Brownlow Medal Tracker, Round 3 2021
Round 3 of the 2021 AFL Season is complete, and some of the new rules this season are suggesting the big forwards are back.
Most matches tend to be higher scoring, and forwards have more chances to kick a bag of goals.
Josh Bruce from the Western Bulldogs kicked a total of 14 Goals during the shortened 2020 Season. Just three rounds in this year, and he already has 14 to his name after an impressive ten against the lowly Kangaroos in Round 3.
The same can be said for Taylor Walker, who only booted the 15 Goals last year. He has already kicked 17 this season after the three rounds.
Forwards seem to have more space, and defenders will need to be more accountable to the player they are defending, or they will risk getting big bags of goals kicked on them.
Here is the Brownlow Medal Predictor for Round 3 of the 2021 AFL Season.
Be sure to check back each week of the 2021 AFL Season for an in-depth look at some of the better players for each round and who should get the votes.
Round by Round analysis of the Brownlow Medal Count. Who gets the Brownlow Votes, and who has the best chance to become the Brownlow Medal Winner on Brownlow Medal Night.
This Brownlow Medal Tracker features the players that have the best chance of getting the votes and three other players that are considered a vote chance in each match.
A Star ⭐ rating is used to show the confidence level of each three-vote prediction.
⭐ = Tough Game to Pick
⭐⭐ = A Decent Chance
⭐⭐⭐ = Should get the 3 Votes
Collingwood vs Brisbane
Collingwood 11.6 72 – Brisbane 11.7 73
(Brisbane by 1 Point)
The Lions trailed all night and pinched the match after the siren with a goal from Zac Bailey.
Brodie Grundy dominated the ruck against a couple of inexperienced Lions and is the favourite for Best on Ground Honours. Scott Pendlebury had another decent match for the Magpies, and Jeremy Howe and Isaac Quaynor were solid in defence all evening.
For Brisbane, Jarryd Lyons, Hugh McCluggage and Dayne Zorko lifted in the second-half to help the Lions move the ball forward. Harris Andrews and Daniel Rich were important down back, and Joe Daniher was impressive with 3 Goals.
Vote Chances
Scott Pendlebury – 30 Disposals (22 Effective and 13 Contested), 8 Marks, and 8 Ground Ball Gets
Daniel Rich – 28 Disposals (24 Effective), 5 Inside 50s, 8 Rebound 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 637 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
Dayne Zorko – 24 Disposals, 11 Marks, 9 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 574 Metres Gained, 8 Tackles and 25 Pressure Acts
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Brisbane) Hugh McCluggage (1)
28 Disposals, 8 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 9 Ground Ball Gets, 552 Metres Gained, 25 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal
2 Votes (Brisbane) Jarryd Lyons (3)
29 Disposals (13 Contested), 8 Marks, 5 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 10 Tackles and 26 Pressure Acts
3 Votes (Collingwood) Brodie Grundy (3) ⭐⭐
28 Disposals (18 Contested), 5 Marks, 5 Clearances, 15 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles and 21 Hit-outs to advantage
Note – The Lions pinched the match, but Grundy was consistent throughout the contest and dominated the ruck. Jarryd Lyons came up big in the closing stages and may pinch the maximum votes, but 28 Disposals and 15 Ground Ball Gets are big numbers for a ruckman.
North Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs
North Melbourne 5.9 39 – Western Bulldogs 25.17 167
(Western Bulldogs by 128 Points)
The Good Friday clash was a smashing, and a forgotten Bulldogs forward popped up and booted 10 Goals in a one-sided affair. The Kangaroos hung around in the first quarter, but the Dogs pulled away as they dominated the middle of the ground.
Josh Bruce was best on the ground with 10 Goals, and Adam Treloar chipped in with 3 Goals.
Jack Macrae and Josh Dunkley had big games in the middle of the ground, and Alex Keath was solid down back.
Tim English is also making the most of a new forward/ruck role and booted 3 Goals.
The Kangaroos were well beaten, but Jack Ziebell was probably their best with 33 Disposals.
Vote Chances
Jack Macrae – 33 Disposals (25 Effective and 13 Contested) 7 Clearances 9 Score Involvements, and 7 Ground Ball Gets
Tim English – 16 Disposals (13 Effective), 8 Marks (3 Contested) and 3 Goals
Alex Keath – 16 Disposals (15 Effective), 6 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks (3 Contested), 7 One Percenters and 6 Spoils
Projected Votes
1 Vote (W.Bulldogs) Josh Dunkley (1)
33 Disposals (28 Effective and 14 Contested), 5 Clearances, 8 Score Involvements, 14 Ground Ball Gets, 8 One Percenters and 1 Goal
2 Votes (W.Bulldogs) Adam Treloar (2)
27 Disposals, 9 Inside 50s, 12 Score Involvements, 558 Metres Gained and 3 Goals
Lock of the Week
3 Votes (W.Bulldogs) Josh Bruce (3) ⭐⭐⭐
21 Disposals (15 Effective and 11 Contested), 10 Marks (9 Marks Inside 50), 13 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets and 10 Goals
Note – Bruce kicked ten goals and generally forwards that bag at least six, have a decent shot at the maximum votes. It may have been an easy win, but Bruce had a day out and presented well all day. Lock this one in.
Adelaide vs Gold Coast
Adelaide 14.11 95 – Gold Coast 12.13 85
(Adelaide by 10 Points)
The Crows hosted the Suns and were tested all day, but managed to get the win.
Rory Sloane was influential in the middle of the ground, and Taylor Walker is having one of the finest starts to his career after yet another bag of 6 Goals.
Reilly O’Brien lifted when Jarrod Witts left the game injured, which significantly impacted the result. Rory Laird and Ben Keays impacted the middle, and Brodie Smith was again good in a half-back role.
For the Suns, Hugh Greenwood never stopped trying, and Brandon Ellis and Jack Bowes were a couple of their best players in the loss.
Vote Chances
Rory Laird – 28 Disposals (15 Contested), 5 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 9 Tackles and 26 Pressure Acts
Brodie Smith – 26 Disposals (10 Contested), 11 Intercept Possessions, 7 Inside 50s, 7 Rebound 50s, 9 Ground Ball Gets and 775 Metres Gained
Ben Keays – 26 Disposals (23 Effective), 5 Marks, 5 Inside 50s, 536 Metres Gained and 1 Goal
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Adelaide) Taylor Walker (7)
24 Disposals (10 Contested), 9 Marks (4 Contested and 4 Marks Inside 50), 6 Inside 50s, 12 Score Involvements, 504 Metres Gained and 6 Goals
2 Votes (Gold Coast) Hugh Greenwood (2)
23 Disposals (18 Contested), 10 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 12 Ground Ball Gets, 13 Tackles and 31 Pressure Acts
3 Votes (Adelaide) Rory Sloane (4) ⭐⭐
34 Disposals (27 Effective and 19 Contested), 11 Intercept Possessions, 7 Marks, 8 Clearances, 10 Score Involvements, and 12 Ground Ball Gets
Note – Sloane was excellent in this clash, but Tex Walker continued his good recent form and bagged another six goals. The leadership of Sloane and willingness to win the hardball stood out in this clash, and he used the football at high efficiency. A decent shot at the three votes in the win.
Richmond vs Sydney
Richmond 10.12 72 – Sydney 17.15 117
(Sydney by 45 Points)
The Swans produced a boilover at the MCG and defeated the reigning premiers.
Experienced campaigners Luke Parker and Josh Kennedy were again solid in the middle of the ground, and Callum Mills is enjoying more time in the middle.
The little known Sam Wicks stepped up in this clash, presenting the entire contest up forward, with 13 Marks and 3 Goals. Chad Warner well supported him, and the lively Tom Papley booted 4 Goals.
Hard to find any standouts in a disappointing effort from the Tigers, but Tom Lynch booted 3 Goals, and Jayden Short was ok down back.
Tom Papley – 17 Disposals, 8 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets and 4 Goals
Chad Warner – 20 Disposals (15 Effective), 5 Marks, 8 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles and 2 Goals
Josh Kennedy – 27 Disposals (15 Contested), 5 Marks, 7 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, and 12 Ground Ball Gets
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Sydney) Luke Parker (1)
29 Disposals (21 Effective and 15 Contested), 5 Marks, 5 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets and 1 Goal
2 Votes (Sydney) Callum Mills (5)
31 Disposals (26 Effective and 13 Contested), 8 Marks, 8 Clearances and 11 Score Involvements
3 Votes (Sydney) Sam Wicks (3) ⭐
21 Disposals (15 Effective), 13 Marks (5 Marks Inside 50), 8 Score Involvements and 3 Goals
Note – Wicks was lively all day up forward with 13 Marks, and he hit the scoreboard with three goals. Some of the more experienced Swans midfielders also made significant contributions, but Wicks seemed everywhere at times. Wicks gets the nod for the maximum votes, but this one could go a few ways.
Essendon vs St Kilda
Essendon 22.11 143 – St Kilda 9.14 68
(Essendon by 75 Points)
The Saints came into this clash as the heavy favourites, and many thought it would be an easy win. The exact opposite happened, and the Bombers bought the pressure to win the match by a significant margin.
Darcy Parish and Zach Merrett were brilliant in the middle of the ground, and Jordan Ridley was solid down back for the Bombers. Cale Hooker and Jake Stringer made the most of a Saints defence that lacked effort, and they kicked 7 Goals between them.
The only Saints player that can hold his head up high is Jack Steele, who won a lot of the football.
Vote Chances
Cale Hooker – 13 Disposals (10 Effective), 6 Marks (4 Marks Inside 50), 11 Score Involvements and 5 Goals
Jake Stringer – 12 Disposals (10 Effective), 4 Marks (3 Marks Inside 50), 5 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements and 4 Goals
Jack Steele – 35 Disposals (15 Contested), 5 Marks, 7 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Score Involvements and 1 Goal
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Essendon) Zach Merrett (1)
34 Disposals (28 Effective), 7 Marks, 4 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements and 490 Metres Gained
2 Votes (Essendon) Jordan Ridley (2)
35 Disposals (29 Effective), 9 Intercept Possessions, 10 Marks (2 Contested), 9 Rebound 50s, 483 Metres Gained, 7 Ground Ball Gets and 6 Spoils
3 Votes (Essendon) Darcy Parish (3) ⭐⭐
34 Disposals (12 Contested), 9 Marks, 10 Clearances, 10 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets and 542 Metres Gained
Note – Parish was superb in this clash and had an excellent first term. He was consistent throughout the contest and is a decent shot at the three votes. A noted vote-getter Zach Merrett will challenge and Jordan Ridley was very good down back, but Parish gets the nod with a solid performance at the stoppages.
West Coast vs Port Adelaide
West Coast 16.12 108 – Port Adelaide 11.5 71
(West Coast by 37 Points)
The Eagles toppled a decent Port Adelaide side and are looking the goods.
Luke Shuey, Andrew Gaff and Tim Kelly won a lot of the football in the middle of the ground, and Flying Liam Ryan took a mark of the year contender.
Not many shining lights in this clash for the Power, but Robbie Gray booted 3 Goals, and Karl Amon was busy all night.
Jack Redden – 31 Disposals (24 Effective and 14 Contested), 6 Marks, 9 Clearances, and 7 Ground Ball Gets
Nic Naitanui – 11 Disposals (9 Effective and 8 Contested), 4 Clearances and 13 Hit-outs to advantage
Liam Ryan – 13 Disposals (10 Effective), 5 Marks, 9 Score Involvements and 2 Goals
Projected Votes
1 Vote (West Coast) Tim Kelly (3)
28 Disposals (11 Contested), 6 Marks, 5 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets and 1 Goal
2 Votes (West Coast) Luke Shuey (2)
28 Disposals (22 Effective), 7 Marks, 7 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements and 6 Tackles
3 Votes (West Coast) Andrew Gaff ⭐⭐
36 Disposals (32 Effective), 13 Marks, 4 Inside 50s, 4 Tackles and 460 Metres Gained
Note – Gaff has been out of form, and it was obvious his teammates had a willingness to get him involved in this clash, and he had a big game. The amazing running power of Gaff was on show, and he had the football on a string in the win. If anybody can pinch the maximum votes in this one, it will be the Eagles captain Luke Shuey. A brilliant first game at winning the hardball and extracting it from congestion, but Gaff was awesome in the win.
Carlton vs Fremantle
Carlton 16.13 109 – Fremantle 9.10 64
(Carlton by 45 Points)
The Blues came out to play in this match and made easy work of a disappointing Fremantle team.
Harry McKay was the standout with 7 Goals, and Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh won the midfield battle.
Liam Jones and Sam Docherty were solid down back, and former Cat Lachie Fogarty showed plenty up forward for the Blues.
Hard to find a decent player for Fremantle, but Reece Conca and Luke Ryan were pretty good.
Vote Chances
Sam Walsh – 37 Disposals (28 Effective and 13 Contested), 5 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, and 8 Ground Ball Gets
Lachie Fogarty – 25 Disposals (20 Effective), 7 Marks (3 Marks Inside 50), 5 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements and 1 Goal
Sam Docherty – 28 Disposals (24 Effective), 6 Intercept Possessions, 12 Marks and 6 Score Involvements
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Carlton) Liam Jones (1)
20 Disposals (17 Effective and 10 Contested), 16 Intercept Possessions, 9 Marks (7 Intercept Marks), 6 Inside 50s, 5 Rebound 50s, 605 Metres Gained, 11 One Percenters and 7 Spoils
2 Votes (Carlton) Patrick Cripps (2)
34 Disposals (18 Contested), 6 Marks, 11 Clearances, 10 Score Involvements and 2 Goals
3 Votes (Carlton) Harry McKay (3) ⭐⭐
17 Disposals, 10 Marks (9 Marks Inside 50), 13 Score Involvements and 7 Goals
Note – The Blues made easy work of the Dockers, and McKay snagged seven goals to be the favourite for the three votes. Patrick Cripps also played his best game of the season, but seven goals and a dominant show up forward gets the nod here.
GWS vs Melbourne
GWS 11.2 68 – Melbourne 15.12 102
(Melbourne by 34 Points)
The Giants got the early jump on the Demons, but the Demons started playing confident football and were too good after four quarters.
Max Gawn dominated the ruck, and Christian Petracca and Jack Viney were a couple of their better midfielders. Ed Langdon provided a lot of run and carry, and Kysaiah Pickett was dangerous up forward with 4 Goals.
For the Giants, Tim Taranto was their best in the middle of the ground, and Toby Greene booted 5 Goals.
Vote Chances
Jack Viney – 24 Disposals (14 Contested), 8 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 8 Tackles and 26 Pressure Acts
Kysaiah Pickett – 13 Disposals (10 Effective), 7 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets and 4 Goals
Tim Taranto – 32 Disposals, 5 Marks, 10 Inside 50s, 5 Rebound 50s, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 601 Metres Gained, 5 Tackles and 32 Pressure Acts
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Melbourne) Christian Petracca (3)
29 Disposals (10 Contested), 8 Marks, 6 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements and 1 Goal
2 Votes (GWS) Toby Greene (2)
17 Disposals (11 Contested), 4 Marks, 8 Score Involvements and 5 Goals
3 Votes (Melbourne) Max Gawn (3) ⭐⭐⭐
24 Disposals (13 Contested), 9 Marks (5 Contested and 3 Marks Inside 50), 7 Clearances, 9 Score Involvements, 13 Hit-outs to advantage and 2 Goals
Note – Gawn won the ruck battle and won a heap of contested ball. He took a stack of contested marks and hit the scoreboard with a couple of goals. It is hard to see anybody else stealing the maximum votes off him in this one.
Geelong vs Hawthorn
Geelong 10.9 69 – Hawthorn 9.10 64
(Geelong by 5 Points)
The Easter Monday clash probably wasn’t the prettiest game to watch, but it was close, and the Cats got the win.
Cam Guthrie bought his own football with 43 Disposals, and he was well supported in the middle by Mitch Duncan.
Mark O’Connor had the job of tagging Tom Mitchell, and he won the battle whilst winning a lot of football himself.
For the Hawks, Jaeger O’Meara and Chad Wingard were busy all day, and Changkuoth Jiath provided some electrifying run and carry down back.
Vote Chances
Mitch Duncan – 37 Disposals, 10 Marks, 5 Inside 50s, 4 Rebound 50s, 7 Ground Ball Gets and 566 Metres Gained
Chad Wingard – 22 Disposals (11 Contested), 6 Marks, 4 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets and 1 Goal
Changkuoth Jiath – 23 Disposals (19 Effective), 10 Marks (4 Intercept Marks), 4 Inside 50s, 6 Rebound 50s and 445 Metres Gained
Projected Votes
1 Vote (Geelong) Mark O’Connor (1)
26 Disposals (21 Effective and 11 Contested), 7 Marks, 8 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 8 Tackles and 26 Pressure Acts
2 Votes (Hawthorn) Jaeger O’Meara (3)
34 Disposals (26 Effective and 17 Contested), 8 Marks, 13 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 6 Rebound 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets and 5 Tackles
3 Votes (Geelong) Cam Guthrie (5) ⭐⭐⭐
43 Disposals (35 Effective and 15 Contested), 11 Marks, 10 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, and 10 Ground Ball Gets
Note – Guthrie was everywhere in this clash and hopefully got tested after the match for leather poisoning. A brilliant display in the win and a red hot chance for the maximum votes.
To see projected votes for the 2020 AFL Season, click the link, Brownlow Medal Predictor 2020 or find them on the menu bar.
To see the projected votes for previous rounds in 2021, click the links on the bottom of this post, find them in the menu bar or use the TAGS at the bottom.
Cheers, and always remember to gamble responsibly.
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