Brownlow Tracker, Round 11 2021




Brownlow Medal Predictor Round 11 2021
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Brownlow Tracker, Round 11 2021

Round 11 is done and dusted, and it was a round in which one of the more courageous marks the game has seen took place.

Jack Riewoldt produced a best on ground effort against the Crows, but the match will be remembered for taking one of the best marks of the year.

We also have a runaway leader of the Brownlow Predictor, but he will have stiff competition with a Bomber and a Bulldog beginning to make some ground. 

Here is the Brownlow Medal Predictor for Round 11 of the 2021 AFL Season.

Be sure to check back each week of the 2021 AFL Season for an in-depth look at some of the better players for each round and who should get the votes.

Round by Round analysis of the Brownlow Medal Count. Who gets the Brownlow Votes, and who has the best chance to become the Brownlow Medal Winner on Brownlow Medal Night.

This Brownlow Medal Tracker features the players that have the best chance of getting the votes and three other players that are considered a vote chance.

A Star ⭐ rating is used to show the confidence level of each three-vote prediction.

⭐ = Tough Game to Pick

⭐⭐ = A Decent Chance

⭐⭐⭐ = Should get the Three Votes


Brownlow Medal Predictor Round 11 2021

Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne

Western Bulldogs 8.11 59 – Melbourne 13.9 87

(Melbourne by 28 Points)

This was a much-anticipated matchup, but the Demons proved the better side with more contributors both back and forward, and their star players having good games.

Clayton Oliver continued his impressive form in the middle of the ground, whilst Max Gawn, James Harmes and Christian Petracca had a big influence on the result.

Forward Tom McDonald presented well up forward, and Jake Lever and Steven May continue to be a couple of the best defenders in the game at the minute.

The usual suspects for the Bulldogs, with Marcus Bontempelli and Jack Macrae racking up the footy, whilst Bailey Dale continues his breakout season on the defensive end.

Vote Chances

Jack Macrae – 36 Disposals (11 Contested), 7 Marks, 6 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 9 Tackles and 488 Metres Gained

Marcus Bontempelli – 30 Disposals (13 Contested), 6 Marks, 5 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 8 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 26 Pressure Acts and 6 One Percenters

James Harmes – 23 Disposals (16 Effective and 11 Contested), 5 Marks, 5 Clearances, 5 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles, 24 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Melbourne) Christian Petracca (12)

24 Disposals (18 Effective and 17 Contested), 6 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 12 Ground Ball Gets, 25 Pressure Acts, 427 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

2 Votes (Melbourne) Max Gawn (8)

21 Disposals (14 Effective and 13 Contested), 5 Marks (4 Contested), 5 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 8 Hit-outs to advantage, 5 Spoils and 1 Goal

3 Votes (Melbourne) Clayton Oliver (21) ⭐

33 Disposals (28 Effective and 12 Contested), 5 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 5 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 23 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal Assist

Note – The Demons had many contributors in this match, and it is difficult to split the votes. Clayton Oliver got better as the match went on, but will have competition for the maximum votes in this clash.


Collingwood vs Geelong

Collingwood 6.15 51 – Geelong 8.13 61

(Geelong by 10 Points)

The Cats managed to get the win in a match where both sides tried to control the football. It was ugly to watch, but at least the Pies hung in there and made a match of it.

Tom Hawkins was the best forward on the ground, creating many scoring chances and hitting the scoreboard with 3 Goals.

Brandon Parfitt was impressive in the middle of the ground and was well supported by Joel Selwood.

Zach Tuohy continues to get a lot of the footy and use it effectively, whilst Tom Stewart had an impact on the back-half.

A switch to the midfield got Jordan De Goey in the match, and he managed to snag a few late goals. Other contributors for the Pies were defenders Chris Mayne and Darcy Moore, who both got a lot of the football.

Vote Chances

Jordan De Goey – 26 Disposals (18 Effective), 11 Marks (3 Marks Inside 50), 4 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 449 Metres Gained and 2 Goals

Chris Mayne – 32 Disposals (31 Effective), 6 Intercept Possessions, 11 Marks, 6 Rebound 50s and 414 Metres Gained

Zach Tuohy – 27 Disposals (24 Effective), 5 Intercept Possessions, 8 Marks (3 Intercept Marks), 10 Rebound 50s, 7 Score Involvements and 616 Metres Gained

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Geelong) Joel Selwood (8)

26 Disposals (19 Effective and 11 Contested), 4 Marks, 6 Clearances, 9 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles and 1 Goal Assist

2 Votes (Geelong) Brandon Parfitt (5)

30 Disposals (23 Effective and 12 Contested), 5 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 544 Metres Gained and 3 Goal Assists

3 Votes (Geelong) Tom Hawkins (3) ⭐

21 Disposals (15 Effective), 7 Marks (3 Marks Inside 50), 12 Score Involvements, 4 Hit-outs to advantage and 3 Goals

Note –  Another tough match to split the votes, but the class of Hawkins up forward stands out, and he his never afraid of using teammates to create scoring chances. Was consistent throughout the contest and probably the main difference in the end.


Brisbane vs GWS

Brisbane 19.15 129 – GWS 10.5 65 

(Brisbane by 64 Points)

The Lions made easy work of the Giants and are becoming one of the teams to beat after the rough start.

Mitch Robinson was a standout in this clash with a massive goal to finish the half, but he continued his solid form into the second-half and managed to snag 4 Goals.

Dayne Zorko was again prolific in the middle, winning a lot of disposals and creating scoring chances. The big Ruckman Oscar McInerney won the ruck battle, and defenders Harris Andrews and Marcus Adams were solid down back.

The Giants were well beaten, but Josh Kelly, Callan Ward and Tim Taranto all won a lot of the football.

Vote Chances

Jarryd Lyons 25 Disposals (12 Contested), 6 Clearances, 6 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets and 25 Pressure Acts

Josh Kelly 26 Disposals (18 Effective and 10 Contested), 6 Clearances, 5 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles and 2 Goals

Callan Ward – 32 Disposals (26 Effective and 12 Contested), 8 Marks (2 Contested), 5 Clearances, 5 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets and 2 Goals

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Brisbane) Oscar McInerney (1)

20 Disposals (14 Contested), 4 Marks (2 Contested), 4 Clearances, 9 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets and 1 Goal

2 Votes (Brisbane) Dayne Zorko (8)

35 Disposals (24 Effective and 15 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 6 Marks (2 Intercept Marks), 6 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 12 Score Involvements, 14 Ground Ball Gets, 23 Pressure Acts, 584 Metres Gained and 2 Goals

3 Votes (Brisbane) Mitch Robinson (3) ⭐⭐⭐

30 Disposals (23 Effective), 8 Intercept Possessions, 12 Marks (4 Intercept Marks and 3 Marks Inside 50), 9 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements 689 Metres Gained and 4 Goals

Note – Robinson was a standout in this clash and will get noticed with 30 Disposals and 4 Goals. He was dangerous the entire match and should definitely get the three votes based on his impact.


St Kilda vs North Melbourne

St Kilda 12.16 88 – North Melbourne 10.8 68

(St Kilda by 20 Points)

It was an ugly match and the Saints led for most of the contest, but the Roos hung around.

Luke Dunstan got the job of tagging the extracter Ben Cunnington and won the battle, whilst winning a lot of the football.

Jack Steele was again one of the Saints best, but an unlikely former Kangaroo Mason Wood stood up when the game was up for grabs early.

Aaron Hall again won plenty of the footy on the back-half, but it was Taryn Thomas that impressed for the Roos as the match wore on, and he hit the scoreboard a couple of times to impress.

Vote Chances

Brad Crouch – 26 Disposals (12 Contested), 4 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 10 Tackles (2 Tackles Inside 50), 26 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal

Mason Wood – 18 Disposals (14 Effective), 8 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 9 Score Involvements, 4 Tackles and 3 Goals

Aaron Hall – 33 Disposals (27 Effective), 7 Marks, 12 Rebound 50s, 4 Tackles and 852 Metres Gained

Projected Votes

1 Vote (North Melbourne) Taryn Thomas (1)

17 Disposals (14 Effective), 5 Marks (2 Contested and 2 Marks Inside 50), 5 Clearances, 9 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 22 Pressure Acts and 2 Goals

2 Votes (St Kilda) Jack Steele (9)

24 Disposals (17 Effective and 15 Contested), 7 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 12 Tackles, 24 Pressure Acts and 401 Metres Gained

3 Votes (St Kilda) Luke Dunstan (3) ⭐⭐

26 Disposals (18 Effective), 6 Marks, 7 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 13 Tackles (3 Tackles Inside 50), 29 Pressure Acts and 431 Metres Gained

Note – Dunstan kept Cunnington out of this match and won a lot of the football himself. The forgotten Saint continually extracted the football, all whilst trying to contain one of the best Kangaroos mids. Should get the three based on the impact it had on the match.


Gold Coast vs Hawthorn

Gold Coast 17.11 113 – Hawthorn 11.10 76

(Gold Coast by 37 Points)

The Suns got the early break on the Hawks, and it was Izak Rankine that impressed early with a few quick Goals.

Midfielder Touk Miller is having his best season and again won a lot of football, whilst defender Jack Lukosuis used the footy well and set up play from the back-half.

The Hawks were never really in the match, but Chad Wingard and Ben McEvoy were probably two of their best players.

Vote Chances

Brandon Ellis – 28 Disposals (20 Effective), 5 Intercept Possessions, 10 Marks, 4 Rebound 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 518 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

Ben King – 14 Disposals (10 Effective), 8 Marks (5 Marks Inside 50), 10 Score Involvements 5 Ground Ball Gets, 2 Goal Assists and 4 Goals

David Swallow – 25 Disposals (12 Contested), 7 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 10 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles and 2 Goal Assists

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Gold Coast) Jack Lukosius (1)

27 Disposals (21 Effective), 7 Intercept Possessions, 14 Marks (4 Intercept Marks), 8 Rebound 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 737 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

2 Votes (Gold Coast) Izak Rankine (2)

19 Disposals (13 Effective), 6 Marks, 4 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets and 4 Goals

3 Votes (Gold Coast) Touk Miller (11) ⭐⭐

37 Disposals (27 Effective and 10 Contested), 9 Marks, 4 Clearances, 10 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles, 26 Pressure Acts, 568 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

Note – Another solid game in the middle of the ground for Miller racking up plenty of the football and creating scoring chances. Some of the Suns forwards had good matches, though, so the three votes are no certainty, but he was the best player on the ground.


West Coast vs Essendon

West Coast 11.5 71 – Essendon 12.15 87

(Essendon by 16 Points)

It was a wet match out west, and the Bombers made the most of coming up against a side that is missing some key personnel. The Eagles led early, but the Bombers took control as the match went on thanks to an impressive performance from their midfield.

Darcy Parish was again brilliant, whilst Zach Merrett and Andrew McGrath were important in the closing stages and helped set up the win.

Nic Naitanui again won the Ruck battle, and Dom Sheed won a lot of the football, but the Bombers may get all the votes in this clash.

Vote Chances

Nic Naitanui – 20 Disposals (17 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 8 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 5 Ground Ball Gets, 17 Hit-outs to advantage, 6 Tackles, 6 One Percenters and 3 Spoils

Dyson Heppell – 22 Disposals (20 Effective), 12 Intercept Possessions, 9 Marks (6 Intercept Marks), 6 Tackles and 408 Metres Gained

Kyle Langford – 28 Disposals (24 Effective), 9 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 5 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 2 Goal Assists and 1 Goal

Projected Votes

1 Vote (West Coast) Dom Sheed (7)

43 Disposals (15 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 6 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 5 Rebound 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 613 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

2 Votes (Essendon) Zach Merrett (10)

37 Disposals (27 Effective), 6 Intercept Possession, 5 Marks, 8 Inside 50s, 5 Rebound 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 5 Tackles and 565 Metres Gained

3 Votes (Essendon) Darcy Parish (16) ⭐⭐

36 Disposals (29 Effective and 17 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 4 Marks, 11 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 8 Score Involvements, 13 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 26 Pressure Acts and 502 Metres Gained

Note – Another excellent display from Parish with a lot of disposals in which the majority were effective. He has a great work ethic and was a big reason the Bombers were able to pinch the match.


Richmond vs Adelaide

Richmond 17.9 111 – Adelaide 12.11 83

(Richmond by 28 Points)

The Crows got off to a good start in this one, but the Tigers were too good in the end.

Jack Riewoldt was a clear standout in this match and will be difficult to beat this season for the Mark of the Year.

Riewoldt took 14 Marks and booted 5 Goals to be the best player on the ground.

A young Tigers forward Callum Coleman-Jones stepped up with 4 Goals, whilst Trent Cotchin and Shai Bolton were again good in the middle and got better as the game went on.

For the Crows, Taylor Walker had an excellent first half, whilst Rory Sloane and Ben Keayes played a big part in the middle to keep the Crows in the match.

Vote Chances

Shai Bolton – 23 Disposals, 8 Marks (2 Marks Inside 50), 5 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 497 Metres Gained, 2 Goal Assists and 1 Goal

Ben Keayes – 31 Disposals (11 Contested), 11 Clearances, 7 Inside 50s, 7 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 9 Tackles, 24 Pressure Acts and 446 Metres Gained

Taylor Walker – 16 Disposals (12 Effective and 10 Contested), 6 Marks (3 Marks Inside 50 and 2 Contested), 11 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets and 4 Goals

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Richmond) Trent Cotchin (1)

20 Disposals (12 Contested), 4 Marks, 6 Clearances, 4 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 8 Ground Ball Gets, 10 Tackles, 22 Pressure Acts and 1 Goal

2 Votes (Adelaide) Rory Sloane (6)

29 Disposals (16 Contested), 7 Intercept Possessions, 9 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 12 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 24 Pressure Acts, 595 Metres Gained and 2 Goal Assists

Lock of the Week

Lock of the Week 2021

3 Votes (Richmond) Jack Riewoldt (6) ⭐⭐⭐

20 Disposals, 14 Marks (8 Marks Inside 50), 5 Inside 50s, 11 Score Involvements, 547 Metres Gained and 5 Goals

Note – Riewoldt took one of the great courageous marks the game has seen and had the most significant influence on the result. He gets the lock of the week.


Sydney vs Carlton

Sydney 15.10 100 – Carlton 11.12 78

(Sydney by 22 Points)

The Swans held off a spirited Carlton side and won the match by a predictable margin.

Issac Heeney had a big influence on the match and managed to boot a few goals, whilst Luke Parker and Josh Kennedy were good in the middle of the ground.

Tom Papley was dangerous up forward for most of the contest, and Harry Cunningham found himself free on a regular occurrence and racked up a lot of the football.

The usual best at the Blues, with Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh both having decent games.

Vote Chances

Josh Kennedy – 19 Disposals (16 Effective and 13 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 6 Score Involvements, 11 Ground Ball Gets, 10 Tackles, 24 Pressure Acts and 2 Goals

Harry Cunningham – 27 Disposals (24 Effective ), 8 Intercept Possessions, 10 Marks (3 Intercept Marks), 6 Rebound 50s, 6 Score Involvements and 5 Ground Ball Gets and

Tom Papley – 15 Disposals, 6 Marks, 4 Inside 50s, 9 Score Involvements, 5 Tackles (4 Tackles Inside 50), 1 Goal Assist and 3 Goals

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Sydney) Luke Parker (5)

23 Disposals (15 Contested), 8 Clearances, 6 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 9 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 407 Metres Gained, 3 Goal Assists and 1 Goal

2 Votes (Carlton) Patrick Cripps (6)

27 Disposals (18 Contested), 6 Intercept Possessions, 7 Clearances, 5 Inside 50s, 6 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 528 Metres Gained and 3 Goals

3 Votes (Sydney) Issac Heeney (6) ⭐⭐⭐

22 Disposals, 14 Marks (4 Marks Inside 50 and 3 Contested), 6 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 562 Metres Gained, 2 Goal Assists and 3 Goals

Note – When Heeney gets the football, he has an impact and was dangerous for most of the match. Gets noticed because he hits the scoreboard and does poll well in games in which he has an impact.


Port Adelaide vs Fremantle

Port Adelaide 18.7 115 – Fremantle 9.15 69

(Port Adelaide by 46 Points)

The Power got off to a fast start, and Karl Amon won a lot of the football in the opening stages. The early lead was enough, but the Dockers were pretty good for the final three quarters, but never really had a sniff at victory.

Ollie Wines as again at it in the middle of the ground, and Charlie Dixon gave the thin Dockers defence many headaches and presented well.

The work ethic of Sam Powell-Pepper also stood out, and the class of Robbie Gray was on show.

For the Dockers, Nat Fyfe was again one of their best, but Adam Cerra, Andrew Brayshaw and James Aish helped the scoreline become more respectable as the match wore on.

Vote Chances

Karl Amon – 27 Disposals (18 Effective), 5 Marks, 7 Inside 50s, 5 Score Involvements, 6 Tackles, 585 Metres Gained and 1 Goal

Robbie Gray – 23 Disposals, 4 Marks (3 Marks Inside 50), 4 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 5 Ground Ball Gets and 2 Goals

Nat Fyfe – 20 Disposals (14 Effective and 14 Contested), 5 Intercept Possessions, 4 Clearances, 9 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 6 Tackles, 28 Pressure Acts and 2 Goals

Projected Votes

1 Vote (Port Adelaide) Sam Powell-Pepper (1)

20 Disposals (17 Effective), 6 Inside 50s, 10 Score Involvements, 7 Ground Ball Gets, 5 Tackles, 29 Pressure Acts, 3 Goal Assists and 3 Goals

2 Votes (Port Adelaide) Charlie Dixon (2)

18 Disposals (14 Effective and 14 Contested), 5 Marks (4 Contested and 3 Marks Inside 50), 8 Score Involvements, 6 Ground Ball Gets, 4 Tackles, 4 Spoils and 3 Goals

3 Votes (Port Adelaide) Ollie Wines (11) ⭐⭐⭐

35 Disposals (30 Effective and 19 Contested), 9 Intercept Possessions, 8 Clearances, 8 Inside 50s, 14 Score Involvements, 12 Ground Ball Gets, 7 Tackles and 3 Goal Assists

Note – A brilliant match from Wines as he dominated the middle of the ground and featured in all the key statistical areas. Will be the favourite for the maximum votes and should get them.


Leaderboard – Round 11

Top 10

Brownlow Medal Predictor Leaderboard 2021
NameProjected Votes
Clayton Oliver 21
Darcy Parish16
Marcus Bontempelli15
Jarryd Lyons14
Cam Guthrie14
Jack Macrae14
Hugh McCluggage12
Christian Petracca12
Touk Miller12
Ollie Wines11

Click the Brownlow Medal Predictor 2021 on the menu bar to see the projected votes from previous rounds. You can also click the TAGS at the bottom of this post or use the links below.

Feel free to leave any comments, questions or who you think should get the votes at the bottom of this post.

Always good to hear from fellow footy fans.

Cheers and always remember to gamble responsibly

Dailysportsbuddy.com

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About dailysportsbuddy 281 Articles
Chris from Dailysportsbuddy is a sports enthusiast with a specific focus on AFL, Basketball and Golf. With a keen interest in sports statistics, he follows the Brownlow Medal closely and has produced a model that focuses on analysing matches, analysing previous counts and using key statistics to help determine which players have the best chance of polling in the count.

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