The Brownlow Medal Predictor is back for AFL Season 2022.
All the projected votes, vote chances, key statistics, star ratings and leaderboards will be released gradually towards the latter stages of the 2022 AFL Season.
The DailySportsBuddy Brownlow Medal Predictor uses a model that focuses on analysing matches and key statistics that have been consistent from past winners and top performers in previous Brownlow Medal Counts.
Statistics are not everything, but the award is generally a midfielder’s award, with midfielders making up most of the top ten in previous Brownlow Medal Counts.
It is impossible to predict the entire season’s votes in order, but with a bit of research, most players who are a chance of polling in any given match can be identified.
A Star ⭐ Rating is used to show the confidence level of each three-vote prediction.
⭐ = Tough Game to Pick
⭐⭐ = A Decent Chance
⭐⭐⭐ = Should get the Three Votes
Here is the Brownlow Medal Predictor for Round 22 of the 2022 AFL Season.
Good luck picking a winner for any category this season, and always remember to Gamble Responsibly.
St Kilda vs Brisbane
St Kilda 9.12 66 – Brisbane 12.9 81
(Brisbane by 15 Points)
Vote Chances
Seb Ross – 32 Disposals (22 Effective and 15 Contested), 4 Intercept Possessions, 7 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 12 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles and 1 Goal Assist
Marcus Windhager – 21 Disposals, 7 Marks, 5 Clearances, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 341 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
Daniel Rich – 26 Disposals (22 Effective), 7 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks, 7 Rebound 50s, 4 Ground Ball Gets, 6 One Percenters, 3 Spoils and 568 Metres Gained
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Brisbane) Hugh McCluggage (11)
24 Disposals (19 Effective and 11 Contested), 5 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 18 Pressure Acts, 2 Goal Assists and 1 Goal
2 Votes (St Kilda) Mason Wood (2)
15 Disposals (12 Effective), 4 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets and 4 Goals
3 Votes (Brisbane) Cam Rayner (3) ⭐⭐
18 Disposals (10 Contested), 4 Marks (2 Contested), 4 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 351 Metres Gained and 4 Goals
Note – The Saints needed the win to keep their finals chances alive, but the Lions were too good on home soil and won the match in a lower-scoring contest.
Players that have kicked 4 goals or more in a lower-scoring match have picked up votes in previous counts, and there were no clear standouts in the middle of the ground in this match.
Cam Rayner was lively up forward in this clash, booting 4 goals, including 3 in the final term, to be the X-Factor in the concluding stages.
Mason Wood chipped in with 4 goals for the Saints and was a big reason the Saints were able to stay in the match and establish a three-quarter time lead.
Lion’s midfielder Hugh McCluggage had some impressive moments in the middle of the ground, whilst Daniel Rich set the play up from the back half.
The Saints were beaten, but Seb Ross had an impressive match with 32 disposals, and Marcus Windhager tagged Lachie Neale and kept him to just 16 disposals.
Western Bulldogs vs GWS
Western Bulldogs 9.8 62 – GWS 8.9 57
(Western Bulldogs by 5 Points)
Vote Chances
Bailey Dale – 26 Disposals (21 Effective), 7 Intercept Possessions, 7 Marks (4 Intercept Marks), 4 Rebound 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 427 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
Caleb Daniel – 29 Disposals (24 Effective and 10 Contested), 8 Intercept Possessions, 7 Marks, 7 Rebound 50s, 10 Ground Ball Gets and 548 Metres Gained
Harry Perryman – 23 Disposals (21 Effective), 6 Marks, 5 Inside 50s, 4 Ground Ball Gets, 14 Tackles and 38 Pressure Acts
Projected Votes
1 Vote (W.Bulldogs) Jack Macrae (6)
31 Disposals (25 Effective and 14 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks, 5 Score Involvements and 13 Ground Ball Gets
2 Votes (W.Bulldogs) Marcus Bontempelli (16)
26 Disposals (22 Effective and 11 Contested), 5 Marks, 6 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles and 23 Pressure Acts
3 Votes (GWS) Josh Kelly (8) ⭐
35 Disposals (29 Effective), 12 Marks, 5 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 4 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles and 600 Metres Gained
Note – This match didn’t get off to a great start, with the Giants chipping the ball around in their back half, and the crowd weren’t happy.
In this clash, the Giants won the mark count, 165-91, but the Bulldogs were too good when the match was up for grabs and won in another low-scoring contest.
Josh Kelly was one of the standouts with efficient use of the football and he played a consistent four quarters of football for the Giants.
Marcus Bontempelli stood up when it mattered with 10 disposals in the final term, and Jack Macrae had more of an impact deep in the match.
Dogs defenders Bailey Dale and Caleb Daniel used the footy well in the win, and Harry Perryman applied a lot of pressure on the Bulldogs midfielders.
A tough match to split the votes, but Josh Kelly had a noticeable impact and Marcus Bontempelli lifted when the game was up for grabs.
Adelaide vs North Melbourne
Adelaide 15.13 103 – North Melbourne 10.14 74
(Adelaide by 29 Points)
Vote Chances
Taylor Walker – 16 Disposals (13 Effective), 7 Marks (3 Marks Inside 50), 9 Score Involvements, 2 Goal Assists and 3 Goals
Darcy Fogarty – 11 Disposals (10 Effective), 7 Marks (4 Marks Inside 50), 7 Score Involvements and 4 Goals
Jy Simpkin – 30 Disposals (23 Effective and 13 Contested), 10 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles, 22 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal Assist
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Adelaide) Rory Laird (15)
25 Disposals (17 Effective), 5 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 476 Metres Gained and 2 Goal Assists
2 Votes (Adelaide) Jordan Dawson (7)
33 Disposals (27 Effective), 6 Intercept Possessions, 9 Marks (4 Intercept Marks and 2 Contested), 6 Inside 50s, 12 Rebound 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 6 One Percenters, 5 Spoils, 830 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
3 Votes (North Melbourne) Luke Davies-Uniacke (8) ⭐⭐
37 Disposals (29 Effective and 15 Contested), 5 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 11 Clearances, 10 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 12 Ground Ball Gets, 21 Pressure Acts, 742 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
Note – The Kangaroos were in this match for most of the game, but the Crows pulled away in the final term and ended up winning by under five goals.
Kangaroos midfielder Luke Davies-Uniacke was the best and most consistent player on the ground with a stack of football and was a big reason the Kangaroos were able to stay in the contest for an extended period.
Crows defender Jordan Dawson used the football well for most of the match and made smart decisions, whilst Rory Laird had some important moments and forward Darcy Fogarty booted 3 second-half goals and 4 goals for the game.
Jy Simpkin was also busy in the middle for the Kangaroos, but Davies-Uniacke will be tough to beat for the top votes, despite the loss.
Gold Coast vs Geelong
Gold Coast 9.5 59 – Geelong 18.11 119
(Geelong by 60 Points)
Vote Chances
Touk Miller – 36 Disposals (22 Effective and 14 Contested), 8 Marks, 5 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 6 Rebound 50s, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 22 Pressure Acts and 734 Metres Gained
Max Holmes – 20 Disposals, 8 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks (3 Intercept Marks), 6 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 3 One Percenters, 545 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 2 Goals
Brandon Parfitt – 28 Disposals (10 Contested), 4 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 17 Pressure Acts and 2 Goals
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Geelong) Cam Guthrie (14)
30 Disposals (24 Effective and 10 Contested), 7 Marks, 6 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 3 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 424 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
2 Votes (Geelong) Jeremy Cameron (18)
21 Disposals (14 Effective), 8 Marks (4 Marks Inside 50 and 3 Contested), 5 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 474 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 3 Goals
3 Votes (Geelong) Mark Blicavs (8) ⭐⭐
27 Disposals (20 Effective and 13 Contested), 6 Marks, 5 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 17 Pressure Acts and 2 Goals
Note – The Cats won this match comfortably against the Suns and have a couple of leading contenders for the top votes.
Mark Blicavs had a busy day, and a noticeable impact in the win, whilst Jeremy Cameron was dangerous on the offensive half for the Cats and booted 3 goals but sat out most of the fourth term due to injury.
Cam Guthrie racked up plenty of the football for the Cats, and Touk Miller was again the best player for the Suns, but Blicavs or Cameron had the most significant impact in the match and genuine chances for the top votes.
Melbourne vs Carlton
Melbourne 11.13 79 – Carlton 10.14 74
(Melbourne by 5 Points)
Vote Chances
Max Gawn – 20 Disposals (14 Contested), 7 Marks (5 Contested and 2 Marks Inside 50), 4 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 13 Hit-outs to advantage, 340 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
Patrick Cripps – 26 Disposals (19 Effective and 16 Contested), 4 Marks, 10 Clearances, 6 Score Involvements, 12 Tackles (4 Tackles Inside 50), 40 Pressure Acts and 12 Ground Ball Gets
Sam Docherty – 28 Disposals (12 Contested), 4 Intercept Possessions, 4 Marks, 6 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 10 Tackles, 26 Pressure Acts and 473 Metres Gained
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Melbourne) Clayton Oliver (26)
29 Disposals (20 Effective and 19 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 6 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 13 Ground Ball Gets, 9 Tackles, 41 Pressure Acts, 418 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
2 Votes (Melbourne) Angus Brayshaw (7)
38 Disposals (19 Contested), 4 Intercept Possessions, 12 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 4 Rebound 50s, 13 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 16 Pressure Acts and 572 Metres Gained
3 Votes (Melbourne) Jake Melksham (3) ⭐
15 Disposals, 7 Marks (5 Marks Inside 50 and 4 Contested), 5 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 4 Ground Ball Gets, 384 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 4 Goals
Note – A classic finish at the MCG on a Saturday Night, and it was demons small forward Kysaiah Pickett that kicked the winning goal in the closing stages.
This could be a tough match to split the votes with star players from both sides making significant contributions, but Jake Melksham kicked a goal in every quarter and was an X-Factor. Melksham took 4 contested marks and marked the footy in dangerous positions to be the most damaging forward on the ground in a lower-scoring match.
Angus Brayshaw and Clayton Oliver were two of the better midfielders on the ground and made the most of Max Gawn winning the ruck battle.
Patrick Cripps and Sam Docherty tried hard all night, but the Demons got the win, and a lesser-known player is a decent shot at getting the top votes.
Fremantle vs West Coast
Fremantle 9.17 71 – West Coast 7.5 47
(Fremantle by 24 Points)
Vote Chances
Will Brodie – 28 Disposals (21 Effective and 15 Contested), 5 Marks, 7 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 4 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets and 5 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50)
Blake Acres – 29 Disposals (23 Effective), 4 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks, 4 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 567 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
Michael Walters – 19 Disposals (14 Effective), 8 Marks, 4 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 4 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 1 Goal Assist and 2 Goals
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Fremantle) David Mundy (3)
25 Disposals (16 Effective and 12 Contested), 8 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 4 One Percenters, 4 Tackles and 377 Metres Gained
2 Votes (West Coast) Tom Barrass (5)
20 Disposals (19 Effective), 14 Intercept Possessions, 12 Marks (9 Intercept Marks and 3 Contested), 5 Rebound 50s, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 5 One Percenters and 3 Spoils
3 Votes (Fremantle) Sean Darcy (9) ⭐⭐⭐
16 Disposals, 4 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks (2 Intercept Marks, 2 Contested and 2 Marks Inside 50), 4 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 20 Hit-outs to advantage, 3 One Percenters, 6 Tackles, 368 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
Note – It was a wet night in Perth, and the Eagles tested the Dockers for an extended period, but the Dockers got it together in the second half and won the match.
Dockers ruckman Sean Darcy won the Glendinning-Allan Medal, racking up a massive 20 hit-outs to advantage, and gave his mids first use of the footy on many occasions.
Eagles defender Tom Barrass was solid down back with a stack of intercept possessions and intercept marks. He had a busy night on the defensive half and is a decent chance to poll votes despite the loss.
Dockers veterans David Mundy and Michael Walters stood up deep in the match, and both Will Brodie and Blake Acres had solid games, but Darcy will be tough to beat for the top votes.
Richmond vs Hawthorn
Richmond 20.8 128 – Hawthorn 9.13 67
(Richmond by 61 Points)
Vote Chances
Daniel Rioli – 25 Disposals (20 Effective), 5 Intercept Possessions, 5 Rebound 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 3 One Percenters and 357 Metres Gained
Maurice Rioli – 12 Disposals, 3 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 9 Score Involvements, 4 Tackles, 20 Pressure Acts, 337 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 2 Goals
Jayden Short – 26 Disposals (20 Effective), 7 Marks, 4 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 5 Rebound 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 16 Pressure Acts, 535 Metres Gained and 2 Goal Assists
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Richmond) Trent Cotchin (4)
30 Disposals (17 Contested), 4 Marks, 8 Clearances, 9 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 401 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
2 Votes (Richmond) Dion Prestia (15)
30 Disposals (21 Effective and 16 Contested), 11 Clearances, 7 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 3 One Percenters, 4 Tackles, 20 Pressure Acts, 436 Metres Gained and 2 Goals
3 Votes (Richmond) Tom Lynch (11) ⭐⭐⭐
18 Disposals (15 Effective and 10 Contested), 12 Marks (9 Marks Inside 50 and 7 Contested), 5 Inside 50s, 13 Score Involvements, 393 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 8 Goals
Note – The Tigers had no issues taking care of the Hawks, and it was forward Tom Lynch that stood out and booted 8 goals.
Lynch was a handful for the Hawks defenders, and he racked up a massive 9 marks inside the forward fifty and 7 contested marks to be the leading contender for the top votes.
Tigers midfielders Dion Prestia and Trent Cotchin made significant contributions in the middle of the ground, whilst Maurice Rioli was up and about, applying a lot of defensive forward pressure on the opposition in dangerous areas.
The Tigers won the match comfortably, and Tom Lynch with be tough to beat for the top votes.
Sydney vs Collingwood
Sydney 11.11 77 – Collingwood 7.8 50
(Sydney by 27 Points)
Vote Chances
Luke Parker – 26 Disposals (16 Effective and 13 Contested), 7 Marks, 8 Clearances, 5 Score Involvements, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 8 Tackles and 22 Pressure Acts
Chad Warner – 25 Disposals (12 Contested), 5 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 5 Rebound 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 26 Pressure Acts, 555 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
Scott Pendlebury – 26 Disposals (15 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 8 Clearances, 5 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 3 One Percenters, 4 Tackles, 16 Pressure Acts, 480 Metres Gained and 2 Goal Assists
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Sydney) James Rowbottom (1)
24 Disposals (13 Contested), 7 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 4 Rebound 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 8 Tackles, 497 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
2 Votes (Collingwood) Josh Daicos (6)
25 Disposals (15 Effective and 13 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 7 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 489 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
3 Votes (Sydney) Callum Mills (18) ⭐⭐
29 Disposals (20 Effective and 13 Contested), 4 Intercept Possessions, 9 Marks, 6 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles (3 Tackles Inside 50), 19 Pressure Acts and 535 Metres Gained
Note – The Swans led from start to finish, but were tested at times and managed to win the match by a comfortable margin.
Callum Mills was one of the standouts with a stack of footy and a big finish to the match to be a leading contender for the top votes.
Josh Daicos doesn’t win as much of the footy as some of the game’s elite ball winners, but things happen when he does get the footy, and he had some impressive moments despite the loss.
James Rowbottom, Luke Parker and Chad Warner played decent games, and Scott Pendlebury was another magpie that stood up, but Callum Mills will be tough to beat for the top votes.
Essendon vs Port Adelaide
Essendon 9.8 62 – Port Adelaide 23.8 146
(Port Adelaide by 84 Points)
Vote Chances
Dan Houston – 32 Disposals (22 Effective and 12 Contested), 13 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 7 Rebound 50s, 4 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 3 One Percenters, 5 Tackles, 16 Pressure Acts, 572 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
Sam Powell-Pepper – 22 Disposals (16 Effective), 4 Marks, 5 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 1 Goal Assist and 4 Goals
Todd Marshall – 13 Disposals (12 Effective), 8 Marks (4 Marks Inside 50 and 3 Contested), 5 Inside 50s, 11 Score Involvements, 6 One Percenters, 5 Spoils, 3 Goal Assists and 2 Goals
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Port Adelaide) Zak Butters (1)
25 Disposals (19 Effective and 11 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 6 Clearances, 10 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 1 Goal Assist and 3 Goals
2 Votes (Port Adelaide) Ollie Wines (14)
31 Disposals (24 Effective and 17 Contested), 9 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 5 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 4 Rebound 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 14 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 16 Pressure Acts, 538 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
3 Votes (Port Adelaide) Jeremy Finlayson (4) ⭐
25 Disposals (20 Effective), 4 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 4 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 4 Rebound 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 5 One Percenters, 3 Spoils, 4 Tackles, 616 Metres Gained, 2 Goal Assists and 2 Goals
Note – The Power played a side that looked out of sorts and won the game by a significant margin.
Jeremy Finlayson didn’t win a lot of hit-outs, but he covered the ground well, racked up plenty of the football and was willing to attack with the footy. Still, the top votes are never a certainty when a midfielder boots three goals and last year’s Brownlow Medalist has a good match.
Ollie Wines and Zak Butters had big games in the middle of the ground, whilst Sam Powell-Pepper found the footy in dangerous positions and booted 4 goals.
Power defender Dan Houston had a solid match down back, but Finlayson may be the leading contender for the top votes.
Leaderboard – Round 22
Top 10
| Name | Projected Votes |
|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | 30 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | 27 |
| Clayton Oliver | 26 |
| Touk Miller | 23 |
| Patrick Cripps | 21 |
| Christian Petracca | 21 |
| Jeremy Cameron | 18 |
| Callum Mills | 18 |
| Shai Bolton | 17 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | 16 |
To see all the votes for previous rounds, click the link Brownlow Medal Predictor 2022 on the menu bar. You can also use the TAGS at the bottom of this post or click the links below.
Best of luck picking a winner, and always remember to Gamble Responsibly.