 – Richmond 15.10 100

(Sydney by 6 Points)

Vote Chances

Chad Warner – 27 Disposals (14 Contested), 6 Clearances, 9 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 23 Pressure Acts, 541 Metres Gained and 2 Goal Assists

Peter Ladhams – 19 Disposals (16 Contested and 14 Effective), 9 Clearances, 8 Score Involvements, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Hit-outs to advantage, 3 One Percenters and 1 Goal Assist

Dion Prestia – 25 Disposals (18 Effective), 6 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 5 Tackles, 18 Pressure Acts, 2 Goal Assists and 1 Goal

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Richmond) Toby Nankervis (1)

21 Disposals (11 Contested), 4 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 6 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 5 One Percenters, 3 Spoils, 9 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 21 Pressure Acts and 316 Metres Gained

2 Votes (Sydney) Luke Parker (7)

26 Disposals (17 Effective and 10 Contested), 5 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 7 Clearances, 9 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 3 One Percenters, 5 Tackles, 24 Pressure Acts, 559 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal

3 Votes (Sydney) Lance Franklin (5) ⭐⭐

10 Disposals (8 Effective), 5 Marks (3 Marks Inside 50), 7 Score Involvements, 18 Pressure Acts and 5 Goals

Note – The Swans won a close high scoring contest against the Tigers on a Friday Night, and Lance Franklin won the Goodes-O’Loughlin Medal for a best-on-ground performance.

Buddy didn’t win a lot of the football, but was a clear X-Factor when the match was up for grabs and finished the game with five goals, including three in the final term.

The minor votes could go several ways, but Swans midfielder Luke Parker was busy throughout the contest, and Toby Nankervis provided a lot of pressure on the opposition and battled hard in the ruck.

Franklin won the medal and will likely be the favourite for the maximum votes.


Brisbane vs GWS

Brisbane 16.14 110 – GWS 15.6 96

(Brisbane by 14 Points)

Vote Chances

Lincoln McCarthy – 12 Disposals (11 Effective), 5 Marks (3 Marks Inside 50), 6 Score Involvements, 4 Ground Ball Gets, 18 Pressure Acts and 4 Goals

Cam Rayner – 25 Disposals (18 Effective and 12 Contested), 4 Marks, 6 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 424 Metres Gained, 2 Goal Assists and 1 Goal

Harrison Himmelberg – 21 Disposals (18 Effective), 6 Intercept Possessions, 7 Marks (4 Intercept Marks), 11 Rebound 50s, 10 One Percenters, 9 Spoils, 4 Tackles, 735 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist

Projected Votes

1 Vote (GWS) Josh Kelly (4)

31 Disposals (27 Effective and 11 Contested), 6 Marks, 6 Clearances, 8 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 20 Pressure Acts and 2 Goals

2 Votes (Brisbane) Jarrod Berry (2)

33 Disposals (24 Effective and 10 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 10 Marks (2 Intercept Marks and 2 Contested), 8 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 674 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal

3 Votes (Brisbane) Lachie Neale (21) ⭐⭐

39 Disposals (26 Effective and 19 Contested), 5 Marks, 9 Clearances, 9 Score Involvements, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 22 Pressure Acts, 498 Metres Gained and 2 Goals

Note – The Giants stayed in this match for most of the day, but the Lions were too good in the end and won the match by a small margin.

Lachie Neale was again impressive with a lot of contested footy, and he managed to boot a couple of goals, but Jarrod Berry played his best match of the season and may challenge for highest vote honours.

Josh Kelly was the Giant’s best and snagged a couple of goals, but the 2020 Brownlow Medal Winner, Lachie Neale, will be tough to top in the Lion’s win.


Geelong vs Adelaide

Geelong 15.7 97 – Adelaide 7.13 55

(Geelong by 42 Points)

Vote Chances

Jeremy Cameron – 12 Disposals, 4 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 4 Ground Ball Gets, 1 Goal Assist and 4 Goals

Joel Selwood – 24 Disposals (20 Effective), 5 Inside 50s, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 3 One Percenters, 13 Tackles, 25 Pressure Acts, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal

Rory Laird – 38 Disposals (29 Effective and 20 Contested), 14 Clearances, 6 Score Involvements, 14 Ground Ball Gets, 8 Tackles and 27 Pressure Acts

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Adelaide) Reilly O’Brien (1)

28 Disposals (24 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks (3 Contested and 2 Intercept Marks), 9 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 5 Rebound 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 15 Hit-outs to advantage, 6 One Percenters, 6 Spoils and 7 Tackles

2 Votes (Geelong) Cam Guthrie (5)

34 Disposals (23 Effective and 20 Contested), 7 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 7 Clearances, 5 Score Involvements, 14 Ground Ball Gets, 8 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 31 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal Assist

3 Votes (Geelong) Tom Stewart (7) ⭐⭐⭐

40 Disposals (34 Effective and 10 Contested), 17 Intercept Possessions, 16 Marks (5 Intercept Marks), 5 Inside 50s, 10 Rebound 50s, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 9 One Percenters, 9 Spoils and 874 Metres Gained

Note – The Cats got it done against the Crows, and Tom Stewart had the footy on a string with 34 kicks, many interceptions, and a massive 874 metres gained.

Stewart was the best player on the ground, making it challenging for the Crow’s forwards to have any significant impact in the match.

Cats midfielder Cam Guthrie racked up plenty of contested football, and Jeremy Cameron stepped up again and booted four goals.

The Crows lost the match, but Reilly O’Brien had a big day in the ruck, and Rory Laird racked up a lot of the footy, but Stewart should get the three votes in this match.


Melbourne vs Fremantle

Melbourne 7.14 56 – Fremantle 14.10 94

(Fremantle by 38 Points)

Vote Chances

Andrew Brayshaw – 28 Disposals (24 Effective), 6 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 19 Pressure Acts, 410 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist

Michael Frederick – 17 Disposals (13 Effective), 4 Marks, 11 Score Involvements, 18 Pressure Acts, 2 Goal Assists and 2 Goals

Luke Ryan – 29 Disposals (29 Effective), 14 Marks, 10 Rebound 50s and 562 Metres Gained

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Fremantle) Lachie Schultz (5)

18 Disposals, 7 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 2 Goal Assists and 4 Goals

2 Votes (Fremantle) Rory Lobb (2)

15 Disposals (12 Effective), 9 Marks (3 Contested and 3 Marks Inside 50), 4 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 4 One Percenters, 3 Spoils, 16 Pressure Acts, 387 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 3 Goals

3 Votes (Fremantle) Sean Darcy (6)

16 Disposals (14 Effective and 12 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 4 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 4 Rebound 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 14 Hit-outs to advantage and 1 Goal

Note – The Dockers upset the Demons on the back of a massive second half, and they had many that contributed to the win.

Sean Darcy won a lot of taps against tough opposition and gave the Dockers midfielders first use of the football on many occasions.

Dockers big man Rory Lobb stepped up in the forward line for Fremantle and was dangerous each time the ball went down there, and Lachie Schultz found the football in dangerous positions and managed to boot four goals.

A tough match to split the votes as the Dockers had many contributors, but looking unlikely a Demon will sneak in as it was an upset win and Fremantle dominated the second half.


West Coast vs Western Bulldogs

West Coast 9.6 60 – Western Bulldogs 25.11 161

(Western Bulldogs by 101 Points)

Vote Chances

Tim Kelly – 38 Disposals (27 Effective and 19 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 11 Clearances, 9 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 12 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 29 Pressure Acts, 544 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal

Bailey Williams – 23 Disposals (18 Effective), 4 Inside 50s, 12 Score Involvements, 4 Ground Ball Gets, 17 Pressure Acts, 465 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 2 Goals

Tom Liberatore – 20 Disposals (18 Effective and 15 Contested), 10 Clearances, 6 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 3 One Percenters, 7 Tackles, 24 Pressure Acts, 2 Goal Assists and 1 Goal

Projected Votes

1 Vote (W.Bulldogs) Josh Dunkley (7)

25 Disposals (23 Effective), 12 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 12 Score Involvements, 7 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 2 Goal Assists and 2 Goals

2 Votes (W.Bulldogs) Adam Treloar (5)

35 Disposals (25 Effective and 13 Contested), 9 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 4 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 534 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

3 Votes (W.Bulldogs) Tim English (6) ⭐⭐⭐

25 Disposals (22 Effective and 14 Contested), 4 Marks (2 Contested), 7 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 11 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 8 Hit-outs to advantage, 4 One Percenters, 3 Spoils, 4 Tackles, 405 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal

Note – The Bulldogs had no trouble against a struggling Eagles side and had many contributors in the sizeable 101-point victory.

Bulldogs ruckman Tim English greatly impacted the match and used the footy well to be the best player on the ground. English dominated the ruck and won a lot of the football throughout the win, as did Adam Treloar.

Tim Kelly was the Eagle’s best and is a slim chance to poll, but it will be challenging in such a sizeable loss.


Gold Coast vs Hawthorn

Gold Coast 18.13 121 – Hawthorn 7.12 54

(Gold Coast by 67 Points)

Vote Chances

Touk Miller – 24 Disposals (11 Contested), 6 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 531 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal

Charlie Ballard – 18 Disposals (12 Effective), 13 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks (6 Intercept Marks), 6 Rebound 50s, 4 Score Involvements, 4 Ground Ball Gets, 9 One Percenters, 7 Spoils and 413 Metres Gained

David Swallow – 21 Disposals (14 Effective), 5 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 20 Pressure Acts, 498 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Gold Coast) Jarrod Witts (4)

18 Disposals (14 Contested), 4 Intercept Possessions, 9 Clearances, 5 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 11 Hit-outs to advantage, 6 One Percenters and 5 Spoils

2 Votes (Gold Coast) Lachie Weller (4)

27 Disposals (18 Effective), 6 Intercept Possessions, 4 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 4 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 9 Rebound 50s, 4 Score Involvements, 937 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

3 Votes (Gold Coast) Brandon Ellis (3)

24 Disposals (15 Effective and 11 Contested), 8 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks, 5 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 370 Metres Gained and 2 Goals

Note – The Suns were too good for the Hawks and had many contributors in a tough match to split the votes.

Suns ruckman Jarrod Witts won the ruck battle easily, and Lachie Weller was damaging across half back with a lot of run and carry, but Brandon Ellis stood out when the Suns established their sizeable halftime lead.

Ellis hit the scoreboard with a couple of goals and had a huge second term to be one of the standouts, but there are many contenders for the votes in this clash.


St Kilda vs North Melbourne

St Kilda 16.7 103 – North Melbourne 7.8 50

(St Kilda by 53 Points)

Vote Chances

Seb Ross – 28 Disposals (22 Effective and 12 Contested), 5 Marks, 4 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 18 Pressure Acts, 440 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal

Callum Wilkie – 19 Disposals (17 Effective), 6 Intercept Possessions, 12 Marks (4 Contested and 3 Intercept Marks), 4 Rebound 50s, 9 One Percenters and 6 Spoils

Jed Anderson – 28 Disposals (20 Effective and 12 Contested), 8 Marks (2 Contested and 2 Marks Inside 50), 7 Clearances, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 12 Tackles, 25 Pressure Acts, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal

Projected Votes

1 Vote (St Kilda) Brad Hill (3)

33 Disposals (24 Effective), 9 Marks, 6 Inside 50s, 4, Score Involvements, 4 Ground Ball Gets, 664 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

2 Votes (St Kilda) Jack Sinclair (6)

32 Disposals (25 Effective), 5 Intercept Possessions, 10 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 7 Inside 50s, 5 Rebound 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 764 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist

3 Votes (St Kilda) Jade Gresham (6)

30 Disposals (18 Effective and 15 Contested), 7 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 18 Pressure Acts and 2 Goals

Note – The Saints made the most of a favourable matchup against the Kangaroos and had many contributors in the big win.

Jade Gresham stepped up and racked up 30 disposals and two second-half goals to finish the match well.

Jack Sinclair was again damaging across half back, as was Brad Hill, but the votes could go several ways in the win as the Saints won on the back of a solid team effort.


Collingwood vs Carlton

Collingwood 11.13 79 – Carlton 11.9 75

(Collingwood by 4 Points)

Vote Chances

Steele Sidebottom – 17 Disposals (12 Effective), 4 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks (4 Marks Inside 50), 6 Score Involvements, 4 Ground Ball Gets, 4 One Percenters, 3 Spoils, 1 Goal Assist and 2 Goals

Jeremy Howe – 20 Disposals (15 Effective and 10 Contested), 10 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks (2 Intercept Marks and 2 Contested), 11 Rebound 50s, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 8 One Percenters, 7 Spoils and 590 Metres Gained

Adam Cerra – 30 Disposals (23 Effective and 14 Contested), 5 Marks, 7 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 5 Rebound 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 19 Pressure Acts, 668 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Collingwood) Jack Crisp (11)

27 Disposals (18 Effective and 14 Contested), 5 Marks, 5 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 29 Pressure Acts and 446 Metres Gained

2 Votes (Carlton) Sam Walsh (11)

35 Disposals (22 Effective and 13 Contested), 5 Marks, 4 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 4 Rebound 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 588 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

3 Votes (Collingwood) Jordan De Goey (8)

24 Disposals (19 Effective), 6 Inside 50s, 5 Rebound 50s, 11 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 17 Pressure Acts, 505 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal

Note – The Magpies won a close match over the Blues, in a tough match to split the votes.

Sam Walsh was probably the best player on the ground, but the Pies won the match, and Jordan De Goey played a vital role in the second half with effective use of the football and some smart decisions that helped set up scoring chances.

There will be several contenders for votes in this clash, and Pies big man Mason Cox also played an important role in the second half to help the Pies get the win.


Port Adelaide vs Essendon

Port Adelaide 9.12 66 – Essendon 6.14 50

(Port Adelaide by 16 Points)

Vote Chances

Travis Boak – 23 Disposals (19 Effective and 10 Contested), 8 Clearances, 6 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles and 26 Pressure Acts

Zak Butters – 24 Disposals (11 Contested), 5 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 17 Pressure Acts, 2 Goal Assists and 1 Goal

Nic Martin – 25 Disposals (19 Effective), 12 Marks, 7 Inside 50s, 4 Rebound 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 576 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Port Adelaide) Connor Rozee (5)

24 Disposals (17 Effective), 5 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 4 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 7 Tackles, 28 Pressure Acts, 433 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal

2 Votes (Port Adelaide) Ollie Wines (7)

29 Disposals (17 Contested), 8 Intercept Possessions, 6 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 13 Ground Ball Gets, 28 Pressure Acts, 542 Metres Gained and 2 Goal Assists

3 Votes (Essendon) Darcy Parish (13)

39 Disposals (27 Effective and 18 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks, 7 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 15 Ground Ball Gets, 29 Pressure Acts and 462 Metres Gained

Note – The Power took care of the Bombers in a low-scoring contest, and despite the loss, the Bombers had one of the better players on the ground.

Darcy Parish continues to rack up a heap of the football, but this match was tough to split.

Ollie Wines is a proven vote-getter and did his usual thing in the middle of the ground, whilst Connor Rozee was dangerous at times and helped set up a lot of scoring chances for the Power.

Tough to split the votes in this clash, and they could go several ways.


Leaderboard

Leaderboard – Round 11

Top 10

NameProjected Votes
Lachie Neale21
Clayton Oliver18
Patrick Cripps17
Andrew Brayshaw16
Christian Petracca15
Darcy Parish13
Sam Walsh11
Jack Crisp11
Callum Mills11
Charlie Curnow10

To see all the votes for previous rounds, click the link Brownlow Medal Predictor 2022 on the menu bar. You can also use the TAGS at the bottom of this post or click the links below.

Best of luck picking a winner, and always remember to Gamble Responsibly.

Round 1

Round 2

Round 3

Round 4

Round 5

Round 6

Round 7

Round 8

Round 9

Round 10