Brownlow Medal Predictor, Round 21 2022

The Brownlow Medal Predictor is back for AFL Season 2022.

All the projected votes, vote chances, key statistics, star ratings and leaderboards will be released gradually towards the latter stages of the 2022 AFL Season.  

The DailySportsBuddy Brownlow Medal Predictor uses a model that focuses on analysing matches and key statistics that have been consistent from past winners and top performers in previous Brownlow Medal Counts.

Statistics are not everything, but the award is generally a midfielder’s award, with midfielders making up most of the top ten in previous Brownlow Medal Counts.

It is impossible to predict the entire season’s votes in order, but with a bit of research, most players who are a chance of polling in any given match can be identified.

A Star ⭐ Rating is used to show the confidence level of each three-vote prediction.

⭐ = Tough Game to Pick

⭐⭐ = A Decent Chance

⭐⭐⭐ = Should get the Three Votes

The 2021 Brownlow Medal Predictor had a strike rate of 69.7% for three vote predictions last season.

There are many games each season where a player is a clear standout, and the three-star ratings for matches came in at 92.7%.

Click the link below to see all the results from the 2021 Brownlow Medal Predictor.

2021 Brownlow Medal Predictor Results

Here is the Brownlow Medal Predictor for Round 21 of the 2022 AFL Season.

Good luck picking a winner for any category this season, and always remember to Gamble Responsibly.


Brownlow Medal Predictor, Round 21 2022

Melbourne vs Collingwood

Melbourne 13.11 89 – Collingwood 15.6 96

(Collingwood by 7 Points)

Vote Chances

Christian Petracca – 36 Disposals (25 Effective and 12 Contested), 8 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 12 Ground Ball Gets, 553 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal

Jamie Elliott – 13 Disposals, 3 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 4 Score Involvements, 3 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles (3 Tackles Inside 50), 19 Pressure Acts and 4 Goals

Jack Crisp – 24 Disposals (18 Effective and 13 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 4 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 4 Score Involvements, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 8 Tackles, 25 Pressure Acts and 542 Metres Gained

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Melbourne) Clayton Oliver (25)

42 Disposals (29 Effective and 24 Contested), 14 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 14 Ground Ball Gets, 8 Tackles, 27 Pressure Acts, 412 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist

2 Votes (Melbourne) Max Gawn (14)

31 Disposals (14 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 10 Marks (4 Contested, 3 Intercept Marks and 2 Marks Inside 50), 10 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 4 Ground Ball Gets, 5 One Percenters, 3 Spoils, 490 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist

3 Votes (Collingwood) Jordan De Goey (12)

25 Disposals (17 Effective and 12 Contested), 9 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 3 Tackles, 20 Pressure Acts, 476 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal

Note – This may be one of the toughest matches to split the votes all season, as the Pies won the match, but the Demons had a few of the more consistent four-quarter performers.

Collingwood midfielder Jordan De Goey didn’t mess around with the football racking up 9 clearances for the match and was a key contributor in the closing stages. He arched the back and accelerated from packs with penetrating kicks forward and had a noticeable impact throughout the match.

The defensive forward pressure of Jamie Elliott and forward smarts Ash Johnson was a deciding factor in the closing stages, and Jack Crisp stepped up in the last quarter, whilst Nick Daicos used the footy well for most of the night.

It wouldn’t be surprising if the Pies swept the votes in the upset win, but Max Gawn and Clayton Oliver played a consistent four-quarters of footy and are a genuine chance to poll votes despite the loss.


Hawthorn vs Gold Coast

Hawthorn 10.10 70 – Gold Coast 8.15 63

(Hawthorn by 7 Points)

Vote Chances

Dylan Moore – 26 Disposals (18 Effective and 15 Contested), 8 Clearances, 5 Score Involvements, 12 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 17 Pressure Acts, 450 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist

Jai Newcombe – 27 Disposals (21 Effective and 11 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 7 Marks, 9 Ground Ball Gets and 399 Metres Gained

Elijah Hollands – 23 Disposals (18 Effective), 5 Intercept Possessions, 9 Marks, 5 Inside 50s, 4 Score Involvements, 521 Metres Gained and 2 Goals

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Gold Coast) David Swallow (5)

33 Disposals (15 Contested), 6 Marks, 6 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 12 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 22 Pressure Acts and 494 Metres Gained

2 Votes (Hawthorn) Jaeger O’Meara (3)

20 Disposals (13 Contested), 4 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 8 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 4 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 8 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 26 Pressure Acts, 404 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal

3 Votes (Hawthorn) Jack Gunston (9) ⭐⭐

14 Disposals (12 Effective), 8 Marks (5 Marks Inside 50 and 2 Contested), 9 Score Involvements, 3 Ground Ball Gets, 323 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 5 Goals

Note – This match wasn’t the best game of footy to watch, but the Hawks managed to get the win, despite the Suns coming back in the closing stages.

Hawks forward Jack Gunston was dangerous up forward for most of the match and booted 5 goals in a low-scoring contest.

Hawthorn midfielders Jaeger O’Meara, Jai Newcombe and Dylan Moore, had decent matches in the middle of the ground, whilst David Swallow was the Suns best player, and he racked up a stack of the footy.

Gunston will be tough to beat for the top votes, as 5 goals or more in a low-scoring match has been enough to get the maximum votes in previous counts.


GWS vs Essendon

GWS 14.12 96 – Essendon 10.9 69

(GWS by 27 Points)

Vote Chances

Harry Perryman – 23 Disposals (18 Effective and 12 Contested), 4 Intercept Possessions, 6 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 24 Pressure Acts, and 1 Goal

Darcy Parish – 28 Disposals (22 Effective and 14 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 7 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 20 Pressure Acts, and 1 Goal Assist

Matt Guelfi – 9 Disposals, 4 Marks (3 Marks Inside 50 and 2 Contested), 6 Score Involvements, 3 Ground Ball Gets and 4 Goals

Projected Votes

1 Vote (GWS) Callan Ward (1)

25 Disposals (20 Effective), 10 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 5 Clearances, 4 Score Involvements, 2 Goal Assists and 1 Goal

2 Votes (GWS) Lachie Whitfield (2)

29 Disposals (21 Effective and 10 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 5 Inside 50S, 4 Rebound 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 544 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal

3 Votes (GWS) Jesse Hogan (6) ⭐⭐

17 Disposals (13 Effective), 12 Marks (4 Marks Inside 50 and 3 Contested), 8 Score Involvements, 3 Ground Ball Gets, 3 Tackles (3 Tackles Inside 50), 301 Metres Gained and 4 Goals

Note – The Giants were tested early against the Bombers but pulled away in the second half and won the match by a comfortable margin.

Giants forward Jesse Hogan was dangerous for the majority of the contest and managed to hit the scoreboard with 4 goals.

The ball use and smart decision-making of Lachie Whitfield stood out in this match, and Callan Ward was also damaging with the footy at times.

It will likely be a battle between Hogan and Whitfield for the top votes, but 2 final quarter goals to help seal the match may be enough for the Giants forward to get the maximum votes.


Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle

Western Bulldogs 11.12 78 – Fremantle 14.11 95

(Fremantle by 17 Points)

Vote Chances

Caleb Serong – 24 Disposals (20 Effective and 11 Contested), 8 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 28 Pressure Acts and 412 Metres Gained

Andrew Brayshaw – 21 Disposals (13 Effective), 6 Marks, 5 Clearances, 5 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 8 Tackles, 40 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal

Jordan Clark – 26 Disposals (24 Effective), 6 Intercept Possessions, 10 Marks, 5 Rebound 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 4 One Percenters and 3 Spoils

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Fremantle) Rory Lobb (4)

7 Disposals, 7 Marks (6 Marks Inside 50 and 2 Contested), 6 Score Involvements, 7 One Percenters, 7 Spoils and 4 Goals

2 Votes (W.Bulldogs) Josh Dunkley (9)

33 Disposals (25 Effective and 21 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 6 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 17 Ground Ball Gets, 4 One Percenters, 4 Tackles, 19 Pressure Acts, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal

3 Votes (Fremantle) Luke Ryan (3) ⭐⭐

32 Disposals (31 Effective), 7 Intercept Possessions, 15 Marks (3 Intercept Marks), 11 Rebound 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 5 One Percenters, 4 Spoils, 4 Tackles and 573 Metres Gained

Note – Fremantle stepped up away from home and managed to keep their final four chances alive with a big win against the Bulldogs.

The Dockers controlled the football from their back half, leading the mark count 140-90 in the win.

Dockers defender Luke Ryan was the standout with elite use of the football, and his 32 disposals came at a massive 97% efficiency rate. Ryan helped set the Dockers up numerous times throughout the contest and racked up 9 score involvements as a defender.

Rory Lobb significantly impacted the result and booted 4 goals from just the 7 disposals, whilst Caleb Serong, Andrew Brayshaw and Jordan Clark made contributions for the Dockers.

Josh Dunkley was the best player for the Bulldogs and racked up plenty of the football, but Luke Ryan will be tough to beat for the top votes, despite being a defender.


Geelong vs St Kilda

Geelong 17.8 110 – St Kilda 10.5 65

(Geelong by 45 Points)

Vote Chances

Sam Menegola – 25 Disposals (17 Effective), 6 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 3 One Percenters, 449 Metres Gained, 2 Goal Assists and 1 Goal

Cam Guthrie – 22 Disposals (10 Contested), 6 Clearances, 5 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 28 Pressure Acts and 2 One Percenters

Rhys Stanley – 16 Disposals (15 Effective), 4 Marks (2 Contested and 2 Intercept Marks), 5 Clearances, 7 Score Involvements, 5 One Percenters, 4 Spoils, 7 Tackles and 18 Pressure Acts

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Geelong) Max Holmes (1)

24 Disposals (17 Effective and 10 Contested), 6 Marks, 4 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 3 Tackles, 29 Pressure Acts, 531 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

2 Votes (Geelong) Brandon Parfitt (2)

25 Disposals (19 Effective and 17 Contested), 10 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 12 Ground Ball Gets, 3 One Percenters, 6 Tackles, 23 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal Assist

3 Votes (Geelong) Isaac Smith (5)

21 Disposals (17 Effective), 7 Marks, 6 Inside 50s, 11 Score Involvements, 493 Metres Gained, 2 Goal Assists and 3 Goals

Note – The Cats were too good for the Saints and won the match comfortably on home soil. A few other Cats stood up in this clash, with several players who will contend for the top votes.

The run and carry of Isaac Smith stood out at times, and anytime a midfielder kicks 3 or more goals, they are usually a chance at getting some votes.

Brandon Parfitt was busy in the middle and racked up 10 clearances, and Max Holmes had a decent day on the wing for the Cats.

A tough match to split the votes, but 3 goals from veteran Isaac Smith may be enough to get the top votes.


Port Adelaide vs Richmond

Port Adelaide 10.11 71 – Richmond 16.13 109

(Richmond 38 Points)

Vote Chances

Ollie Wines – 32 Disposals (25 Effective and 13 Contested), 9 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks, 4 Clearances, 6 Score Involvements, 6 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 26 Pressure Acts and 12 Ground Ball Gets

Trent Cotchin – 31 Disposals (17 Contested), 5 Marks, 6 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 4 One Percenters, 6 Tackles, 19 Pressure Acts and 3 Goal Assists

Daniel Rioli – 25 Disposals (19 Effective), 8 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 5 Rebound 50s, 4 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 510 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 2 Goals

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Richmond) Toby Nankervis (2)

29 Disposals (21 Effective and 14 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 4 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 8 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 4 Ground Ball Gets, 12 Hit-outs to advantage, 6 One Percenters, 5 Spoils and 1 Goal Assist

2 Votes (Richmond) Dion Prestia (13)

32 Disposals (23 Contested), 4 Intercept Possessions, 10 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 4 Rebound 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 15 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 34 Pressure Acts, 476 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist

3 Votes (Richmond) Shai Bolton (17)

17 Disposals (11 Effective and 11 Contested), 4 Marks (4 Marks Inside 50 and 2 Contested), 4 Clearances, 10 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 393 Metres Gained and 4 Goals

Note – The Tigers continue to finish the season well and will have several contenders for the top votes in a difficult match to split.

Shai Bolton was dangerous up forward for most of the match and probably should have kicked more goals as he ended up with 4 goals and 5 behinds.

Tigers ruckman Toby Nankervis dominated the ruck and racked up a stack of the football, whilst Dion Prestia and Trent Cotchin had a significant impact throughout the match.

A tough match to split the votes, and they may go to one of the Tigers midfielders, but Shai Bolton stood out up forward.


North Melbourne vs Sydney

North Melbourne 13.10 88 – Sydney 18.18 126

(Sydney by 38 Points)

Vote Chances

Luke Davies-Uniacke – 30 Disposals (20 Effective and 14 Contested), 4 Intercept Possessions, 4 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 6 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 24 Pressure Acts, 509 Metres Gained, 2 Goal Assists and 1 Goal

Luke Parker – 29 Disposals (18 Effective and 12 Contested), 7 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 9 Tackles, 25 Pressure Acts and 380 Metres Gained

Isaac Heeney – 21 Disposals (15 Effective and 11 Contested), 5 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 11 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles (5 Tackles Inside 50), 14 Pressure Acts and 2 Goals

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Sydney) Tom Hickey (1)

20 Disposals (15 Contested), 9 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 4 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 9 Hit-outs to advantage and 1 Goal Assist

2 Votes (North Melbourne) Nick Larkey (7)

11 Disposals, 3 Marks (3 Marks Inside 50), 8 Score Involvements and 7 Goals

3 Votes (Sydney) Chad Warner (13) ⭐⭐

20 Disposals (15 Effective and 10 Contested), 6 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 11 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 25 Pressure Acts, 633 Metres Gained and 3 Goals

Note – The Swans had no issues taking care of the Kangaroos and led the match from start to finish.

Chad Warner continued his impressive form, booting 3 goals, and helped set up several scoring chances throughout the day.

Tom Hickey had an impact in the ruck, and Luke Parker was one of the better midfielders on the ground.

Kangaroos forward Nick Larkey had a day out up forward for the Roos despite the loss and is a genuine chance to get votes with 7 goals, but Warner will be tough to beat for the top votes.


Brisbane vs Carlton

Brisbane 17.12 114 – Carlton 12.9 81

(Brisbane by 33 Points)

Vote Chances

Hugh McCluggage – 28 Disposals (18 Effective), 6 Marks, 7 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 4 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles and 1 Goal Assist

Daniel McStay – 16 Disposals, 7 Marks (3 Contested and 3 Marks Inside 50), 6 Score Involvements, 4 Ground Ball Gets, 1 Goal Assist and 4 Goals

Rhys Mathieson – 24 Disposals (18 Effective and 11 Contested), 4 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks, 5 Clearances, 8 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 16 Pressure Acts, 408 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Brisbane) Oscar McInerney (1)

19 Disposals (16 Contested), 4 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 8 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 4 Ground Ball Gets, 13 Hit-outs to advantage, 4 Tackles and 356 Metres Gained

2 Votes (Brisbane) Zac Bailey (6)

19 Disposals (13 Effective), 6 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 7 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 3 Tackles, 19 Pressure Acts, 575 Metres Gained, 2 Goal Assists and 4 Goals

3 Votes (Brisbane) Lachie Neale (30) ⭐⭐

32 Disposals (23 Effective and 20 Contested), 4 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks, 9 Clearances, 10 Score Involvements, 13 Ground Ball Gets, 20 Pressure Acts, 414 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

Note – The Lions took care of the Blues and led the match from start to finish.

Lachie Neale had a busy day in the middle of the ground for the Lions and racked up a lot of contested footy throughout the win. However, Neale will have some competition for the top votes in this clash, as Zac Bailey was dangerous around the sticks and impacted the match with 4 goals.

Oscar McInerney won the ruck battle for the Lions, but the battle for the top votes will likely be between Neale and Bailey.


West Coast vs Adelaide

West Coast 13.8 86 – Adelaide 16.6 102

(Adelaide by 16 Points)

Vote Chances

Nic Naitanui – 15 Disposals (12 Contested and 11 Effective), 9 Clearances, 8 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 11 Hit-outs to advantage, 5 One Percenters, 4 Spoils, 5 Tackles and 15 Pressure Acts

Jordan Dawson – 27 Disposals (16 Effective), 8 Intercept Possessions, 4 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 13 Rebound 50s, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 5 One Percenters, 4 Spoils and 691 Metres Gained

Darcy Fogarty – 13 Disposals, 7 Marks (5 Marks Inside 50 and 3 Contested), 4 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 3 One Percenters, 319 Metres Gained and 4 Goals

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Adelaide) Sam Berry (1)

19 Disposals (16 Contested and 13 Effective), 8 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 12 Tackles, 24 Pressure Acts and 419 Metres Gained

2 Votes (Adelaide) Rory Laird (14)

36 Disposals (20 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 10 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 12 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 20 Pressure Acts, 484 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 2 Goals

3 Votes (West Coast) Josh Kennedy (6) ⭐⭐

15 Disposals (11 Effective), 8 Marks (8 Marks Inside 50), 11 Score Involvements, 4 Ground Ball Gets, 331 Metres Gained and 8 Goals

Note – The Eagles put up a fight in Josh Kennedy’s last game, but the Crows were too good in the end and pulled away in the second half.

Josh Kennedy made the most of his teammates looking for him on many occasions and booted 8 goals in an impressive farewell match. Kennedy took 8 marks inside the forward fifty and will be the leading contender for the top votes.

Rory Laird was the best midfielder on the ground, and Sam Berry had a noticeable impact in the middle with a stack of tackles and clearances.

Rory Laird will challenge for the top votes, but Kennedy’s 8 goals in his farewell match should be enough despite the loss.


Leaderboard

Leaderboard – Round 21

Top 10

NameProjected Votes
Lachie Neale30
Andrew Brayshaw27
Clayton Oliver25
Touk Miller23
Patrick Cripps21
Christian Petracca21
Shai Bolton17
Jeremy Cameron16
Sam Walsh15
Zach Merrett15
Connor Rozee15
Callum Mills15

To see all the votes for previous rounds, click the link Brownlow Medal Predictor 2022 on the menu bar. You can also use the TAGS at the bottom of this post or click the links below.

Best of luck picking a winner, and always remember to Gamble Responsibly.

Round 1

Round 2

Round 3

Round 4

Round 5

Round 6

Round 7

Round 8

Round 9

Round 10

Round 11

Round 12

Round 13

Round 14

Round 15

Round 16

Round 17

Round 18

Round 19

Round 20