Projected Brownlow Votes, Round 4 2021

Brownlow Medal Predictor, Round 4 2021
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Brownlow Medal Predictor, Round 4 2021

Round 4 of the 2021 AFL Season is done and dusted, and we are beginning to see which sides may be the contenders.

The Western Bulldogs look very good in the middle of the ground, and that is helping them put a lot of scoreboard pressure on.

Will it be the year of the Melbourne Demons after their impressive win over the experienced Cats side?

The week’s upset came from the Saints, who were down and out at half time against the Eagles.

The Eagles seemed like they put the cue in the rack at Half-time after having a 5 Goal lead, and the Saints came out in the second half with enormous pressure around the football. It was enough to get their second win of the season.

Here is the Brownlow Medal Predictor for Round 4 of the 2021 AFL Season.

Be sure to check back each week of the 2021 AFL Season for an in-depth look at some of the better players for each round and who should get the votes.

Round by Round analysis of the Brownlow Medal Count. Who gets the Brownlow Votes, and who has the best chance to become the Brownlow Medal Winner on Brownlow Medal Night.

This Brownlow Medal Tracker features the players that have the best chance of getting the votes and three other players that are considered a vote chance in each match.

A Star ⭐ rating is used to show the confidence level of each three-vote prediction.

= Tough Game to Pick

⭐⭐ = A Decent Chance

⭐⭐⭐ = Should get the 3 Votes


Brownlow Medal Predictor, Round 4 2021

Sydney vs Essendon

Sydney 11.17 83 – Essendon 12.8 80

(Sydney by 3 Points)

Thursday Night Football produced a thriller with the Swans getting over the Bombers by a narrow margin.

Luke Parker is the favourite for Best on Ground Honours, and Callum Mills, Josh Kennedy and Chad Warner were consistent throughout the match. Sam Reid also had one of his better games for the Swans.

For the Bombers, Zach Merrett was again one of their best, and Jordan Ridley and Nick Hind were good at getting the ball out of defence.

Vote Chances

Chad Warner – 23 Disposals (11 Contested), 6 Clearances, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles and 21 Pressure Acts

Callum Mills – 25 Disposals (20 Effective), 5 Marks, 7 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements and 1 Goal

Jordan Ridley – 28 Disposals (22 Effective), 9 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks (3 Contested), 12 Rebound 50s, 656 Metres Gained and 5 Spoils

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Sydney) Sam Reid (1)

15 Disposals (14 Effective), 7 Marks (6 Contested), 7 Score Involvements, 5 Hit-outs to advantage, 7 One Percenters, 7 Spoils and 2 Goals

2 Votes (Essendon) Zach Merrett (3)

27 Disposals (13 Contested), 8 Intercept Possessions, 11 Inside 50s, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 529 Metres Gained, 9 Tackles and 35 Pressure Acts

3 Votes (Sydney) Luke Parker (4) ⭐⭐⭐

32 Disposals (16 Contested), 8 Intercept Possessions, 7 Marks, 6 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 11 Ground Ball Gets and 1 Goal

Note – The Swans won a close one, and an experienced midfielder Luke Parker had a big game in the middle of the ground. He should get the three votes based on the impact he had and won a lot of the football in the closing stages.


Port Adelaide vs Richmond

Port Adelaide 11.13 79 – Richmond 11.11 77

(Port Adelaide by 2 Points)

The Power came out on top in a close Friday Night clash against the reigning Premiers in a tough match to split the votes.

Port Adelaide led most of the evening and was well served by Travis Boak and Ollie Wines in the middle of the ground.

Zak Butters and Xavier Duursma were very impressive before getting injured, and Robbie Gray kicked a match-winning goal at the end.

Allir Allir and Dan Houston were very good down back for the Power all evening.

Jayden Short got a lot of the footy in the back-half for the Tigers, and Kane Lambert, Shai Bolton and Trent Cotchin finished the game off well to give the Tigers a chance at pinching the win.

Vote Chances

Allir Allir – 23 Disposals (18 Effective), 6 Marks (2 Contested), 8 Rebound 50s, 8 One Percenters and 7 Spoils

Trent Cotchin – 22 Disposals (18 Contested), 4 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 14 Ground Ball Gets and 25 Pressure Acts

Kane Lambert – 24 Disposals (19 Effective), 10 Score Involvements, 4 Tackles, 21 Pressure Acts and 2 Goals

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Port Adelaide) Ollie Wines (2)

27 Disposals (14 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 5 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 9 Ground Ball Gets and 4 Tackles

2 Votes (Richmond) Jayden Short (2)

31 Disposals (26 Effective), 10 Intercept Possessions, 10 Rebound 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 808 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

3 Votes (Port Adelaide) Travis Boak (6) ⭐

29 Disposals (13 Contested), 7 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 9 Ground Ball Gets and 5 Score Involvements

Note – A close Friday Night encounter and the Power managed to scrape home by a couple of points. Boak led by example in this clash, but Zak Butters was probably the standout before getting injured and sitting out the fourth term. A challenging game to pick a standout, but Boak was impressive.


Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane

Western Bulldogs 10.13 73 – Brisbane 8.6 54

(Western Bulldogs by 19 Points)

The Bulldogs continue their impressive start to the 2021 AFL Season with another impressive victory, this time over the Lions.

Jack Macrae and recruit Adam Treloar led the Bulldogs in the middle, and the Dogs Forwards, Aaron Naughton and Tim English both made it tough for the Lions backs.

For the Lions, Harris Andrews tried his best down back, and Hugh McCluggage, Lachie Neale and Daniel Rich won a lot of the football.

Vote Chances

Aaron Naughton – 18 Disposals (11 Contested), 8 Marks (4 Contested and 3 Marks Inside 50), 8 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 22 Pressure Acts and 2 Goals

Harris Andrews – 23 Disposals (18 Effective and 12 Contested), 14 Intercept Possessions, 12 Marks, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 9 One Percenters, 7 Spoils and 1 Goal

Hugh McCluggage – 25 Disposals (19 Effective), 12 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 6 Score Involvements, 23 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal

Projected Votes

1 Vote (W.Bulldogs) Tim English (1)

17 Disposals (11 Contested), 9 Marks (5 Contested and 6 Inside 50), 4 Clearances, 7 Score Involvements and 3 Goals

2 Votes (W.Bulldogs) Adam Treloar (4)

29 Disposals (19 Contested), 8 Intercept Possessions, 5 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 18 Ground Ball Gets, 10 Tackles and 28 Pressure Acts

3 Votes (W.Bulldogs) Jack Macrae (8) ⭐⭐

32 Disposals (25 Effective and 15 Contested), 7 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 8 Tackles, 25 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal

Note – The Bulldogs continue on their merry way, and Jack Macrae was again one of their best. He will have competition for the three votes in this match, with recruit Adam Treloar having a big game and winning a lot of contested ball. Macrae gets the nod here as he polls well on Brownlow Night and racks up a lot of the football.


St Kilda vs West Coast

St Kilda 15.12 102 – West Coast 13.4 82

(St Kilda by 20 Points)

The Eagles looked home at half-time in this match with a 28 point lead and may have put the cue in the rack.

In the Upset of the Round, the Saints came back and won this match by applying pressure on the Eagles that they were not expecting.

Jack Steele, Brad Crouch and Brad Hill led the way for the Saints, whilst big forward Max King snagged 5 Goals.

The Eagles were disappointing, but Jack Petruccelle booted 4 Goals to be their standout.

Vote Chances

Jack Billings – 27 Disposals (20 Effective and 13 Contested), 4 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 12 Score Involvements, 11 Ground Ball Gets and 2 Goals

Brad Hill – 26 Disposals, 9 Marks, 3 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements and 566 Metres Gained

Jack Petruccelle – 13 Disposals, 4 Marks, 4 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements and 4 Goals

Projected Votes

1 Vote (St Kilda) Max King (1)

13 Disposals, 4 Marks (4 Marks Inside 50), 10 Score Involvements, 2 Goal Assists and 5 Goals

2 Votes (St Kilda) Brad Crouch (2)

26 Disposals (15 Contested), 6 Clearances, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 12 Tackles and 25 Pressure Acts


Lock of the Week

Lock of the Week 2021

3 Votes ( St Kilda) Jack Steele (4) ⭐⭐⭐

33 Disposals (24 Effective and 17 Contested), 5 Marks, 6 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 13 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles and 1 Goal

Note – The Saints came out to play in the second half, and it was Jack Steele that led from the front in a clear best on ground showing. He stands out with his confidence with the football and makes smart decisions. He polled well last season and is our lock of the week.


Gold Coast vs Carlton

Gold Coast 8.11 59 – Carlton 9.16 70

(Carlton by 11 Points)

In a close contest for most of the night, the Blues pulled away in the last quarter for an 11 Point win.

Ed Curnow was the standout for the Blues in the middle of the ground, whist Sam Docherty, Jacob Weitering and Liam Jones were all solid in defence.

The Suns tried hard all night, and the efforts of Hugh Greenwood and Touk Miller kept Gold Coast close enough all evening.

Vote Chances

Liam Jones – 21 Disposals, 13 Intercept Possessions, 11 Marks (9 Intercept Marks), 5 Inside 50s and 472 Metres Gained

Jacob Weitering – 21 Disposals, 12 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks, 5 Rebound 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 455 Metres Gained, 15 One Percenters and 14 Spoils

Sam Docherty – 28 Disposals (22 Effective), 8 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks, 9 Rebound 50s and 516 Metres Gained

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Gold Coast) Touk Miller (3)

28 Disposals (13 Contested), 5 Marks, 4 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 13 Tackles and 37 Pressure Acts

2 Votes (Gold Coast) Hugh Greenwood (4)

27 Disposals (18 Contested), 10 Clearances, 13 Ground Ball Gets, 10 Tackles and 1 Goal

3 Votes (Carlton) Ed Curnow (3) ⭐

32 Disposals (24 Effective and 12 Contested), 8 Clearances, 7 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles and 1 Goal

Note – The Blues won the match, but this was a tough match to split the votes. Ed Curnow gets the nod as he was influential in the middle of the ground, but a couple of Suns had decent games in the middle, and the match was close.


Collingwood vs GWS

Collingwood 9.6 60 – GWS 14.6 90

(GWS by 30 Points)

Collingwood were expected to win this match, but the Giants came to play at the MCG and showed some form from previous seasons.

Toby Greene led the way with 5 Goals, and both Callan Ward and Tim Taranto won the midfield battle.

Defenders Lachlan Ash and Lachlan Keefe defended the ground with confidence, and Jacob Hopper was another solid contributor in the middle of the ground.

Hard to find any real contributors for the Pies, but Steele Sidebottom did rack up 30 Disposals.

Vote Chances

Jacob Hopper – 32 Disposals (19 Contested), 5 Marks, 5 Clearances, 5 Rebound 50s, 14 Ground Ball Gets and 22 Pressure Acts

Lachlan Ash – 28 Disposals (23 Effective), 7 Intercept Possessions, 11 Marks, 4 Inside 50s, 5 Rebound 50s, 2 Goal Assists, 4 Tackles and 482 Metres Gained

Lachlan Keefe – 15 Disposals, 8 Intercept Possessions, 10 Marks (4 Contested and 6 Intercept Marks), 9 One Percenters and 9 Spoils

Projected Votes

1 Vote (GWS) Tim Taranto (1)

34 Disposals (10 Contested), 8 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks, 6 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles and 27 Pressure Acts

2 Votes (GWS) Callan Ward (2)

34 Disposals (28 Effective and 10 Contested), 8 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks, 6 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles and 27 Pressure Acts

3 Votes (GWS) Toby Greene (5) ⭐⭐⭐

18 Disposals (13 Effective), 4 Marks (3 Marks Inside 50), 8 Score Involvements, 4 Tackles, 25 Pressure Acts and 5 Goals

Note – Greene polled very in the 2020 Brownlow Medal Count, and when he kicks a bag of goals, he generally features in the votes. He was a clear X-Factor in this match and was good at applying forward pressure on the Pies defenders. Came close to being the lock of the week.


North Melbourne vs Adelaide

North Melbourne 10.8 68 – Adelaide 16.13 109

(Adelaide by 41 Points)

The Crows continued their solid start to the season and were too good for the Kangaroos.

Rory Laird was again solid in the middle of the ground, and Lachlan Sholl had a significant impact as an outside player. Paul Seedsman and Brodie Smith also won a lot of the football and ruckman Reilly O’Brien played his best game of the year.

Not a lot to consider for the Kangaroos, but Aaron Hall got a lot of the football, Jack Ziebell was ok down back, and Todd Goldstein battled hard in the ruck.

Vote Chances

Paul Seedsman – 25 Disposals (21 Effective), 8 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 611 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

Brodie Smith – 22 Disposals (18 Effective), 9 Intercept Possessions, 7 Marks ( 4 Intercept Marks), 6 Inside 50s, 7 Rebound 50s and 746 Metres Gained

Tom Doedee – 18 Disposals (15 Effective), 11 Intercept Possessions, 9 Marks (6 Intercept Marks and 5 Contested), 5 Rebound 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 6 One Percenters and 5 Spoils

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Adelaide) Reilly O’Brien (1)

24 Disposals (18 Effective and 15 Contested), 8 Marks (4 Contested and 2 Marks Inside 50), 6 Clearances, 8 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets and 1 Goal

2 Votes (Adelaide) Rory Laird (4)

31 Disposals (18 Contested), 11 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s and 15 Ground Ball Gets

3 Votes (Adelaide) Lachlan Sholl (3) ⭐⭐

31 Disposals (25 Effective), 6 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks, 5 Inside 50s, 6 Rebound 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 595 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

Note – Sholl played a game similar to this one in the 2020 AFL Season and snagged the three votes in his rookie season. His elite ball using ability was on show in this match, but there were quite a few contributors for the Crows in the win. Sholl’s efficient use of the football gets the nod in this match.


Melbourne vs Geelong

Melbourne 12.13 85 – Geelong 9.6 60

(Melbourne by 25 Points)

The Demons are undefeated and beat the Cats quite comfortably in the end.

Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver and Jack Viney were the standouts in the middle of the ground, and Max Gawn won the ruck battle. Forwards Bailey Fritch and Kysaiah Pickett were also lively up forward.

For the Cats, Joel Selwood never stopped trying and was the Cats best player.

Vote Chances

Max Gawn – 23 Disposals (10 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks, 6 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 4 Rebound 50s, 10 Hit-outs to advantage and 1 Goal

Bailey Fritsch – 14 Disposals, 8 Marks (4 Marks Inside 50), 9 Score Involvements and 4 Goals

Joel Selwood – 30 Disposals (14 Contested), 5 Marks, 4 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 8 Tackles and 29 Pressure Acts

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Melbourne) Jack Viney (1)

24 Disposals (16 Contested), 8 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 12 Tackles and 33 Pressure Acts

2 Votes (Melbourne) Clayton Oliver (6)

34 Disposals (14 Contested), 7 Marks, 6 Clearances, 9 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 12 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles and 474 Metres Gained

3 Votes (Melbourne) Christian Petracca (6) ⭐⭐

36 Disposals (15 Contested), 7 Marks, 9 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 13 Ground Ball Gets, 657 Metres Gained, 24 Pressure Acts and 2 Goals

Note – Petracca was brilliant in this match and stood out with his work rate and elite skill set. He kicked a couple of goals and should get the three votes, but his midfield partner in crime Clayton Oliver, was also very good.


Fremantle vs Hawthorn

Fremantle 13.18 96 – Hawthorn 12.9 81

(Fremantle by 15 Points)

Sunday Afternoon at Optus Stadium, and the Dockers got off to the fast start against the Hawks. The Hawks made a game of it, but Fremantle were still too good to win the match by 15 Points.

Nat Fyfe, David Mundy and Adam Cerra were the main contributors for the Dockers in the middle, Fyfe will need to do some goalkicking practice after kicking 0 Goals and 6 Behinds. Sean Darcy was also a solid presence in the ruck and up forward.

For the Hawks, Tom Mitchell kept winning the football, and Chad Wingard was also one of their standouts.

Vote Chances

Sean Darcy – 14 Disposals (12 Effective and 10 Contested), 5 Marks (5 Contested Marks), 4 Clearances, 9 Score Involvements, 10 Hit-outs to advantage and 3 Goals

Adam Cerra – 23 Disposals (19 Effective), 7 Marks, 5 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 468 Metres Gained, 6 Tackles and 25 Pressure Acts

Chad Wingard – 26 Disposals (10 Contested), 7 Marks, 7 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles and 1 Goal

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Fremantle) David Mundy (4)

25 Disposals (18 Effective and 11 Contested), 5 Marks, 7 Clearances, 9 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 476 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

2 Votes (Hawthorn) Tom Mitchell (6)

38 Disposals (28 Effective and 10 Contested), 5 Marks, 5 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 439 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

3 Votes (Fremantle) Nat Fyfe (3) ⭐⭐

30 Disposals (14 Contested), 5 Clearances, 11 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 449 Metres Gained, 5 Tackles and 30 Pressure Acts

Note – The Dual Brownlow Medalist was fantastic in the win, but did miss six shots at goal. These are the types of games Fyfe has polled three votes consistently in the past, but Veteran David Mundy was also excellent, and Tom Mitchell won a lot of the footy.


To see projected votes for the 2020 AFL Season, click the link, Brownlow Medal Predictor 2020 or find them on the menu bar.

To see the projected votes for previous rounds in 2021, click the links on the bottom of this post, find them on the menu bar or use the TAGS at the bottom.

Feel free to leave any comments, questions or who you think will get the votes at the bottom of the post.

Always good to hear from fellow footy fans!

Cheers, 

dailysportsbuddy.com

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About dailysportsbuddy 281 Articles
Chris from Dailysportsbuddy is a sports enthusiast with a specific focus on AFL, Basketball and Golf. With a keen interest in sports statistics, he follows the Brownlow Medal closely and has produced a model that focuses on analysing matches, analysing previous counts and using key statistics to help determine which players have the best chance of polling in the count.

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