The AFL Semi Finals kick off on a Friday Night, and the first do or die clash features the Richmond Tigers taking on the St Kilda Saints at Metricon Stadium.
The first week of the AFL Finals saw some excellent clashes that went down to the wire. The Tigers were a little undisciplined in their clash against the Lions giving away a lot of free-kicks, and the Saints managed to hold on against a fast finishing Western Bulldogs team.
Be sure to check back before each AFL Finals match, for AFL Footy Tips, AFL Previews, AFL Predictions and AFL Player Props for each round of the 2020 AFL Season.
Also, check out our in-depth Round by Round Brownlow Medal Predictions for the 2020 AFL Season. A summary of each round, with projected votes and some of the best chances based on some of the key statistical areas from previous winners and top-five finishes. Stats don’t mean everything, but some key stats have been consistent from past winners over the journey.
Tipping Results this Season
Finals Tips – 2/4
Finals Player Props – 6/10
Season Tips – 111/157 = 70.70%
Season Player Props – 73/130 = 56.15%
Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda Saints
Round 4 2020, St Kilda 15.3 93 – Richmond 10.7 67
(St Kilda by 26 Points)
The Saints won the only clash between these two sides earlier in the year. It was former Tiger, Dan Butler that booted 3 goals and Jack Steele was solid the entire day with 21 Disposals and 10 Tackles.
Last 5 Meetings
Richmond – 4 Wins
St Kilda – 1 Win
The Tigers made a late run in their Qualifying Final against the Lions, but weren’t good enough on the night and lost the match by 15 Points.
The Saints managed their first finals victory since the 2010 Preliminary Final which was also against the Bulldogs. The Saints led the majority of the contest, but managed to hold off a fast-finishing Bulldogs side to win by 3 points.
The Tigers have made a couple of changes for this final with Jake Aarts and Mabior Chol being omitted from the team. Key forward Tom Lynch comes back into the side, and Nathan Broad will help the Tigers backline.
The Saints have lost a few key players for this encounter, with the in-form Paddy Ryder out of the side injured. Jake Carlisle is out of the team for personal reasons, and Ben Long is out through suspension. The three inclusions are Josh Battle, Jonathon Marsh and Shane Savage.
Current Head to Head Odds
Richmond – $1.28
St Kilda – $3.75
There are two matches this weekend, and this is the easier game to pick a winner. The Tigers are the more experienced side and have proven they can play on the big stage in recent seasons with 2 Premierships in the last three seasons. They are stable in all areas of the field, and the addition of Tom Lynch will make it challenging for the Saints defenders. They will be looking to rectify some of the issues from last week and shouldn’t have too many problems in this match.
The Saints, on the other hand, have nothing to lose and may have over achieved a little this season, but have made their fans happy with a finals win. They have beaten the Tigers and the Power this season, but just when they may be the team to back, they have let us down on occasions this year. They will need big matches from their midfielders, and their backline will be busy for the majority of the contest.
Finals experience is important, and the Tigers are a proven side that has had a pretty good season. The Tigers should have no trouble in this clash.
Our Pick – Richmond (Win)
Player Prop – Jack Riewoldt 2+ Goals
Riewoldt has performed in the finals before and the Saints may be a little thin down back, with the loss of Jake Carlisle. Jack has kicked 8 Goals in his last 3 games and is in some decent form. Should get plenty of goal chances in this clash.
Trent Cotchin + 61.5 Fantasy Points
Conditions are expected to be slippery for this clash and that normally means more fantasy points for the in and under midfielders that can lay tackles. Has a season average of 65.6 and normally steps up in the finals.