Brownlow Medal Predictor, Round 5 Leader 2021
Round 5 of the 2021 AFL Season is done and dusted, and we have a couple of unlikely sides both still undefeated.
The Western Bulldogs and the Melbourne Demons are playing good football, and both have talented players in the middle of the ground. One of those players is seasoned vote-getter Jack Macrae, who is the current projected Round 5 Leader of the 2021 Brownlow Medal Predictor.
Here is the Brownlow Medal Predictor for Round 5 of the 2021 AFL Season.
Be sure to check back each week of the 2021 AFL Season for an in-depth look at some of the better players for each round and who should get the votes.
Round by Round analysis of the Brownlow Medal Count. Who gets the Brownlow Votes, and who has the best chance to become the Brownlow Medal Winner on Brownlow Medal Night.
This Brownlow Medal Tracker features the players that have the best chance of getting the votes and three other players that are considered a vote chance in each game.
A Star ⭐ rating is used to show the confidence level of each three-vote prediction.
⭐ = Tough Game to Pick
⭐⭐ = A Decent Chance
⭐⭐⭐ = Should get the Three Votes
St Kilda vs Richmond
St Kilda 7.6 48 – Richmond 20.14 134
(Richmond by 86 Points)
The Saints came into this match with expectations after a comeback win against the Eagles in Round 4, and they failed to back it up. The reigning Premiers dominated them in every area and made it tough for the Saints to hit the scoreboard.
Jack Riewoldt was a real target up forward for the Tigers and booted 5 Goals, whilst Tom Lynch kicked 3 and midfielder Jack Graham also booted 3.
Shane Edwards, Shai Bolton and Dustin Martin stepped up in the midfield, and Toby Nankervis dominated the ruck.
Not many shining lights for the Saints, but Jack Steele and Hunter Clark won a lot of the footy.
Vote Chances
Dustin Martin – 34 Disposals (12 Contested), 5 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 562 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
Toby Nankervis – 22 Disposals (14 Contested), 6 Clearances, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 13 Hit-outs to advantage and 6 Tackles
Jack Graham – 17 Disposals (13 Effective), 4 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 12 Tackles, 29 Pressure Acts and 3 Goals
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Richmond) Shai Bolton (1)
29 Disposals (22 Effective and 10 Contested), 8 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements and 1 Goal
2 Votes (Richmond) Shane Edwards (2)
29 Disposals (22 Effective and 12 Contested), 7 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 521 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
3 Votes (Richmond) Jack Riewoldt (3) ⭐
17 Disposals, 8 Marks (7 Marks Inside 50), 4 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements and 5 Goals
Note – The Tigers won the match easily and had quite a few significant contributors. This was a tough match to split the votes, but Jack Riewoldt presented well up forward all evening and took a lot of marks inside the forward 50.
West Coast vs Collingwood
West Coast 16.7 103 – Collingwood 11.10 76
(West Coast by 27 Points)
Friday Night footy headed out West, and the Eagles were too good for the Magpies and controlled the football for the majority of the contest.
Collingwood got off to the fast start on the back of an impressive first half from Brodie Grundy, but couldn’t back it up after half-time.
This was a difficult game to split the votes, with the Eagles electing to chip the ball around a lot in the back-half, which meant a lot of Possessions for Liam Duggan and Alex Witherden.
Jack Redden was probably the best player on the ground when it mattered and was well supported by Andrew Gaff, Tim Kelly and an explosive 3 goal third term from Dom Sheed.
Eagles big forwards Jack Darling and Oscar Allen also had an impact and booted five goals each.
Vote Chances
Oscar Allen – 13 Disposals (11 Effective), 6 Marks (5 Inside 50 and 4 Contested), 9 Score Involvements and 5 Goals
Andrew Gaff – 38 Disposals (27 Effective and 12 Contested), 10 Marks, 5 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, and 10 Ground Ball Gets
Liam Duggan – 36 Disposals (30 Effective), 7 Intercept Possessions, 13 Marks, 6 Rebound 50s, 7 Ground Ball Gets and 751 Metres Gained
Projected Votes
1 Vote (West Coast) Jack Darling (1)
15 Disposals (12 Effective and 12 Contested), 4 Marks (2 Contested), 8 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets and 5 Goals
2 Votes (West Coast) Dom Sheed (5)
28 Disposals (21 Effective), 5 Marks, 7 Clearances, 6 Score Involvements and 3 Goals
3 Votes (West Coast) Jack Redden (3) ⭐⭐
37 Disposals (27 Effective and 14 Contested), 10 Marks, 6 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets and 514 Metres Gained
Note – The Eagles set up the win in the second term, and it was the two Jacks, Darling and Redden, that had massive quarters. Darling went a little quiet in the second half, whilst Redden was consistent in the middle and played his best game of the season.
Western Bulldogs vs Gold Coast
Western Bulldogs 17.16 118 – Gold Coast 8.8 56
(Western Bulldogs by 62 Points)
The Bulldogs got off to a fast start against the Suns and never looked back. They won comfortably and were well served by their elite midfield.
Josh Dunkley and Marcus Bontempelli were brilliant all day and were well supported by Jack Macrae and Adam Treloar. Defenders Bailey Dale and Alex Keath also had a significant impact on the result.
The Suns were disappointing, but Jack Lukosius was probably their best player in the loss.
Vote Chances
Alex Keath – 20 Disposals (19 Effective), 12 Intercept Possessions, 9 Marks (4 Intercept Marks), 8 One Percenters and 7 Spoils
Adam Treloar – 26 Disposals (20 Effective), 5 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements and 2 Goals
Bailey Dale – 27 Disposals, (25 Effective), 9 Marks (3 Intercept Marks), 9 Rebound 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 6 One Percenters and 666 Metres Gained
Projected Votes
1 Vote (W.Bulldogs) Jack Macrae (9)
35 Disposals (31 Effective and 15 Contested), 7 Clearances, 8 Score Involvements, 3 Goal Assists, and 10 Ground Ball Gets
2 Votes (W.Bulldogs) Marcus Bontempelli (5)
33 Disposals (10 Contested), 5 Clearances, 11 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 798 Metres Gained and 3 Goals
3 Votes (W.Bulldogs) Josh Dunkley (4) ⭐⭐
38 Disposals (17 Contested), 6 Marks, 7 Clearances, 8 Score Involvements, 12 Ground Ball Gets, 8 Tackles and 2 Goals
Note – The Dogs made easy work of the Suns, and Josh Dunkley made a very noticeable contribution. The flashiness of Marcus Bontempelli was also on show, so it was tough to split the two, but Dunkley gets the nod with a massive first-half.
Sydney vs GWS
Sydney 10.9 69 – GWS 9.17 71
(GWS by 2 Points)
The Swans hosted the Giants and were pipped in the closing stages by a couple of points. The Giants never gave up and trailed for most of the contest, but lifted in the last quarter to pinch the match.
Josh Kelly was a clear X-Factor, and Shane Mumford made the most of Swans ruckman Tom Hickey leaving the game injured. Toby Greene was dangerous up forward, and both Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper were important in the middle of the ground.
For the Swans, Lance Franklin won the medal for best on ground with 5 Goals, and Will Hayward played one of his best games on the forward-half.
Vote Chances
Jacob Hopper – 26 Disposals (19 Effective and 11 Contested), 6 Clearances, 8 Score Involvements, and 7 Ground Ball Gets
Toby Greene – 18 Disposals (12 Contested), 4 Marks (3 Contested and 3 Marks Inside 50), 11 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets and 1 Goal
Will Hayward – 18 Disposals, 6 Marks (2 Contested and 2 Marks Inside 50), 8 Score Involvements and 3 Goals
Projected Votes
1 Vote (GWS) Shane Mumford (1)
15 Disposals (13 Effective and 12 Contested), 8 Clearances, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 8 Hit-outs to advantage and 6 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50)
2 Votes (GWS) Josh Kelly (2)
26 Disposals, 4 Marks, 5 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 474 Metres Gained, 26 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal
3 Votes (Sydney) Lance Franklin (3) ⭐⭐
14 Disposals (12 Effective), 8 Marks (5 Contested and 3 Marks Inside 50), 4 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 429 Metres Gained and 5 Goals
Note – Buddy won the Brett Kirk Medal, but the Swans lost the match, and Josh Kelly was important for the Giants in the closing stages. Will the medal be enough to get the maximum votes in the Battle of the Bridge? Franklin gets the nod with his unique ability to hit the scoreboard.
Carlton vs Port Adelaide
Carlton 9.14 68 – Port Adelaide 15.6 96
(Port Adelaide by 28 Points)
The Blues hosted the Power at the MCG, but were simply outclassed in this clash.
Ollie Wines continued his impressive form and was well supported by Karl Amon and Travis Boak. Defenders Darcy Byrne-Jones and Allir Allir were also solid down back all evening.
For the Blues, Sam Walsh is a contender for best on ground, Patrick Cripps tried hard all evening, and Sam Docherty was good down back.
Vote Chances
Karl Amon – 28 Disposals (22 Effective), 8 Marks, 6 Rebound 50s, 647 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
Travis Boak – 29 Disposals (22 Effective and 17 Contested), 4 Clearances, 7 Score Involvements, and 11 Ground Ball Gets
Allir Allir – 17 Disposals (16 Effective), 10 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks (3 Intercept Marks), 6 Rebound 50s, 8 One Percenters and 6 Spoils
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Port Adelaide) Darcy Byrne-Jones (1)
24 Disposals (18 Effective), 6 Intercept Possessions, 9 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 23 Pressure Acts, 6 One Percenters and 459 Metres Gained
2 Votes (Carlton) Sam Walsh (3)
29 Disposals (24 Effective and 13 Contested), 5 Marks, 8 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 32 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal
3 Votes (Port Adelaide) Ollie Wines (5) ⭐⭐
32 Disposals (14 Contested), 5 Marks, 7 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 9 Ground Ball Gets and 21 Pressure Acts
Note – The odds were pretty even for this match approaching the opening bounce, and the Power proved too talented. Ollie Wines was again influential in the middle and will be the favourite for the 3 Votes, although the Power defenders had a good night.
Brisbane vs Essendon
Brisbane 15.12 102 – Essendon 6.9 45
(Brisbane by 57 Points)
It was a wet match in Brisbane, and the Lions are beginning to show some form after a sizeable win against the Bombers.
Lachie Neale was back to his 2020 Brownlow Medal-winning form and a clear best on ground.
He was well supported by Jarryd Lyons and Hugh McCluggage, whilst Daniel Rich kept the ball moving forward from the Lions defence. Joe Daniher had a career-high for disposals, and Lincoln McCarthy was lively all evening up forward.
The usual suspects were the best for the Bombers, but it is unlikely Andrew McGrath or Zach Merrett will poll in this match.
Vote Chances
Daniel Rich – 31 Disposals, 9 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks (3 Intercept Marks), 8 Inside 50s, 7 Rebound 50s, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Spoils and 940 Metres Gained
Joe Daniher – 25 Disposals (18 Effective and 11 Contested), 9 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks (2 Contested), 3 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 561 Metres Gained and 2 Goals
Lincoln McCarthy – 20 Disposals (14 Effective and 13 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 12 Ground Ball Gets, 11 Tackles (4 Tackles Inside 50), 22 Pressure Acts and 2 Goals
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Brisbane) Hugh McCluggage (2)
32 Disposals, 6 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks, 5 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 27 Pressure Acts, 441 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
2 Votes (Brisbane) Jarryd Lyons (5)
35 Disposals (21 Contested), 9 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks, 9 Clearances, 15 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles, 25 Pressure Acts and 419 Metres Gained
3 Votes (Brisbane) Lachie Neale (3) ⭐⭐⭐
37 Disposals (27 Effective and 16 Contested), 7 Intercept Possessions, 7 Marks, 8 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 12 Ground Ball Gets and 2 Goals
Note – Neale has struggled this season with an injury, but this match was similar to the many that netted him the 2021 Brownlow Medal. A brilliant performance in the middle of the ground and the favourite for best on ground honours.
Adelaide vs Fremantle
Adelaide 11.6 72 – Fremantle 12.12 84
(Fremantle by 12 Points)
The Crows hosted the Dockers in a close match, but a veteran Docker proved the difference in the closing stages.
David Mundy is having a fine season and had a huge impact when the game mattered.
Andrew Brayshaw was also influential in the middle of the ground and was well supported by Nat Fyfe.
Other Dockers that stood up were Luke Ryan, Sean Darcy and James Aish. Matt Taberner also hit the scoreboard with 4 Goals.
The Crows were in the match all day, and their main contributors were Rory Laird, Paul Seedsman and Lachlan Sholl.
Vote Chances
Nat Fyfe – 24 Disposals (17 Effective and 16 Contested), 6 Clearances, 8 Score Involvements, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 9 Tackles and 31 Pressure Acts
Rory Laird – 29 Disposals (15 Contested), 7 Clearances, 9 Ground Ball Gets and 7 Tackles
Paul Seedsman – 28 Disposals (24 Effective), 8 Marks, 5 Clearances, 7 Rebound 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 459 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Fremantle) Luke Ryan (1)
24 Disposals (20 Effective), 12 Intercept Possessions, 10 Marks (6 Intercept Marks), 11 Rebound 50s and 572 Metres Gained
2 Votes (Fremantle) Andrew Brayshaw (4)
33 Disposals (24 Effective and 17 Contested), 7 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 13 Ground Ball Gets and 515 Metres Gained
3 Votes (Fremantle) David Mundy (7) ⭐⭐
28 Disposals (24 Effective and 13 Contested), 6 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 8 Tackles, 24 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal
Note – A close game of footy, and the veteran Docker continues his excellent 2021 form. Andrew Brayshaw and defender Luke Ryan also had big games, but Mundy stood out with elite use of the football and an important goal when the match was on the line.
Hawthorn vs Melbourne
Hawthorn 8.6 54 – Melbourne 15.14 104
(Melbourne by 50 Points)
The Demons are undefeated after yet another win and made easy work of the Hawks in the second-half.
On the back of a brilliant Game from Max Gawn in the ruck, Melbourne was able to win the football out of the middle and consistently get the ball moving forward.
Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca were again influential in the middle of the ground, and Christian Salem and Jake Lever were solid in defence.
For the Hawks, Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O’Meara won a lot of the football, but were no match for the in-form Demons.
Vote Chances
Christian Salem – 30 Disposals (22 Effective), 8 Intercept Possessions, 7 Marks, 5 Rebound 50s, 6 Score Involvements and 499 Metres Gained
Tom McDonald – 22 Disposals, 10 Marks (2 Contested), 11 Score Involvements, 3 Goal Assists, 421 Metres Gained and 2 Goals
Jaeger O’Meara – 27 Disposals (21 Effective and 14 Contested), 7 Marks, 9 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 5 Rebound 50s, 10 Ground Ball Gets and 6 Tackles
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Melbourne) Christian Petracca (7)
23 Disposals (11 Contested), 5 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 7 Inside 50s, 12 Score Involvements, 2 Goals Assists, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 446 Metres Gained and 2 Goals
2 Votes (Melbourne) Clayton Oliver (8)
30 Disposals (18 Contested), 7 Marks (2 Contested), 7 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 8 Tackles, 26 Pressure Acts and 407 Metres Gained
Lock of the Week
3 Votes (Melbourne) Max Gawn (6) ⭐⭐⭐
26 Disposals (19 Contested), 9 Intercept Possessions, 10 Marks (8 Contested), 5 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 9 Hit-outs to advantage, 451 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
Note – Gawn gets the lock of the week and probably played his best game of the year with 8 Contested Marks. The majority of his possessions were contested, and he won the ruck battle easily to help set up another Dees win.
Geelong vs North Melbourne
Geelong 10.17 77 – North Melbourne 7.5 47
(Geelong by 30 Points)
The Kangaroos hung around for three quarters in this match on the back of solid performances from experienced pair Ben Cunnington and Jack Ziebell, but the Cats were too strong.
Brandon Parfitt was the standout for the Cats in the middle, and Tom Stewart was solid down back.
Sam Menegola, Mitch Duncan and Mark Blicavs also had an impact, but don’t be surprised if one of the two experienced Roos poll a vote in this match.
Vote Chances
Mitch Duncan – 27 Disposals (23 Effective), 7 Marks, 8 Inside 50s, 11 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets and 466 Metres Gained
Jack Ziebell – 38 Disposals (30 Effective), 7 Intercept Possessions, 9 Marks, 18 Rebound 50s and 963 Metres Gained
Ben Cunnington – 29 Disposals (15 Contested), 5 Marks, 7 Clearances, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 472 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Geelong) Sam Menegola (1)
28 Disposals (23 Effective and 11 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks, 5 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 3 Spoils and 2 Goals
2 Votes (Geelong) Tom Stewart (2)
30 Disposals (26 Effective), 14 Intercept Possessions, 11 Marks (6 Intercept Marks), 6 Rebound 50s, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 5 One Percenters, 4 Spoils and 573 Metres Gained
3 Votes (Geelong) Brandon Parfitt (3) ⭐⭐
34 Disposals (26 Effective and 12 Contested), 8 Clearances, 6 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets and 7 Tackles
Note – Not the usual Cat to dominate, but Parfitt was outstanding in the middle of the ground and won a lot of the football. Tom Stewart was also rock solid down back, but Parfitt’s impact in the middle helped the Cats pull away.
Leaderboard – Round 5
Top 10
| Name | Projected Votes |
|---|---|
| Jack Macrae | 9 |
| Clayton Oliver | 8 |
| Taylor Walker | 7 |
| David Mundy | 7 |
| Christian Petracca | 7 |
| Tom Mitchell | 6 |
| Max Gawn | 6 |
| Travis Boak | 6 |
| Dustin Martin | 6 |
| Jarryd Lyons | 5 |
| Cam Guthrie | 5 |
| Toby Greene | 5 |
| Ollie Wines | 5 |
| Callum Mills | 5 |
| Dom Sheed | 5 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | 5 |
To see the projected votes for previous rounds in 2021, click the links on the bottom of this post, find them on the menu bar or use the TAGS at the bottom.
Cheers and always gamble responsibly
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