Brownlow Medal Predictor, Round 1 2021
The new season is upon us, and we are back to 20 minute quarters for AFL Season 2021.
It will be interesting to see how some of the teams adapt to playing for almost an extra quarter and whether their tactics will change with a few new rules being implemented.
Lachie Neale was a worthy winner of the 2020 Brownlow Medal, and he will be looking to replicate a fine season in 2021.
The DailySportsBuddy Brownlow Medal Predictor managed to get the top four correct in order for the 2020 AFL Season and has correctly predicted eight out of the top 10 in back to back seasons.
To see how the Brownlow Medal Predictor went last season, click the bottom link.
Round 1 of the 2021 AFL season, and we may be seeing the return of the big forward. Some new rules have stopped a bit of the congestion, and sides can now move the ball more freely with defenders having less time to react.
Taylor Walker was a forgotten forward in recent seasons and proved that he can still kick a bag if given a bit of extra space up forward.
Here is the Brownlow Medal Predictor for Round 1 of the 2021 AFL Season.
Be sure to check back each week of the 2020 AFL Season for an in-depth look at some of the better players for each round and who should get the votes.
Round by Round analysis of the Brownlow Medal Count. Who gets the Brownlow Votes, and who has the best chance to become the Brownlow Medal Winner on Brownlow Medal Night.
This Brownlow Medal Tracker features the players that have the best chance of getting the votes and three other players that are considered a vote chance.
A Star ⭐ rating is used to show the confidence level of each three-vote prediction.
⭐ = Tough Game to Pick
⭐⭐ = A Decent Chance
⭐⭐⭐ = Should get the Three Votes
Richmond vs Carlton
Richmond 15.15 105 – Carlton 11.14 80
(Richmond by 25 Points)
The traditional season opener kicked off proceedings, and the Blues put up a fight but lost by a predictable margin.
Dustin Martin looks like he is ready to take his game to the next level and is an absolute lock for the 3 votes in this one.
Jack Graham stepped up for the Tigers in the absence of Trent Cotchin and had a big night in the middle of the ground. Other Tigers that stepped up were Shane Edwards, Shai Bolton, Jayden Short, Dion Prestia, and Jack Riewoldt kicked a bag.
For the Blues, Patrick Cripps had a big first-half, but couldn’t get near it in the second-half. Sam Walsh was their best and most consistent all night. Adam Saad provided a lot of run and carry for his new side, and Ed Curnow was a solid contributor in the middle.
Shai Bolton – 25 Disposals (14 Contested), 9 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s and 1 Goal
Shane Edwards – 27 disposals (21 Effective and 12 Contested) and 11 Ground Ball Gets
Dion Prestia – 25 Disposals (12 Contested), 9 Clearances, 9 Score Involvements and 24 Pressure Acts
1 Vote (Carlton) Sam Walsh
31 Disposals (27 Effective and 13 Contested), 6 Clearances, 6 Marks, 7 Score Involvements, and 11 Ground Ball Gets
2 Votes (Richmond) Jack Graham
33 Disposals (26 Effective), 5 Clearances, 11 Inside 50s, 26 Pressure Acts and 836 Metres Gained
Lock of the Week
3 Votes (Richmond) Dustin Martin ⭐⭐⭐
31 Disposals (14 Contested), 7 marks (2 Contested), 5 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 2 Goals and 12 Score Involvements
Note – Dusty looked on from the get-go in this match and looks ready to take his game to another level. He stood out in the win and should easily get the maximum votes.
Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs
Collingwood 7.11 53 – Western Bulldogs 10.9 69
(Western Bulldogs by 16 Points)
The Magpies took on the Bulldogs on a Friday Night, and it was the Western Bulldogs midfielders that got it done in a solid showing.
Jack Macrae was prolific in the middle of the ground, and Bailey Smith kept racking up the stats playing on the outside. Marcus Bontempelli had an impact in the middle, and Bailey Williams, Alex Keath and Caleb Daniel made it tough for the Pies Forwards.
For the Magpies, veteran Scott Pendlebury had his usual impact in the middle of the ground with smart decisions and effective ball use. Darcy Moore was rock solid down back, and in many respects, kept the Magpies in the game on occasions.
Marcus Bontempelli – 28 Disposals (11 Contested), 9 Marks (2 Contested and 2 Marks Inside 50), 5 Score Involvements and 397 Metres Gained
Bailey Williams – 28 Disposals (22 Effective), 9 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks, 6 Rebound 50s and 550 Metres Gained
Darcy Moore – 18 Disposals (17 Effective), 9 Intercept Possessions, 12 Marks (8 Intercept Marks and 6 Contested Marks), 7 Spoils and 8 One Percenters
1 Vote (Collingwood) Scott Pendlebury
25 Disposals (18 Effective and 13 Contested), 4 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 24 Pressure Acts and 570 Metres Gained
2 Votes (W.Bulldogs) Bailey Smith
36 Disposals (27 Effective and 10 Contested), 8 Marks, 5 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 526 Metres Gained and 2 Goals
3 Votes (W.Bulldogs) Jack Macrae ⭐⭐
35 Disposals (28 Effective), 7 Marks, 7 Tackles and 21 Pressure Acts
Note – Bailey Smith won the Bob Rose – Charlie Sutton Medal, but did give away five free kicks throughout the contest. Macrae is a noted vote-getter, and when the game mattered he had a significant influence on the result.
Melbourne vs Fremantle
Melbourne 11.14 80 – Fremantle 8.10 58
(Melbourne by 22 Points)
The Demons came out to play in the opening round, and it was their key position players that stood up. Tom McDonald played a big part in setting up the lead before half-time and kept presenting well up forward for most of the contest.
Steven May and Jake Lever were rock solid down back for the Demons, which had an impact on Max Gawn’s normal output. Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca and former Docker Ed Langdon all impacted the middle of the Ground.
For the Dockers, Nat Fyfe had a good first half, and Andrew Brayshaw was probably their most consistent player throughout the match.
Jake Lever – 18 Disposals (14 Effective), 12 Intercept Possessions, 7 Marks (4 Contested) and 5 Rebound 50s
Christian Petracca – 24 Disposals, 5 Inside 50s, 25 Pressure Acts and 2 Goals
Nat Fyfe – 27 Disposals (21 Effective and 13 Contested), 9 Clearances, 8 Score Involvements and 10 Ground Ball Gets
1 Vote (Melbourne) Clayton Oliver
35 Disposals (28 Effective and 15 Contested), 7 Clearances, 9 Score Involvements and 10 Ground Ball Gets
2 Votes (Melbourne) Steven May
24 Disposals (19 Effective), 8 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks (3 Contested), 8 Rebound 50s and 578 Metres Gained
3 Votes (Melbourne) Tom McDonald ⭐
18 Disposals, 9 Marks (2 Contested), 6 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements and 2 Goals
Note – A challenging game to split the votes with a couple of Demons defenders and Clayton Oliver, all having a significant influence on the result. When the game was in the early stages, Tom McDonald presented well up forward and was a big reason the Dees had a sizeable half-time Lead.
Adelaide vs Geelong
Adelaide 15.13 103 – Geelong 13.13 91
(Adelaide by 12 Points)
The Crows got the early jump on the Cats and managed to build a big enough lead to setup a massive upset win at home.
Taylor Walker may be a beneficiary of the new rules and kicked a bag of goals, whilst Rory Laird and Rory Sloane were the dominant midfielders. Ben Keayes and Lachlan Sholl were also very good for the Crows in the win.
For the Cats, Patrick Dangerfield had a solid match, and new Cat Issac Smith provided experience and some run and carry throughout the contest.
Ben Keayes – 23 Disposals (10 Contested), 7 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements and 27 Pressure Acts
Lachlan Sholl – 23 Disposals (17 Effective), 9 Marks and 457 Metres Gained
Patrick Dangerfield – 26 Disposals, 6 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s and 747 Metres Gained
1 Vote (Adelaide) Rory Sloane
20 Disposals (16 Effective and 13 Contested), 7 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements and 28 Pressure Acts
2 Votes (Adelaide) Rory Laird
27 Disposals, 7 Marks, 4 Clearances, 8 Score Involvements, 6 Tackles and 28 Pressure Acts
3 Votes (Adelaide) Taylor Walker ⭐⭐
18 Disposals (14 Contested), 7 Marks (4 Marks Inside 50), 12 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets and 5 Goals
Note – Walker was busy all day up forward and was a big reason the Crows developed a match-winning lead. He has not kicked a bag of goals for a while, so should stand out and be the favourite for the maximum votes.
Essendon vs Hawthorn
Essendon 13.13 91 – Hawthorn 14.8 92
(Hawthorn by 1 Point)
The Bombers got off to a hot start and led the majority of the contest, only to be run over by the Hawks in the closing stages.
Andrew McGrath and Zach Merrett won a lot of the football, especially in the first half, but it was Tom Mitchell from the Hawks who stole the show in the second-half.
Mitchell was a clear best on ground in the second-half and helped the Hawks pinch the match in the closing stages. His midfield counterpart, Jaeger O’Meara, was also solid all night, and both may very well feature in the votes.
Zach Merrett – 31 Disposals (10 Contested), 8 Inside 50s and 1 Goal
Nick Hind – 25 Disposals, 9 Intercept Possessions, 8 Inside 50s, 6 Rebound 50s, 7 Score Involvements and 636 Metres Gained
Will Day – 28 Disposals (22 Effective), 8 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks (5 Intercept Marks), 7 Rebound 50s, 7 Score Involvements and 536 Metres Gained
1 Vote (Hawthorn) Jaeger O’Meara
30 Disposals (13 Contested) 9 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s and 4 Tackles
2 Votes (Essendon) Andrew McGrath
33 Disposals (13 Contested), 7 Intercept Possessions, 5 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 11 Tackles, 25 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal
3 Votes (Hawthorn) Tom Mitchell ⭐⭐
39 Disposals (30 Effective and 14 Contested) 9 Score Involvements, 11 Ground Ball Gets and 5 Tackles
Note – Mitchell had a massive second-half and stood up to help the Hawks pinch this match. Andrew McGrath was also outstanding throughout the contest, so Mitchell is no certainty, but should be the favourite for the three.
Brisbane vs Sydney
Brisbane 14.10 94 – Sydney 19.11 125
(Sydney by 31 Points)
The Swans caused one of the upsets of the round and it was some of their younger players that may feature in the votes.
In his first game of AFL Footy, Errol Gulden showed he has plenty to offer, and James Rowbottom was influential in the middle of the ground.
Tom Hickey won the ruck battle in his first match for the Swans, and Callum Mills, Luke Parker and Issac Heeney all made significant contributions.
The Lions were outplayed, with reigning Brownlow Medalist Lachie Neale having a quiet match. Dayne Zorko and Zac Bailey were probably the two best for the Lions.
James Rowbottom – 22 Disposals (17 Effective and 13 Contested), 11 Score Involvements and 8 Tackles
Luke Parker – 23 Disposals, 5 Marks, 8 Score Involvements and 2 Goals
Issac Heeney – 13 Disposals, 8 Marks (2 Contested), 5 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements and 3 Goals
1 Vote (Sydney) Tom Hickey
23 Disposals (19 Effective and 14 Contested), 9 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 9 Ground Ball Gets and 5 Spoils
2 Votes (Sydney) Errol Gulden
19 Disposals (16 Effective), 10 Marks, 7 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements and 3 Goals
3 Votes (Sydney) Callum Mills ⭐⭐
29 Disposals (25 Effective), 8 Marks, 10 Score Involvements and 2 Goals
Note – Mills was brilliant in the middle of the ground in this match, but a rookie and a recycled ruckman also significantly contributed. Mills will probably get the three, but it could go to a few others.
North Melbourne vs Port Adelaide
North Melbourne 9.11 65 – Port Adelaide 17.15 117
(Port Adelaide by 52 Points)
The Kangaroos hung around in the first quarter against the Power, but the Power pulled away and were too good.
A couple of their more experienced campaigners, Travis Boak and Ollie Wines had solid games in the middle of the Ground, and Recruit Orazio Fantasia booted 4 Goals. Their Defenders also made it tough for the Roos, with Dan Houston being the standout down back.
The shining light for the Kangaroos was new recruit, Jaidyn Stephenson. He won a lot of the football in the middle of the ground and may be used there a lot this season. May poll votes in this match, but it looks unlikely given the margin.
Ollie Wines – 30 Disposals (13 Contested), 5 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s and 10 Score Involvements
Willem Drew – 17 Disposals (10 Contested), 6 Clearances and 11 Tackles
Jaidyn Stephenson – 33 Disposals, 5 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 7 Tackles and 541 Metres Gained
1 Vote (Port Adelaide) Dan Houston
26 Disposals, 7 Intercept Possessions, 6 Inside 50s, 6 Rebound 50s, 8 Score Involvements and 594 Metres Gained
2 Votes (Port Adelaide) Orazio Fantasia
14 Disposals, 4 Inside 50s, 12 Score Involvements and 4 Goals
3 Votes (Port Adelaide) Travis Boak ⭐⭐
27 Disposals (21 Effective and 13 Contested), 7 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 12 Score Involvements and 2 Goals
Note – Boak was of the best midfielders on the ground and racked up many key statistics that have been consistent from past winners. The favourite for the maximum votes, but the Power did have a lot of contributors.
GWS Giants vs St Kilda
GWS 11.12 78 – St Kilda 13.8 86
(St Kilda by 8 Points)
The Saints got their season off to a winning start in a wet weather slog against the Giants.
Tim Membrey was a solid target up forward for the Saints for most of the contest, booting 3 Goals. Jack Billings, Jade Gresham and Hunter Clark all stood up in the middle of the ground and were important in the closing stages.
For the Giants, Tim Taranto, Jacob Hopper and Harry Perryman tried hard all day, and Matt Flynn pleased a lot of AFL Fantasy coaches with a lot of the football in a solid showing.
Matt Flynn – 17 Disposals (15 Effective and 14 Contested), 8 Intercept Possessions, 5 Marks (3 Contested), 5 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s and 10 Hit-outs to advantage
Jacob Hopper – 28 Disposals (15 Contested), 6 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 11 Ground Ball Gets and 1 Goal
Tim Taranto – 26 Disposals, 7 Inside 50s, 21 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal
1 Vote (St Kilda) Hunter Clark
24 Disposals (12 Contested), 7 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 5 Rebound 50s, 11 Ground Ball Gets and 537 Metres Gained
2 Votes (St Kilda) Jack Billings
30 Disposals (22 Effective and 11 Contested), 4 Inside 50s, 11 Ground Ball Gets and 1 Goal
3 Votes (St Kilda) Tim Membrey ⭐⭐
21 Disposals (17 Effective), 7 Marks, 7 Inside 50s, 3 Goals and 586 Metres Gained
Note – Membrey presented well all day and got noticed with several marks and effective ball use. He hit the scoreboard for a few goals and should be the favourite for the votes.
West Coast vs Gold Coast
West Coast 12.11 83 – Gold Coast 8.10 58
(West Coast by 25 Points)
It was well over 30 degrees out west, and the predictable control the football style of play was on show.
Eagles Midfielders, Tim Kelly and Dom Sheed won a lot of the football, and Oscar Allen proved that he can play on both ends of the ground.
David Swallow was probably the best for the Suns, and Jack Bowes got a lot of the football, but many of his possessions were cheap ones on the back-half.
Shannon Hurn – 31 Disposals (29 Effective), 9 Intercept Possessions, 12 Marks, 9 Score Involvements and 635 Metres Gained
David Swallow – 29 Disposals (24 Effective), 7 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets and 1 Goal
Jack Bowes – 30 Disposals (30 Effective), 14 Marks, 7 Rebound 50s and 607 Metres Gained
1 Vote (West Coast) Oscar Allen
13 Disposals (10 Effective), 8 Marks (4 Marks Inside 50), 7 Score Involvements and 4 Goals
2 Votes (West Coast) Tim Kelly
28 Disposals (21 Effective and 10 Contested), 7 Marks, 5 Clearances, 9 Inside 50s, 13 Score Involvements and 592 Metres Gained
3 Votes (West Coast) Dom Sheed ⭐
34 Disposals (10 Contested), 12 Marks, 9 Clearances, 7 Score Involvements and 644 Metres Gained
Note – A tough game to predict the three 3 votes out West. Both sides played the kick/mark game in warm conditions, but it was a couple of the Eagles mids that stood out the most. Sheed gets the nod here but is no certainty with Tim Kelly and Oscar Allen having solid games.
For the projected votes for other rounds click the Brownlow Medal Predictor TAG or Brownlow Medal Tracker TAG at the bottom of this post.