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Brownlow Medal Predictor, Round 22 2021
We have one round left in the 2021 AFL Season, and the final eight looks all but set, with the Giants and Bombers knowing they have to win their final match to secure a finals spot.
The final round will end with a top of the table clash between the Cats and the Demons, whilst the Dogs will take on the Power and try and secure a top-four position.
The 2021 Brownlow Medal Count is shaping up as a close one, with none of the contenders a certainty for best on ground honours in Round 22. There could still be a number of players with a chance to take home the Brownlow Medal with one round left.
Here is the Brownlow Medal Predictor for Round 22 of the 2021 AFL Season.
Be sure to check back each week of the 2021 AFL Season for an in-depth look at some of the better players for each round and who should get the votes.
Round by Round analysis of the Brownlow Medal Count. Who gets the Brownlow Votes, and who has the best chance to become the Brownlow Medal Winner on Brownlow Medal Night.
This Brownlow Medal Tracker features the players that have the best chance of getting the votes and three other players that are considered a vote chance.
A Star ⭐ rating is used to show the confidence level of each three-vote prediction.
⭐ = Tough Game to Pick
⭐⭐ = A Decent Chance
⭐⭐⭐ = Should get the Three Votes
GWS vs Richmond
GWS 16.10 106 – Richmond 10.7 67
(GWS by 39 Points)
The Friday Night fixture was shaping up as being one of the matches of the round, but it wasn’t to be as the Giants continued their impressive finish to the season and made easy work of the Tigers.
Tim Taranto was on fire in the first half and booted four goals, which helped the Giants establish a match-winning halftime lead.
Josh Kelly was influential in the middle of the ground all evening and was well supported by Jacob Hopper and Callan Ward. Defenders Isaac Cumming and Nick Haynes were solid down back and set the tone early in the match.
For the Tigers, Liam Baker and Trent Cotchin tried hard all evening, whilst Jayden Short was solid down back, and Daniel Rioli impressed with the footy.
Vote Chances
Isaac Cumming – 24 Disposals (19 Effective), 7 Intercept Possessions, 9 Marks (6 Intercept Marks), 5 Inside 50s, 6 Rebound 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 508 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
Lachie Whitfield – 21 Disposals (14 Effective), 4 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 5 Inside 50s, 446 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
Trent Cotchin – 31 Disposals (15 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks, 8 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements and 11 Ground Ball Gets
Projected Votes
1 Vote (GWS) Jacob Hopper (7)
25 Disposals (21 Effective and 10 Contested), 7 Marks, 8 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
2 Votes (GWS) Tim Taranto (12)
18 Disposals, 3 Marks (2 Contested and 2 Marks Inside 50), 5 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 1 Goal Assist and 4 Goals
3 Votes (GWS) Josh Kelly (17) ⭐⭐
32 Disposals (23 Effective and 11 Contested), 5 Marks, 5 Inside 50s, 6 Rebound 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 11 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 38 Pressure Acts and 500 Metres Gained
Note – The Giants came to play in this match, and it was a massive four-goal first half from Tim Taranto that set the tone. He didn’t have as big an impact in the second half, but he may still get the maximum votes. Josh Kelly will be the front runner with a quality performance and lots of pressure on the opposition.
Hawthorn vs Western Bulldogs
Hawthorn 9.10 64 – Western Bulldogs 5.7 37
(Hawthorn by 27 Points)
The Hawks and the Bulldogs travelled to Tasmania, and it was the Hawks who surprised and were too good for a Bulldogs side that is beginning to show some vulnerabilities.
Daniel Howe racked up a lot of the football on a wing throughout the match, whilst the creativity of Chad Wingard was on show throughout the win.
Tom Mitchell got better as the match wore on, whilst Jacob Koschitzke had an impact up forward, and Tim O’Brien was solid on the back half.
For the Dogs, Jack Macrae, Tom Liberatore and Marcus Bontempelli all had decent matches, but they will need to find some others to contribute if they are to see deep September action.
Vote Chances
Tim O’Brien – 24 Disposals (20 Effective and 11 Contested), 14 Intercept Possessions, 10 Marks (6 Intercept Marks and 3 Contested), 4 Rebound 50s, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 6 One Percenters and 6 Spoils
Tom Liberatore – 26 Disposals (20 Effective and 16 Contested), 11 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 6 Rebound 50s, 13 Ground Ball Gets, 8 Tackles, 22 Pressure Acts and 475 Metres Gained
Jack Macrae – 32 Disposals (23 Effective and 10 Contested), 5 Marks, 6 Clearances, 6 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 8 Tackles, 24 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal Assist
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Hawthorn) Tom Mitchell (26)
27 Disposals (10 Contested), 6 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 28 Pressure Acts, 462 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
2 Votes (Hawthorn) Chad Wingard (5)
26 Disposals (18 Effective and 13 Contested), 4 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 20 Pressure Acts, 2 Goal Assists and 1 Goal
3 Votes (Hawthorn) Daniel Howe (3) ⭐
34 Disposals (22 Effective and 12 Contested), 9 Marks, 8 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 18 Pressure Acts, 769 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
Note – Howe found himself alone on a wing in this matchup and made the most of the space with effective ball use and a willingness to move the ball forward. He was the most noticeable player on the ground, but hard to be confident giving the lesser-known players the maximum votes.
Geelong vs St Kilda
Geelong 13.7 85 – St Kilda 11.5 71
(Geelong by 14 Points)
The Saints travelled to Geelong and looked like they may keep their finals hopes alive in the early stages. However, the more experienced Cats players lifted in the second half, and they ended up being too good for a spirited Saints outfit.
Patrick Dangerfield was brilliant in the win, winning a lot of contested ball and taking contested marks.
Sam Menegola and Cam Guthrie were consistent in the middle throughout the win, whilst Jeremy Cameron was dangerous up forward and booted four goals.
For the Saints, Jack Steele was the best player on the ground in the first half, but hardly sited in the final quarter when the match was on the line.
Brad Crouch was again good in the middle of the ground, and Jack Sinclair continues to impress in a defensive role.
Vote Chances
Rhys Stanley – 16 Disposals (15 Effective), 4 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 6 Clearances, 6 Score Involvements, 13 Hit-outs to advantage, 4 One Percenters, 4 Spoils, 5 Tackles and 1 Goal
Jeremy Cameron – 13 Disposals (9 Effective), 7 Marks (3 Contested and 3 Marks Inside 50), 5 Score Involvements, 1 Goal Assist and 4 Goals
Jack Steele – 30 Disposals (22 Effective and 12 Contested), 5 Marks, 8 Clearances, 5 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 29 Pressure Acts and 3 One Percenters
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Geelong) Cam Guthrie (20)
36 Disposals (28 Effective), 9 Marks, 6 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 17 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal Assist
2 Votes (Geelong) Sam Menegola (6)
35 Disposals (26 Effective), 9 Marks (3 Intercept Marks and 2 Marks Inside 50), 6 Inside 50s, 4 Rebound 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 470 Metres Gained, 3 Goal Assists and 1 Goal
Lock of the Week
3 Votes (Geelong) Patrick Dangerfield (10) ⭐⭐⭐
31 Disposals (24 Contested and 22 Effective), 6 Marks (4 Contested), 9 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 14 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 458 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
Note – Dangerfield lifted when the match was up for grabs and stood out with a lot of contested ball and contested marks. He played to his strengths and was a real X-Factor in the closing stages.
Port Adelaide vs Carlton
Port Adelaide 21.14 140 – Carlton 5.15 45
(Port Adelaide by 95 Points)
Carlton got the fast start in Marc Murphy’s final game, but that was it, and the Power took over and ran away winners by a comfortable margin.
Travis Boak was solid in the middle all match, whilst Ollie Wines and Karl Amon were consistent throughout the sizeable win.
Defender Allir Allir was once again influential on the back half and made it tough for the Blues forwards to have any impact.
For the Blues, Sam Walsh tried hard all day, and Matthew Kennedy was pretty good, but it wasn’t a great day for the Navy Blues.
Vote Chances
Allir Allir – 19 Disposals (17 Effective), 14 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks (8 Intercept Marks and 3 Contested), 5 Rebound 50s, 4 Tackles, 4 One Percenters and 3 Spoils
Peter Ladhams – 17 Disposals (13 Effective and 12 Contested), 6 Marks (3 Contested and 2 Marks Inside 50), 8 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 9 Hit-outs to advantage, 4 Tackles and 1 Goal
Conor Rozee – 23 Disposals (18 Effective), 4 Marks, 11 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Port Adelaide) Ollie Wines (26)
31 Disposals (17 Contested), 4 Marks, 5 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles, 22 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal Assist
2 Votes (Port Adelaide) Travis Boak (19)
31 Disposals (15 Contested), 12 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 25 Pressure Acts, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
3 Votes (Port Adelaide) Karl Amon (9) ⭐
30 Disposals, 4 Marks, 7 Clearances, 10 Inside 50s, 11 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 3 One Percenters, 651 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
Note – The match was a blowout after the first term, which made this match a challenging game to split. There are a few chances for the maximum votes, but Karl Amon has a distinctive left foot kick and created many scoring opportunities for the Power. The votes could go a few ways in this one.
Brisbane vs Collingwood
Brisbane 22.10 142 – Collingwood 8.9 57
(Brisbane by 85 Points)
The Lions are beginning to hit top form at the right time of the year and made easy work of the Magpies to keep their final four hopes alive.
Their midfield was on in this clash, with Jarryd Lyons, Dayne Zorko, Lachie Neale and Hugh McCluggage having a significant impact throughout the match.
Charlie Cameron was lively up forward, booting 6 Goals, whilst Joe Daniher and Dan McStay chipped in with 3.
For the Magpies, Jack Crisp and Jordan De Goey were two of their best, but the talented Lions outfit outclassed them.
Vote Chances
Lachie Neale – 31 Disposals, 6 Marks, 8 Score Involvements, 25 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal
Hugh McCluggage – 30 Disposals (20 Effective and 11 Contested), 7 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 6 Clearances, 10 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 23 Pressure Acts, 591 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
Zac Bailey – 27 Disposals (20 Effective), 6 Marks, 11 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 4 One Percenters, 22 Pressure Acts, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Brisbane) Charlie Cameron (3)
12 Disposals (11 Effective), 6 Marks (3 Marks Inside 50), 9 Score Involvements and 6 Goals
2 Votes (Brisbane) Jarryd Lyons (23)
29 Disposals (25 Effective), 6 Marks, 6 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 11 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 9 Tackles, 29 Pressure Acts, 471 Metres Gained, 3 Goal Assists and 1 Goal
3 Votes (Brisbane) Dayne Zorko (17) ⭐
27 Disposals (19 Effective and 11 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks, 6 Clearances, 10 Inside 50s, 11 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 9 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 30 Pressure Acts, 536 Metres Gained and 3 Goal Assists
Note – Another blowout and another tough match to split the votes. Dayne Zorko and Jarryd Lyons were consistent in the win and won a lot of the football, but so did a few of their teammates. A difficult match to split the votes, but Zorko had a significant third term and created many scoring chances in the win.
North Melbourne vs Sydney
North Melbourne 12.5 77 – Sydney 13.13 91
(Sydney by 14 Points)
The Kangaroos and the Swans went at in on a Saturday evening, and despite a spirited effort from the Kangaroos side, the Swans were too good in the end.
Luke Parker continued his impressive second half of the season and was their standout in the middle. George Hewett had a decent match, as did Josh Kennedy, and recycled ruckman Tom Hickey was good in the ruck.
Will Hayward was lively up forward for the Swans and an X-Factor in the closing stages.
For the Kangaroos, Aaron Hall again won a heap of the football, and both Luke Davies-Uniacke and Jy Simpkin had an impact despite the loss.
Vote Chances
George Hewett – 28 Disposals (23 Effective), 5 Marks, 5 Clearances and 7 Ground Ball Gets
Josh Kennedy – 25 Disposals (11 Contested), 7 Clearances, 6 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets and 5 Tackles
Tom Hickey – 18 Disposals, 5 Marks, 4 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 9 Hit-outs to advantage, 475 Metres Gained and 1 Goal Assist
Projected Votes
1 Vote (North Melbourne) Aaron Hall (2)
30 Disposals (21 Effective), 5 Intercept Possessions, 10 Marks, 12 Rebound 50s and 771 Metres Gained
2 Votes (Sydney) Will Hayward (2)
17 Disposals, 11 Marks (5 Marks Inside 50), 4 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 3 Tackles (3 Tackles Inside 50), 20 Pressure Acts and 3 Goals
3 Votes (Sydney) Luke Parker (21) ⭐⭐
25 Disposals (18 Effective and 11 Contested), 6 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 8 Tackles, 21 Pressure Acts, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
Note – This wasn’t the best game of footy to watch, but the Swans came out on top thanks to the impact of some of their senior mids. Parker made smart decisions at the right times and had a noticeable impact throughout the match.
Melbourne vs Adelaide
Melbourne 16.8 104 – Adelaide 9.9 63
(Melbourne by 41 Points)
The Demons hosted the Adelaide Crows at the MCG on a Sunday Afternoon and led most of the match to run out comfortable winners.
Christian Petracca was one of the key contributors when the match was in the balance, but a late four-goal final term from Bayley Fritsch, and seven total goals will make him the favourite for the maximum votes.
Max Gawn controlled the ruck and was well supported by Luke Jackson, whilst Christian Salem had a good day down back, and Ed Langdon racked up plenty of the football.
The Crows were ok in this match, and it was their regular contributors that stood out. Paul Seedsman had the ball on a string in the initial stages, and both Ben Keays and Rory Sloane tried hard all afternoon.
Vote Chances
Max Gawn – 19 Disposals (14 Contested and 14 Effective), 10 Clearances, 6 Ground Ball Gets and 4 Tackles
Christian Salem – 29 Disposals (22 Effective), 7 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 7 Rebound 50s, 6 Ground Ball Gets and 452 Metres Gained
Rory Sloane – 25 Disposals (19 Effective and 15 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 7 Marks, 9 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 9 Tackles and 33 Pressure Acts
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Melbourne) Christian Petracca (29)
23 Disposals (16 Effective), 8 Marks, 6 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 412 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 2 Goals
2 Votes (Adelaide) Paul Seedsman (4)
36 Disposals (28 Effective), 10 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 749 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
3 Votes (Melbourne) Bayley Fritsch (5) ⭐⭐
16 Disposals (13 Effective), 5 Marks (3 Marks Inside 50), 10 Score Involvements and 7 Goals
Note – Most of Fritsch’s goals came when the match was done and dusted, but he was dangerous for most of the day, and seven goals usually is enough for the highest vote honours.
Gold Coast vs Essendon
Gold Coast 4.6 30 Essendon 14.14 98
(Essendon by 68 Points)
The Bombers needed the win to keep their finals hopes alive, and they impressed for an easy victory against the Suns.
Jake Stringer was impressive in the win and dangerous up forward, booting a total of five goals.
Midfielders Darcy Parish and Zach Merrett helped win first use of the football and made the most of some good ruck work from Sam Draper.
The Bombers defence stood up in this one with Nick Hind, Jordan Ridley and Mason Redman all solid down back and a big reason the Suns failed to hit the scoreboard too many times.
The Suns had a bad day, but Brayden Fiorini and Touk Miller tried hard.
Vote Chances
Zach Merrett – 31 Disposals (22 Effective and 10 Contested), 5 Clearances, 5 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets and 21 Pressure Acts
Jordan Ridley – 24 Disposals (19 Effective), 7 Intercept Possessions, 3 Marks (3 Contested), 7 Rebound 50s, 11 One Percenters, 10 Spoils and 500 Metres Gained
Mason Redman – 30 Disposals (26 Effective), 9 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks (3 Intercept Marks), 4 Inside 50s, 6 Rebound 50s, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 3 One Percenters and 583 Metres Gained
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Essendon) Nick Hind (2)
30 Disposals (25 Effective), 12 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks (4 Intercept Marks and 2 Contested), 8 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 409 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 1 Goal
2 Votes (Essendon) Darcy Parish (26)
34 Disposals (27 Effective and 11 Contested), 7 Marks, 6 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 12 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets and 563 Metres Gained
3 Votes (Essendon) Jake Stringer (8) ⭐⭐⭐
19 Disposals (15 Effective and 13 Contested), 4 Marks (4 Marks Inside 50), 4 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 11 Score Involvements, 17 Pressure Acts, 511 Metres Gained, 1 Goal Assist and 5 Goals
Note – Stringer has had a good season, and his five goals and smart decisions will make it challenging for anybody to steal the maximum votes. A fine win from the Bombers and he should get the top votes.
Fremantle vs West Coast
Fremantle 12.7 79 – West Coast 9.10 64
(Fremantle by 15 Points)
Both WA sides were fighting for a finals berth, and perhaps 11 straight losses to the Eagles prior was enough to inspire the Dockers to victory.
Fremantle got the early jump on the Eagles and managed to hold them off for most of the day on the back of an impressive first half from forward Matt Taberner.
Caleb Serong won the Glendinning-Allan Medal for best on ground, and veteran David Mundy was also good in the win.
In the third term, defender Luke Ryan kept the Eagles at bay and was a big reason the Dockers were able to hold off an Eagles comeback. Sean Darcy was good, but found it tough rucking against Nic Naitanui.
For the Eagles, Nic Naitanui held his own in the ruck, whilst Jack Redden and Andrew Gaff racked up the disposals.
Vote Chances
Matt Taberner – 13 Disposals (10 Effective), 7 Marks (4 Contested and 3 Marks Inside 50), 8 Score Involvements, 2 Goal Assists and 3 Goals
Jack Redden – 25 Disposals (19 Effective and 11 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 4 Marks, 5 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 9 Tackles, 27 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal Assist
Andrew Gaff – 32 Disposals (24 Effective and 13 Contested), 9 Marks, 6 Score Involvements and 10 Ground Ball Gets
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Fremantle) David Mundy (17)
28 Disposals (22 Effective and 16 Contested), 7 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 13 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 18 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal
2 Votes (Fremantle) Luke Ryan (3)
26 Disposals (19 Effective), 8 Intercept Possessions, 10 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 11 Rebound 50s, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 5 One Percenters, 5 Spoils and 664 Metres Gained
3 Votes (Fremantle) Caleb Serong (4) ⭐⭐⭐
31 Disposals (21 Effective and 10 Contested), 6 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 26 Pressure Acts, 1 Goal Assist and 2 Goals
Note – Serong was brilliant in the middle in this clash and won the Medal for best afield. Sealed the match with a Goal of the Year Contender and will be the favourite for maximum vote honours.
Leaderboard – Round 22
Top 10
| Name | Projected Votes |
|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | 29 |
| Christian Petracca | 29 |
| Clayton Oliver | 28 |
| Jack Steele | 28 |
| Darcy Parish | 26 |
| Tom Mitchell | 26 |
| Ollie Wines | 26 |
| Sam Walsh | 25 |
| Jack Macrae | 25 |
| Jarryd Lyons | 23 |
To see the projected votes from previous rounds, click the Brownlow Medal Predictor 2021 on the menu bar. You can also click the TAGS at the bottom of this post or use the links below.
Cheers and always Gamble Responsibly.